Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Kurk vs Pokrovsk - Military Chicken & "Strategy". Is It Worth It?
Table of Contents 📖
"But actually Kursk, you could argue, has strategic impact by point of fact that it is affecting Russia's geopolitical strategy and pulling forces from around the world to here."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video which will be an analysis of the situation in Kursk and Prokrovsk. The video will cover strategy, operational and tactical scales. The media often misuse military terminology (strategy/strategic).
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Military Chicken
🎦 00:20-07:57⏩
Jonathan shares his view that there is a "game of chicken" going on between Ukraine and Russia. He explains the Ukrainians had to wrest back initiative from Russia, who had been dictating the outcome of the war. He goes on to explain why attacking in Kursk, rather than along the frontlines within Ukraine, is the most sensible option. It would allow them to take more land, with fewer troop and materiel losses and would force the Russians to react. Attacking in Russia means that the destruction caused by Russia trying to regain lost territory is not in Ukraine. He uses Andrew Perpetua's maps to illustrate his point.
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Impact of the Kursk Offensive
🎦 07:57-11:57⏩
Attacking into Kursk was successful. Although the gains have slowed, the offensive has forced the Russians to react and divert troops from other parts of the front e.g. Kharkiv, Chasiv Yar, Zaporizhia and Kherson.
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Russia's gains in Prokrovsk
🎦 11:57-14:28⏩
Despite the impact of the Kursk offensive, Russia has not pulled troops away from Prokrovsk and have even been making gains, possibly due to opportunistic gains in areas such as Turetsk and New York. Jonathan illustrates the pace of the gains using Andrew Perpetua's maps and explains that the areas where Russia is making gains is far smaller than Kursk.
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Ukrainian Reserves - Are they being used effectively?
🎦 14:28-17:22⏩
Jonathan shares a pro-Russian comment that states Ukraine has 8-10 brigades in reserve and questions why these aren't being deployed to Prokrovsk. Is Ukraine luring Russia into a trap, or is this simply bad decision making? Are the reserves ready or even available? Jonathan explores these questions.
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Kursk Region Updates
🎦 17:22-19:47⏩
Ukrainian sources are reporting that a number of villages have been taken in Kursk, although Andrew Perpetua's maps are more conservative. Bridges, including Pontoon bridges, have been systematically destroyed by the Ukrainians using HIMARS, making it harder for the Russians to defend the area.
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Reasons for the Kursk Offensive - Analysis
🎦 19:47-22:46⏩
The Ukrainian Special Forces Unit "Extreme Tourism Company" has stated that the Kursk offensive was driven by a number of factors. One was that General Syrskyi wanted to demonstrate a victory to boost morale amongst the Ukrainian population. Redirecting forces to Prokrovsk would simply delay the inevitable. Russia's reaction to the Kursk Offensive is already underway, with troops being pulled from the Sahel region (Burkina Faso). Conscripts are being pulled from across Russia, impacting personnel levels across the whole country, not just the war effort.
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Prokrovsk - Russian Blogger Analysis
🎦 22:46-24:35⏩
Russian Military Blogger "Podolyaka" is critical of the Russian advance on Kurokovo, describing them as "daily stupid attacks" resulting in heavy equipment losses - 30 in the last two days, 14 out of 16 today. Is Ukraine doing enough to attrit the Russian equipment? Are the Ukrainians being sidetracked by having to defend Kursk?
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Prokrovsk Update - Fighting in Seladove
🎦 24:35-25:25⏩
There are reports that Russia has taken two villages in Prokrovsk but the advance has now halted. Attacks on Seladove have been repelled. 2000 National Guardsmen from the Karadag Offensive Brigade have been deployed to Prokrovsk.
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Vuhledar Under Attack
🎦 25:25-26:07⏩
Video footage shows that Vuhledar is being heavily bombarded. If Russia attack from the North, will the Ukrainians have to pull back?
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Prokrovsk - UK Intelligence Analysis
🎦 26:07-26:49⏩
UK Intelligence states that Prokrovsk is a key operational hub for Donetsk. If it is taken, this will have implications for Ukrainian supply lines.
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Prokrovsk vs Kursk - Is The Offensive Worth It?
🎦 26:49-43:48⏩
Jonathan plays and analyses an interview with Dom Nicholls (Telegraph) and Roland Oliphant (Telegraph), both of whom are in Ukraine and have been talking to soldiers, volunteers and civilians.
