Ukraine War Update NEWS: Hits and Losses
🤖
This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"The fight for truth is on"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:25⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics and mentions that this is the first part of his Ukraine War Update, focusing on hits and losses, for the 31st of October 2024.
- He had to re-record the video as his laptop ran out of space - a whole hour wasted!
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff Update: Record daily Russian losses
🎦 00:25-01:59⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day, noting exceptionally high figures.
- Personnel losses exceed 1,300, continuing the trend of high losses observed throughout October.
- October is on track to be the highest casualty month since the conflict began, exceeding 40,000.
- 121 Russian vehicles and fuel tanks were destroyed - a record high.
Russian Vehicle and Equipment Losses: Evidence suggests shift in Russian tactics
🎦 01:59-03:12⏩
Jonathan analyses the types of Russian vehicles lost, drawing attention to:
- 19 tanks and 17 armoured personnel carriers (APCs) destroyed. He speculates on the reason for high tank losses, suggesting their use as APCs due to a potential shortage of dedicated APCs.
- 58 artillery systems destroyed - a significant loss.
Russian Artillery: Is Russia running out of Artillery?
🎦 03:12-04:19⏩, 09:05-14:23⏩
- A Twitter user suggests that Russia is experiencing difficulties in maintaining its artillery supplies.
- Analysis indicates a slowdown in Russia's deployment of artillery from its stockpiles.
- Jonathan highlights a claim from the pro-war, but critical of the conduct of the war, Russian Telegram channel 'Philologist in Ambush'. They note an abundance of artillerymen, suggesting significant equipment losses, as crews are typically smaller and less vulnerable, particularly during nighttime strikes by Ukrainian drones.
- This ties in with observations of increasingly outdated artillery systems, like the M46, D74, D20, and D30 howitzers, appearing in visually confirmed loss data.
- He reasons that Russia would deploy its most advanced artillery if it were available. The reliance on outdated systems strongly indicates a depletion of modern artillery.
- The Telegram channel describes how, after the loss of their artillery piece by a drone strike, the crew were issued with AK-47s and ordered to assault.
- This aligns with reports from other sources that mobilised personnel from the Luhansk and Donetsk regions are being treated poorly, denied leave, and used as cannon fodder in 'meat storms', highlighting a disregard for their well-being.
Ukrainian Losses
🎦 04:20-05:21⏩
Jonathan reviews Ukrainian losses using Andrew Perpetua's data.
- He observes a lower volume of losses compared to Russia, including two boats, two howitzers, and four Soviet-era infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).
- Notably, no Western-supplied equipment is included in the losses.
Visually Confirmed Losses
🎦 05:21-06:14⏩
Jonathan provides an overview of visually confirmed losses using Andrew Perpetua's data:
- Russia has lost a Groza-04N electronic warfare system, several engineering vehicles, various artillery pieces (including D20s and D30s), tanks (T-80s and T-72s), mine rollers, infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-2s, BMP-3s, and BTR-82s), APCs, trucks, and civilian vehicles.
North Korean Troop Deployment in Ukraine
🎦 06:14-08:12⏩
- Unconfirmed reports suggest that seven North Korean soldiers have been killed by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region with one surrendering.
- Contradictory information indicates that North Korean troops are already operating in Russian-occupied Donetsk.
- Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Combatting Disinformation, suggests that North Korean troops might have been present in Luhansk or Donetsk, potentially assisting with rocket launch sites or receiving training from Russian forces.
- Additional claims suggest that North Korean engineer troops are already in Donetsk, although their involvement in combat is unconfirmed.
- Ukraine's permanent representative to the UN states that North Korea has sent at least three generals, 500 officers, and around 12,000 soldiers to Russia.
- The representative further alleges that these soldiers are undergoing training at five Russian military bases and that their deployment violates international law and the UN Charter. The number of North Korean troops in Russia is expected to reach 4,500 in the coming weeks, with potential combat involvement planned for November.
- However, claims of North Korean casualties in Kursk during October persist. Jonathan advises caution and a critical approach to these reports.
Russian APC destroyed by Ukrainian Tank: A lucky escape
🎦 14:23-15:20⏩
Jonathan revisits footage he has previously shown, three times, of a Russian APC approaching a Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region, mistaking it for an allied vehicle.
- The Ukrainian tank subsequently destroys the APC.
- A 19-year old crew member of the APC survived and is being treated by the Ukrainians.
Russian Soldier sent back to front line despite injuries
🎦 15:20-16:33⏩
- A 28 year-old Russian soldier who signed his contract on July 11th, 2024, was deployed near Turetsk on August 13th. He sustained injuries and underwent surgery on August 19th.
