Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"And you have the audacity, the absolute audacity, to come on my threads as pro-Kremlin trolls and spout off about Zelensky and Ukraine, as if the freedom there is worse than Russia, as if the corruption there is worse than Russia. Russia is further down the Transparency International Index of Corruption, right? So Russia is more corrupt. It's far less free, far less free."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:23⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG update. He apologises for the slightly later video release, attributing it to time spent watching a live stream with Andrew Perpetua (at double speed!).
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
16/01/2024 Russian Losses
🎦 00:23-03:35⏩
Jonathan starts with the Ukrainian General Staff's report on estimated Russian losses from the previous day, 16/01/2024. He highlights a significant uptick in losses, particularly in tanks and armoured personnel vehicles (APVs), potentially indicating major Russian assaults, possibly around Avdiivka where large Russian columns have been observed. Jonathan explains how analysing the types of equipment lost, and factoring in their potential troop capacity, helps assess the accuracy of these figures. For example, a destroyed column of 10 APVs, each potentially carrying 10-20 soldiers, could equate to 100-200 casualties, plus the loss of vehicles. He provides a breakdown of the figures:
- 730 personnel (a decrease from the previous day, but still high).
- 13 tanks (above the average of 9).
- 14 APVs (slightly below the average of 16).
- 10 artillery systems (below the average of 13).
- 3 multiple launch rocket systems (above average).
- 24 vehicles and fuel tanks (above the average of 17).
- 2 pieces of special equipment (not considered a major loss).
Jonathan notes that while there have been days with higher losses, the Ukrainians are maintaining a steady rate of attrition, which poses a significant problem for Russia in the long term.
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Andrew Perpetua's 16/01/2024 visually confirmed Losses (Russia and Ukraine)
🎦 03:35-06:47⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Andriy Perpetua's visually confirmed loss statistics. He points out that Perpetua's data continues to indicate a favourable ratio for Ukraine, with Russian losses estimated at 2-2.5 times higher than Ukrainian losses. Jonathan mentions that Perpetua and his team are facing a massive task, with 301 video clips to analyse on this day alone. The sheer volume of footage means they are unable to review everything, suggesting the true extent of losses could be even higher than currently documented. Ukrainian Losses (specifics from Andriy Perpetua)
- A Strela-10 short-range air defence system (one of several lost in recent weeks). Jonathan notes that losing these older systems is preferable to losing more advanced systems like the BUK or S-300.
- 3 boats (a mix of damaged and sunk).
- Tanks (unspecified number).
- A Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV).
- A BMP IFV.
- Various other vehicles including pickups, SUVs, trucks and civilian vehicles.
Jonathan emphasizes that the majority of equipment losses, both Russian and Ukrainian, are increasingly attributed to drone warfare, specifically FPV (First-Person View) drones. He points out the presence of a Krasnopol guided munition, Russia's equivalent to the Excalibur, and mentions the use of Lancet loitering munitions.
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Recent Ukrainian Losses (footage compilation)
🎦 08:06-10:27⏩
Jonathan presents a compilation of recent Ukrainian losses, acknowledging that the conflict takes a toll on both sides. The footage, primarily from Russian sources, includes:
- Ukrainian Tornado-S rocket launchers, which are comparable in range and capability to HIMARS, being targeted.
- Lancet strikes on various Ukrainian assets, including trucks, self-propelled guns (SPGs), and even a Bradley IFV.
- Destruction of a Strela-10 air defence system by a Krasnopol laser-guided projectile.
- A Ka-52 attack helicopter engaging a Ukrainian vehicle.
Jonathan reiterates that while Ukraine suffers losses, he believes the overall impact on Russian forces is significantly higher due to their larger deployments and frontline presence.
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Bradley IFV Destroys Russian BMP (footage)
🎦 10:27-11:11⏩
Jonathan highlights a video showing a Ukrainian soldier filming a Russian BMP infantry fighting vehicle. A US-supplied Bradley IFV appears and swiftly engages the BMP at close range, obliterating it. Jonathan encourages viewers to watch the footage, describing it as "staggering." He also shares a comment from "More Translated" providing context: the incident occurred near Stepove, where Ukrainian infantry, potentially including Chechen fighters, were defending a position. A Russian BMP attempted a breakthrough, and an unmanned Bradley arrived to counter the threat, effectively eliminating the Russian vehicle. This event is attributed to the 109th Separate Territorial Defence Brigade.
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Railway attacks in Russia
🎦 11:29-12:51⏩
Jonathan covers a series of attacks on Russian railway infrastructure, specifically targeting relay cabinets in at least three locations: Saratov, Yaroslavl, and the Yershynk district of the Nizhny Novgorod region. While initially perceived as minor disruptions, reports suggest these attacks successfully halted traffic on those railway sections, impacting Russian logistics. Jonathan believes such acts, likely carried out by pro-Ukrainian partisans, represent low-risk, high-reward operations. He highlights the simplicity of such attacks, suggesting the perpetrators could easily set fire to relay boxes and escape with minimal risk of apprehension.
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Fire at Chemical plant in Southern Russia
🎦 13:07-14:20⏩
Jonathan reports on explosions and a significant fire at the Kamensky Combine, a large chemical plant in the Rostov region of southern Russia. The facility, a state-owned enterprise located in the city of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, was reportedly evacuated, and while the cause remains unconfirmed, there is speculation about Ukrainian involvement.