- It seems likely that the Russians did not "take the bait" in Kursk.
- Russia has pulled troops from other parts of the frontline, but has doubled down on Prokrovsk and is exploiting the weakened frontline.
- Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers are struggling. There's a sense of impending Russian advance, with evacuations taking place.
- Ukrainians are outnumbered (5:1) and outgunned. They don't have enough infantry, artillery, shells or drones. Russia has deployed a lot of Electronic Warfare equipment making it hard to use drones effectively.
- The Ukrainians appear to have stopped defending some towns and have started retreating from the area.
- They have pulled out of Novohrodivka, a town on the railway line towards Prokrovsk. The town is believed to be under Russian control.
- There are reports that Russia has moved into areas such as Memrik on the Southern side of the salient and that Ukrainians have pulled out of Kalynivka.
- Ukrainians are expecting a rapid advance. The Centre for Defence Strategies expects that Russia will be at Prokrovsk by mid-September, but won't capture it - this will mark the peak of their advances this year.
- Some Pro-Russian commentators are suspicious of the ease with which they are gaining territory and believe that they may be being lured into a trap.
- Ukrainian soldiers are criticising the Ukrainian leadership and are angry that they are not understanding the realities on the ground.
- There is concern about the speed of the Russian advance.
- There are criticisms over the lack of fortifications behind Avdiivka.
- Ukrainian journalist, Stanislav Aseyev, who is now a soldier, is critical of the lack of understanding by the high command of the problems faced by soldiers on the ground.
- Ukrainian MP Maryana Bezuhla has been critical of General Syrskyi and is concerned about the lack of Ukrainian troops in Novohrodivka.
- Zelensky was asked about the situation in Prokrovsk, and his response was that the Russian advance is slower than it was before Kursk, but analysis by Def Mon shows that the pace has actually doubled.
- Jonathan also notes that Zelensky looked tired and worn in the interview.
General Hamish de Bretton-Gordon Analysis
🎦 43:48-49:25⏩
General Hamish de Bretton-Gordon shares his analysis of the situation in Prokrovsk.
- Both the Ukrainian and Russian high commands can only operate at the operational level, rather than strategical.
- The Russian command structure is clunky, which is why there has been no counter-attack into Kursk.
- The Russian advance on Prokrovsk is more likely to have been an opportunity they decided to exploit because of the weakened front line, rather than a coordinated counter-attack to draw troops away from Kursk.
- The advance on Prokrovsk is an infantry slog, in contrast to the maneuver warfare being displayed in Kursk.
- It is worth observing if Ukraine will now try to extend the Kursk salient in response to the advance on Prokrovsk.
Philip O'Brien - Misuse of "Strategic" in War Reporting
🎦 49:25-59:11⏩
Jonathan shares analysis by Military Historian Philip O'Brien, who is critical of the media's use of the word "strategic" when discussing locations in the war. Most of these are towns of little strategic significance. Examples include Bakhmut, Avdiivka, New York, Turetsk, Chasiv Yar and Prokrovsk. He shares examples of articles from Reuters, the New York Times, the Washington Post and NPR using the word inappropriately. The capture of these locations has had little impact on the ability of Ukraine to prosecute the war. Philip O'Brien believes that the Kursk offensive IS of strategic significance, as it is impacting Russia's geopolitical strategy. Russia has been forced to pull troops from other areas of the world (the Sahel). It is impacting troop levels across Russia, is damaging Russian morale and is affecting information control. Despite this, war reporting is skewed towards doom and gloom in Prokrovsk and the success of the Kursk offensive is being downplayed. Jonathan agrees with O'Brien's assessment - attacking into Kursk was the right decision, as it is forcing Russia to react.
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Ukraine Wresting Back the Initiative
🎦 59:11-1:00⏩
:33
When the attacks on Kursk and the large scale drone attacks on Russian infrastructure are considered together, it is clear that Ukraine is attempting to wrest back the initiative and is succeeding. They are forcing Russia to react both militarily and by pulling back air defenses from occupied territories within Ukraine to defend their own infrastructure.
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Conclusion
🎦 1:00:33-1:01⏩
:11⏩
Jonathan concludes that the Kursk offensive was the right decision and that it is still reaping more benefits than it is causing costs in Prokrovsk. He invites viewers to share their thoughts in the comments.
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Wrap up
🎦 1:01:11-1:01⏩
:11⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, acknowledges that it was a long video but explains that it was important.
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