- Despite this, he was sent back to the front line on August 31st with no follow-up care.
- On September 1st, he was severely injured again.
- Due to a disagreement with his commanders, he was subjected to inhumane treatment and imprisoned in a basement or pit.
- He was only released after his wife contacted the prosecutor’s office.
- However, despite the severity of his injuries, he was forced back to the front line on October 29th.
- Jonathan highlights this case as an example of how Russia disregards the wellbeing of its soldiers.
Economist Report: Battlefield Assessment
🎦 16:33-17:46⏩
- Jonathan discusses a recent report from Shashank Joshi at The Economist, which expresses concerns about Ukraine's battlefield position.
- While Russia makes territorial gains, it comes at the cost of heavy casualties and equipment losses.
- He believes that Russia can currently sustain these losses but acknowledges the role of North Korean military support in this.
- Without North Korea's involvement, Russia's ability to continue the war would be severely diminished.
Sanctions against Russia
🎦 17:46-18:21⏩
- Jonathan argues that the sanctions imposed on Russia are having a significant impact on its economy.
- He highlights Russia's recent interest rate hike to 21% as an indicator of the sanctions' effectiveness.
- He criticises individuals, such as Robert Fico (former Slovakian Prime Minister), who claim that the sanctions are ineffective.
Ukraine Recruitment Drive
🎦 18:21-18:31⏩
Jonathan notes that Ukraine is looking to recruit an additional 160,000 personnel to address its manpower challenges.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Su-24M Downed
🎦 18:31-18:50⏩
- Evidence confirms that a Ukrainian Su-24M was shot down near Snake Island in 2022.
- The crew ejected and survived.
Ukrainian MRAP survives multiple mine strikes
🎦 18:50-19:45⏩
- Incredible footage shows a Ukrainian MRAP surviving three consecutive mine strikes while travelling at high speed.
- Jonathan speculates that its speed may have caused some of the mines to detonate behind the vehicle.
- Despite the impact, the MRAP continues to function.
Russian S-300 or S-400 System Damaged or Destroyed in Crimea
🎦 19:45-20:56⏩
- Satellite imagery confirms that an S-300 or S-400 air defence system was either damaged or destroyed in Razyanivka, Crimea between 27th-28th of October.
- While explosions were reported in Crimea, the details of specific incidents are often not immediately available.
- Jonathan highlights that the discovery of the strike through satellite imagery several days after the fact suggests that Ukraine is successfully targeting Russian assets deep inside Crimea.
Fires in Moscow
🎦 20:56-21:55⏩
Jonathan reports on several fires in Moscow:
- A fire broke out at the Elektrozoite plant, potentially linked to the war effort.
- A fire damaged the Ushakov Academy of Water Sports.
- Most notably, a research institute involved in weaponry and missile development suffered significant damage. While the exact cause is unclear, Jonathan speculates sabotage or a possible drone attack.
Drone Attacks and Missile Strikes
🎦 21:55-23:25⏩
- Russia launched a wave of 43 drones at Ukraine. Ukrainian forces successfully neutralised all 43 drones with 23 jammed by electronic warfare and 17 intercepted.
- Russia also launched a concentrated attack on the Odessa region, firing ballistic missiles and possibly aerial bombs. Two ballistic missiles were shot down but two hit their targets. Three others struck the Donetsk region.
- Jonathan notes some confusion in the reporting regarding the use of the word "bomb" instead of "missile".
Russian Missile Strike on Odessa: Civilian Casualties Reported
🎦 23:25-25:09⏩
- The governor of Odessa reports that Russia launched a massive missile strike on the city with around 10 missiles fired in 25 minutes.
- Jonathan expresses his outrage at a Russian missile strike that hit a residential building in Kharkiv, killing two people, including an 11-year-old child. He condemns the attack as a war crime.
- Reports indicate 34 injured, an 11 year old and 15 year old confirmed dead.
Ukraine Targets Berdyansk Port
🎦 25:09-26:02⏩
- Ukraine has targeted the Russian-occupied port city of Berdyansk on the Azov Sea.
- Seven Ukrainian attack drones were involved in the attack, with at least three shot down.
- The Russian-installed governor shared footage of one of the drones (potentially illegal), confirming the use of larger, airplane-type drones.
- While Russian sources claim minimal damage, smoke was seen rising from the port area which had been sealed off.
Czech Mi-24V Helicopter: Highly decorated
🎦 26:02-26:47⏩
- Jonathan highlights a former Czech Mi-24V (previously misidentified as an Mi-35) attack helicopter now operated by Ukraine, painted in an eye-catching 'H.R. Giger Alien' design.
