Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Military Aid News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"As a single human being, [Elon Musk] is, I would argue, outside of maybe the president, maybe Xi Jinping, a few others, he's the most powerful human being on Earth."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to ATP Geopolitics. It's his birthday, he's been "cranking out content" and there's lots to discuss on the subject of military aid. Jonathan mentions he has just enjoyed vegan scones and jam with vegan creme fraiche, revealing his preference for the Cornish method (jam then cream) over the Devon method (cream then jam) - although the vegan creme fraiche made it difficult to follow the Devon method this time.
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USA - Biden Administration announces $5.5bn military aid package for Ukraine
🎦 01:20-04:29⏩
The Biden administration has announced a $5.5bn military aid package split between Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) and Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). Jonathan explains that PDA uses existing US stockpiles whilst USAI funds are used to order equipment from US defense manufacturers. Jonathan notes this is good news as this money must be spent before the end of Biden's term on 30 September 2024.
- $375m of PDA has already been allocated (PDA66) and includes:
- JSOWs (Joint Standoff Warheads)
- Ammunition
- 150 x M1117 Guardian Armoured Security Vehicles (ASV)
- MRAPS (Mine Resistant Ambush Protected)
- Light Tactical Vehicles
- Armoured bridge insistence systems
- Patrol boats
- The remaining $5.5bn of PDA is expected to be announced on 7 September 2024 and is expected to include:
- TOW missiles for Bradley Fighting Vehicles
- HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) ammunition
- Javelin Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs)
- Anti-Tank platforms and munitions
- Mine Resistant and Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles
- Light Tactical Vehicles
- Small arms
- Patrol boats
- Demolition equipment
- Spare parts
- Artillery ammunition
USA - Colby Badouin (Twitter) provides analysis of Biden's military aid package
🎦 04:30-08:25⏩
Jonathan refers to analysis by Colby Badouin (Twitter).
- Of the $5.5bn military aid package, $2.5bn will come from USAI and $2.4bn from PDA.
- The US Department of Defense will refurbish and supply an additional Patriot battery to Ukraine. Jonathan is critical of the delay in providing this, highlighting that Ukraine has been requesting this for months. Jonathan believes this is a political decision and that the DoD could have provided this sooner.
- 18 Ukrainian pilots will travel to the US in 2025 to begin training on F-16s. Jonathan is critical of the delay, pointing out that Ukraine has been requesting this for months, that this is an empty promise given the outcome of the US election is unknown, and that a new president could cancel this.
- Biden will convene a Ramstein meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG) in October 2024. This will be attended by defense ministers and military chiefs. Jonathan believes this is a positive step and a sign that support for Ukraine is being stepped up.
- Remaining USAI funds will be allocated by the end of 2024. This means that the DoD has until the end of the year to spend the remaining USAI funds rather than by the end of Biden's term (30 September 2024). However, Jonathan believes that it is unlikely the DoD will meet this deadline given the glacial pace of contracting, which is impacting the speed at which Ukraine is receiving aid.
USA - Viewer examines $61bn aid package - How is US military aid funded?
🎦 08:25-12:16⏩
Jonathan highlights a comment from viewer Flux Call thanking him for his videos which have helped him understand how US aid for Ukraine is funded.
- The viewer now understands that the $61bn appropriations bill does not mean the US is sending suitcases full of cash to Ukraine but that much of it relates to spending within the US.
- Furthermore, the $61bn figure is misleading as it is based on the book value of equipment (some of which is obsolete) rather than the actual value.
- Sending obsolete equipment to Ukraine allows the US to replace this, although this is not always necessary.
- For example, the Bradley Fighting Vehicles were already due to be replaced so this merely expedites the process.
- In some cases, equipment has to be decommissioned.
- There is an opportunity cost for the US as it could have sold the equipment instead.
- Jonathan uses the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) to explain how this process works:
- The US sends HIMARS rockets from existing stockpiles to Ukraine.
- Older HIMARS are replaced with a newer version.
- This means that the money is spent upgrading the US military.
- The orders are placed with US defense companies, providing jobs and tax revenue.
- This money then multiplies throughout the economy.
- Of the $61bn appropriations bill, only $20-25bn relates to military aid.