- Jonathan mentions claims suggesting the plant was targeted by Ukrainian missiles or drones but expresses uncertainty due to conflicting reports indicating an internal explosion as the trigger.
- He emphasizes the significance of the incident regardless of the cause, describing it as a "major incident." He also notes that the plant, opened in June 2023, was relatively new.
Drone and Missile strikes (Overnight 16/01/2024 - 17/01/2024
🎦 14:20-20:16⏩
Jonathan analyses the recent lull between large-scale drone and missile attacks, referencing observations made by Andrew Perpetua during a live stream. He reiterates his belief that Ukraine is deploying these weapons at a rate commensurate with their production and procurement capabilities, suggesting the gaps between attacks are logistical necessities. He highlights a user comment supporting this view, stating: "That is my mantra for what is going on here." Jonathan cites Andrew Perpetua's assessment that Ukraine can produce or procure approximately 300-360 drones monthly, a figure corroborated by multiple sources and evident from the observed frequency of Shahed drone usage.
- Jonathan then details a recent attack involving around 20 drones, with 19 successfully neutralized by Ukrainian air defences.
- He commends Ukraine's air defence performance while acknowledging the potential for damage even from intercepted drones crashing to the ground.
Jonathan discusses the strategic targeting of hotels in Kharkiv, Dnipro and other cities by the Russians. He speculates that this might be part of a deliberate strategy to discourage journalists from staying in those locations, limiting their access to the front lines and reducing international media coverage of the war. He posits that these attacks aim to create an environment where the war fades from public consciousness without provoking a significant international backlash. Jonathan provides a summary of the strikes
- Kharkiv: The city centre was struck by what were initially reported as two, but later confirmed as three, S-300 missiles. The mayor of Kharkiv reported significant damage, with "several" residential buildings affected.
- Odessa: Explosions were heard in the city, with subsequent reports indicating damage to an apartment building. Although most drones were intercepted, the impact of the downing of the drones caused damage to the apartment block.
- Berdyansk: Explosions were also reported in this occupied city, highlighting Ukraine's ongoing targeting of Russian positions in occupied territories.
Heating and Power Outages Continue in Russia
🎦 20:16-20:47⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to ongoing infrastructure issues within Russia. He reports on the latest heating-related incident, this time in Nizhny Novgorod, where a hot water main burst, injuring 12 people with scalding water. The incident has also left an additional 3,000 Russians without heating.
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Protests Erupt in Russia Over Environmental Activist's Arrest
🎦 20:47-23:54⏩
Jonathan highlights protests in the Russian city of Bimac, sparked by the four-year prison sentence given to activist, Vyacheslav Alsinov, on charges of "inciting hatred or enmity." Footage shows a sizable demonstration against a backdrop of what appears to be mobile phone signal jamming, suggesting authorities are attempting to suppress communication and coverage of the event. Jonathan expresses his disgust at the situation, condemning the Russian government for its authoritarian tactics. He points out the irony of pro-Kremlin trolls criticizing Ukraine's freedom and corruption while similar, if not worse, issues are occurring within Russia itself. He challenges the trolls, asserting they are either paid propagandists or morally bankrupt individuals who fail to recognize the realities of the situation. He emphasizes that Russia ranks lower than Ukraine on Transparency International's Corruption Index, indicating a greater degree of corruption, not less, as the trolls claim. Jonathan concludes this segment with a simple but powerful statement: "Sort it out." Jonathan reveals the activist's true 'crime' was protesting against gold mining operations that are damaging the environment in Bashkortostan.
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Putin's Daughter's Lucrative Business Dealings
🎦 23:54-28:27⏩
Jonathan delves into the issue of kleptocracy within Russia, focusing on a report by Anton Gerashchenko about Putin's eldest daughter, Maria Vorontsova. Gerashchenko reveals that Vorontsova, despite her background in medical sciences, has allegedly amassed significant wealth through her involvement with a medical company called Nomeco.
- Over three years, she reportedly received 944 million rubles (approximately $10.73 million) in dividends and wages.
- Navalny's associates, who investigated the matter, discovered that Nomeco's primary source of income stemmed from its dealings with the Sogaz clinic.
- Sogaz, allegedly co-owned by a close friend of Putin, reportedly serves the Russian elite, including high-ranking officials, security service members, and even Putin himself.
Jonathan expresses his outrage at the blatant corruption, contrasting the immense wealth accumulated by Putin and his family with the struggles of everyday Russians. He highlights the hypocrisy of a system where the leader, who transitioned from a career in the state security apparatus to political positions, becomes the world's wealthiest person while his citizens face economic hardship. Jonathan asserts that this wealth disparity is a direct result of Putin siphoning off state funds for personal gain.
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Russian Troops Stranded on Dnipro River Islands Due to Freezing
🎦 28:27-28:49⏩
Jonathan ends with a report from Russian reporter Vladislav Ugolny who states that Russian soldiers stationed on islands within the Dnipro River delta are facing difficulties due to the river freezing over. The icy conditions are hindering their ability to utilize boats for transportation, effectively stranding them. Jonathan notes he had mentioned this issue a couple of days earlier in his frontline update, and speculates that this situation could make the stranded Russian troops more vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.
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Wrap up
🎦 28:49-end
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video, expresses his gratitude for their ongoing support.
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