- The helicopter is reported to have downed nine drones, including six Shahed-136s, evident from the kill markings on its fuselage.
- He expresses admiration for its unique and intimidating aesthetic.
Poland Seeks US Permission to Shoot Down Russian Missiles over Ukraine
🎦 26:47-27:39⏩
- Poland has formally requested permission from the United States to shoot down Russian missiles traversing Ukrainian airspace.
- The US Helsinki Commission, a bipartisan group of US politicians, supports the request.
- There are also unconfirmed reports that Romania has been granted permission to intercept Russian threats in its airspace.
- Jonathan welcomes these developments.
Rumours of a new Russian Offensive in Zaporizhzhia
🎦 27:39-28:02⏩
- Unconfirmed reports from Ukrainian intelligence suggest that Russia is preparing a new offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region.
- Russia has been conducting training exercises with armoured vehicles in the area.
EU Urges Ukraine to Restore Media Pluralism
🎦 28:02-29:22⏩
- The European Commission has criticised Ukraine's wartime media restrictions, urging the government to reinstate media pluralism.
- The criticism centres around 'Telethon', a state-run media platform created during the war, combining coverage from Ukraine's largest television channels.
- While initially deemed a necessary response to Russian aggression, concerns have arisen regarding media monopolisation and suppression of dissenting voices.
- Jonathan acknowledges the complexities, recognising the balance between wartime security concerns and the principles of a free press.
US Congressman Suggests NATO Intervention if North Korean Troops Engage in Ukraine
🎦 29:22-30:05⏩
- US Congressman Mike Turner, the House Intelligence Committee chairman, stated that direct military intervention by the US and NATO should be considered if North Korean troops engage in combat in Ukraine.
- Jonathan infers this would likely involve missile strikes, signalling a significant escalation in the conflict.
South Korea Confirms North Korean Military Presence in Russia
🎦 30:05-31:21⏩
- A South Korean government official revealed intelligence confirming the presence of North Korean military personnel in Russia.
- Approximately 11,000 North Korean troops are reportedly in Russia, 3,000 of whom are stationed in the western part of the country for training.
- There are reports of some North Korean troops being deployed to the Kursk region and Donbas.
- The official states that they are unable to confirm if North Korean troops have been involved in combat.
- The BBC notes that South Korea has indirectly supplied weapons to Ukraine via the United States, although this hasn't been officially confirmed.
- South Korea's Defence Minister, Lee Jong-sup, has announced plans to send observers to analyse the situation in Ukraine.
- He underscores the importance of this deployment, stating that neglecting to do so would be a dereliction of duty.
BBC Launches Campaign to Combat Disinformation
🎦 31:21-34:06⏩
- Jonathan praises the BBC for its global reputation as a well-respected and impartial news organisation.
- He commends the BBC's commitment to fighting disinformation, highlighting a recent campaign video promoting their fact-checking service 'BBC Verify'.
- He considers their efforts to counter disinformation crucial and commends their dedication to truth-seeking.
Halloween Pumpkin Update
🎦 34:06-34:59⏩
- Jonathan showcases his Halloween pumpkin carving of a scary face, complete with sharp teeth, a Ukrainian trident (Tryzub). He acknowledges that it isn't his best work, as he found carving the teeth challenging due to numbness in his fingers (a symptom of his multiple sclerosis).
Wrap up
🎦 34:59-35:06⏩
- Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support and signs off.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
What were the 'South Pole Riots'? (32:20)
Who is Colby Badwar?(29:37)
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a long transcript! First, I need to break down the tasks to summarise this video.
TASK 1 - Extract the Title, Date and Part:
The title is the Youtube Video Title without the date (which is in brackets) or part.
The date needs to be extracted from the title and formatted to DD/MM/YYYY.
The Part is the letter after the date in brackets (if present).
TASK 2 - Topic Titles:
I need to create a topic title for each topic discussed making sure it is granular/quantified/specific.
Topic 1 should always be "Hello Team".
The last topic should always be "Wrap up".
TASK 3 - Topic Timeframes
I need to record the start and end timestamp for each topic.
I can use this task to check for any missing topics/if the topics flow and make sense.
TASK 4 - Topic Summaries
Summarise the key points for each topic using the timestamps.
Include any insights/analysis/credits Jonathan provides.
TASK 5 - Quote
Select a quote from Jonathan, ensuring that it is concise and would make sense if read in isolation.
TASK 6 - Queries
Detail any aspects of the transcript I did not understand