- Jonathan is critical of the Biden administration's inability to communicate this to the American public and to counter the false narrative pushed by (some) Republicans that this money would be better spent on US hospitals. He believes this has allowed this misinformation to be weaponised. Jonathan is passionate on this subject!
USA - Zelensky confirms $7.9bn military aid package from USA
🎦 12:16-13:04⏩
Zelensky has confirmed a $7.9bn military aid package from the US that includes:
- Patriot air and missile defence battery
- Additional air defence systems and interceptors
- Drones
- Long-range missiles
- Air-to-ground munitions
- Funds to strengthen Ukraine's defence industry
- Training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16s
- New sanctions targeting Russia's defence industry and cryptocurrency networks
USA - Pentagon proposes sending white phosphorus munitions to Ukraine
🎦 13:09-15:57⏩
NBC reports that senior Pentagon officials have proposed supplying white phosphorus munitions to Ukraine, although the White House has rejected this.
- Jonathan explains that both sides are already using these horrific incendiary weapons, which are legal provided they are not used against civilians or in civilian areas.
- This leads to a discussion about the ethics of warfare:
- Is being burnt alive by white phosphorus any more horrific than being killed by a mortar bomb?
- This leads to a discussion on chemical weapons which, whilst horrific, are no more or less horrific than being killed by a sniper, which is legal.
- Jonathan questions why some weapons are considered more acceptable than others and argues that these distinctions are arbitrary.
- Jonathan acknowledges that these are complex moral discussions.
- Jonathan highlights the following from Andrew Perpetua (Twitter), who is furious that the US and its allies have not provided enough smoke rounds which are essential. He believes that Ukraine has been provided with some but that they need far more.
USA/UK - Biden Administration considers allowing Ukraine to strike targets in Russia
🎦 15:57-16:49⏩
- The New York Times reports that the Biden administration is considering giving Ukraine permission to strike targets within Russia with Storm Shadow and Scalp cruise missiles (which are British and French respectively).
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed that the use of long-range missiles will be discussed with Zelensky.
- Jonathan notes that the UK is struggling to manufacture enough Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles.
- UK Defence Secretary John Healey revealed at the Labour party conference that Ukraine does not have enough personnel to train, suggesting that Ukraine is struggling to replace its losses.
UK - UK forced to reduce military aid to Ukraine due to depleted stockpiles
🎦 16:49-21:54⏩
The UK's National Audit Office (NAO) recently published a report that revealed that the UK was forced to substantially reduce military aid to Ukraine in mid-2023 because the Ministry of Defence (MoD) was concerned that this would impact the UK's military readiness.
- The UK is one of the highest military spenders globally, yet the NAO report suggests that 14 years of Conservative rule has resulted in depleted stockpiles of military equipment.
- Jonathan is furious that the UK does not have the resources to equip its own armed forces.
- Jonathan discusses the UK's procurement processes with his father, a Navy veteran, who is critical of how the UK spends money on large projects. He cites a recent example of a tunnel costing hundreds of millions of pounds that is a fraction of the size and cost of a Norwegian tunnel.
- Despite his political affiliations, Jonathan praises the new Labour government for at least attempting to address these issues, highlighting:
- Defence Secretary John Healey travelled to Odesa the day after being appointed.
- Starmer hosted a NATO conference and a defence summit with European partners.
- The new Labour government has pledged to expedite the delivery of equipment promised to Ukraine by the previous Conservative government.
- However, Jonathan is concerned that Labour will struggle to balance the books given the state of the economy and pressures on the public purse, highlighting that the UK cannot afford to keep “robbing Peter to pay Paul”.
UK - UK increases AS90 self-propelled gun deliveries to Ukraine
🎦 21:54-22:54⏩
- The new Labour government has pledged to deliver 12 AS90 155mm self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine within 100 days of taking office.
- This has now been increased to 16, with 10 already delivered and the remaining 6 due in the coming weeks.
- Jonathan explains that the AS90s are being replaced by the RCH155, which is based on the Boxer armoured fighting vehicle (AFV) and is being manufactured in partnership with Germany.
- Jonathan believes that the AS90s, despite their age, have proved to be a useful addition to the Ukrainian military.
Germany - Germany announces €620m aid package for Ukraine
🎦 22:54-25:51⏩
- Germany has announced €620m ($692m) in military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.
- This comprises:
- €400m ($446m) in military aid. This was made possible because the energy costs for the Bundeswehr were overestimated, freeing up funds that were then allocated to Ukraine, demonstrating how important this is to Germany. This will fund additional air defence systems, tanks, drones, ammunition, and spare parts, although Jonathan suspects that much of this will be spent on spare parts given the relatively modest sum available.
- €117m ($130m) in aid for the coming winter. This comprises:
- €100m previously announced by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock
- €70m to provide cities and municipalities with smaller combined heat and power plants, boilers, generators, and energy systems
- €50m to treat wounded Ukrainian soldiers in Germany. Jonathan explains this is a win-win for both countries as it will help stimulate the German economy.
International - 30+ countries pledge support for Ukraine's post-war reconstruction
🎦 27:39-28:10⏩
More than 30 countries (including 27 EU member states) have signed a joint declaration pledging support for Ukraine's post-war reconstruction at a meeting in New York.
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France - France announces aid package for Ukraine's healthcare system
🎦 28:10-29:22⏩
- France has announced a financial package to help Ukraine rebuild its healthcare system.
- This will provide funds and loans and will facilitate access to equipment and supplies from French healthcare companies, with the support of the French Healthcare Association, a public-private partnership supported by the French state.
- Jonathan believes this is another example of a win-win situation for both countries, benefiting the French economy as much as it benefits Ukraine.
Germany - Germany approves €70m winter aid package
🎦 29:22-29:43⏩
Jonathan refers again to the €70m previously mentioned that Germany has earmarked to help Ukraine survive the winter.
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Ukraine - Ukraine deploys innovative remote-controlled vehicles
🎦 29:43-30:26⏩
Ukraine is deploying innovative remote-controlled vehicles capable of travelling up to 100km/h (62mph) that can be controlled over the internet via 4G, 5G, and Starlink, costing around $10,000 per vehicle. This will allow Ukraine to safely deliver supplies to the front lines.
- Jonathan compares this with comments made by Robert Magier, who believes that AI will eventually play a much larger role, eliminating the need for humans on the front lines, particularly for drones.
- Jonathan is impressed by the pace and scale of innovation in Ukraine.
Sweden/International - Saab to establish manufacturing facility in Ukraine?
🎦 30:28-31:27⏩
Swedish defence manufacturer Saab is exploring the possibility of establishing a manufacturing facility in Ukraine, demonstrating their commitment to supporting Ukraine's defence industry.
- Jonathan suspects that this may be related to the Gripen fighter jet that Saab manufactures, noting that there have been rumours that Ukrainian pilots are already training on the Gripen and that Sweden recently supplied spare parts and maintenance equipment for Gripens.
Germany - Rheinmetall receives order for hundreds of thousands of artillery mines
🎦 31:27-32:33⏩
Rheinmetall has received an order for hundreds of thousands of artillery mines worth tens of millions of euros from a NATO country.
- Whilst the destination is unknown, Jonathan believes that it is likely these will end up in Ukraine.
- Jonathan explains that these are likely to be RAAM (Remote Anti-Armour Mine) artillery shells, which are particularly effective as they can be used to re-mine areas.
International - Companies manufacturing and repairing equipment in Ukraine
🎦 32:33-34:17⏩
Jonathan highlights the following companies that are currently manufacturing or repairing weapons in Ukraine:
- Germany: Rheinmetall (tanks, armoured personnel carriers (APCs), air defence, ammunition)
- UK: BAE Systems (howitzers)
- USA: Northrop Grumman (ammunition)
- Canada: Rochelle (Senator Armoured Personnel Carrier)
- Turkey: Baikar (Bayraktar TB2)
- Czech Republic:
- Ceska Zbrojovka (CZ) (cartridges and assault rifles)
- Celian (unspecified)
- Excalibur Army (unspecified)
- Estonia: Frankenberg Technologies (air defence)
Russia/USA - Russia installs Starlink on Shahed drones
🎦 34:17-38:02⏩
- Russia has started using Starlink on its Shahed suicide drones, increasing their range to 2,000km (1,243 miles) and making them more difficult to jam.
- Jonathan explains that Russia has been using mobile phone masts to provide navigation for its drones, which Ukraine has been able to spoof, causing them to crash in Russia and Belarus.
- Jonathan is concerned that Russia is using US technology to attack Ukraine, questioning what, if anything, can be done to prevent this and criticising Elon Musk for failing to act, highlighting that he is afraid to criticise Musk.
Elon Musk - Is Elon Musk too powerful?
🎦 38:02-39:17⏩
Jonathan expresses concerns about the amount of power concentrated in the hands of a few extraordinarily wealthy individuals such as Elon Musk, questioning whether this is something that should concern us.
- He highlights that Musk's personal fortune is greater than the GDP of many nations and that he is answerable to no one, comparing him to the rulers of the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
- As the owner of Starlink, Jonathan believes that Musk is arguably the most powerful person on Earth, surpassing even Biden and Xi Jinping.
- He warns that this power will become absolute should he become embedded in a future US administration.
China/Russia - Russia developing long-range attack drones in China
🎦 39:17-39:52⏩
- Citing a report by Reuters, The Economist's Shashank Joshi reports that Russia is developing long-range attack drones in China.
- Jonathan explains that a subsidiary of Almaz-Antey, the Russian state-owned defence conglomerate responsible for Russia's air defence systems, has developed a new drone with assistance from Chinese specialists.
- Jonathan believes that China's support for Russia must be addressed.
Russia - Russia updates nuclear doctrine
🎦 39:52-40:04⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions that he will be producing a video about Russia's updated nuclear doctrine and whether this should be a cause for concern.
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International - Russia circumventing sanctions
🎦 40:04-41:05⏩
- Former Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, Anna Palacio, reveals that Russia is still able to procure western technology, highlighting that analysis of Russian equipment captured in 2022 revealed that more than half contained components manufactured in the EU or the US.
South Korea - South Korea unveils new hydrogen-powered drone
🎦 41:05-41:13⏩
- Jonathan reports that a South Korean company has unveiled a hydrogen-powered drone with a range of 9,200km (5,717 miles) and a flight time of up to 14 hours.
- This follows a discussion he had in a previous video in which he suggested that drones could be used to deploy MANPADs (Man Portable Air Defence Systems) such as the Stinger behind enemy lines. He is impressed with the speed at which this technology has been developed.
France - 30 Leclerc tanks disappear from French Army inventory
🎦 41:16-43:49⏩
- 30 Leclerc main battle tanks (MBTs) have disappeared from a French military equipment inventory, leading to speculation that these may have been sent to Ukraine.
- France is currently training a Ukrainian battalion and equipping it with VAB Armoured Personnel Carriers, Caesar self-propelled howitzers, and AMX-10RC wheeled reconnaissance vehicles (sometimes referred to as light tanks).
- Jonathan believes that it is inconceivable that France would equip the battalion with just 128 VABs, 18 Caesar guns, and 24 AMX-10RCs.
- A similar incident occurred with two LRU multiple-launch rocket systems, which disappeared from an inventory and were subsequently spotted in Ukraine.
- Jonathan believes that the Leclerc MBTs are unlikely to have been sent for upgrading.
Wrap up
🎦 43:49-44:27⏩
Jonathan wraps up the video and looks forward to the Ramstein UDCG meeting in October, where he hopes to see further progress on military aid for Ukraine. He expresses concerns about the political situation in the US and the Republican party's stance on providing further support for Ukraine.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
No queries at present, although I reserve the right to submit these if necessary once I start work on the summaries.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a long and detailed transcript covering military aid. Jonathan also shares some quite interesting opinions on the nature of power and elon Musk!
TASK 1: Extract the date, part and title. Easy!
TASK 2: Split Transcript into topics by country/category. I will need to listen carefully to make sure I don't miss anything and I capture all of the nuances in Jonathan's delivery. It would be helpful to have a list of countries providing military aid to refer to as these are mentioned a lot.
TASK 3: Note the timestamps. Easy! Double check I've not missed any topics by making sure the timestamps are contiguous.
TASK 4: Summarise each topic based on the topic title and the timestamps. Straightforward! Include sufficient context but don't go off on a tangent. Jonathan's humour, insights and opinions are important.
TASK 5: Select a quote. Easy - he has a lot to say on the subject of Elon Musk in this one!
TASK 6: Are there any aspects of the task I did not understand or need clarifying? I can't think of anything right now, although I reserve the right to ask for clarification if required once I get started with the summaries.
