Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Witkoff, NOOOOOO!!1!
Table of Contents 📖
"This is as bad as it gets, guys. This is as bad as it gets."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:21⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another Ukraine War Update. Today he is wearing a Canadian top for two reasons - solidarity with Canada and because he'll be interviewing Malcolm Nance in a few hours.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Russian Losses
🎦 00:21-01:44⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures on Russian losses from the previous day, highlighting the staggering numbers in several categories:
- Personnel: 1,210 (high).
- Tanks: 9 (daily average).
- Troop Carrying Vehicles: 20 (daily average).
- Artillery Systems: 96 (stupendous, especially considering yesterday's 101).
- MLRS: 3.
- Vehicles & Fuel Tanks: 166 (phenomenal).
- Drones: 258 (a significant increase in both real terms and those getting through Ukrainian defences, presenting a challenge).
Putin's Kursk Strategy: Securing a May 9th Victory Display?
🎦 01:44-02:08⏩
Jonathan cites a Euromodern Press report (quoting RBC) suggesting that Putin intends to present a victory in Kursk at the May 9th parade. This, despite Ukraine retaining control of around 100 square kilometers after strategically withdrawing from a month of intense clashes.
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Kursk Offensive: A Deeper Dive with TatarGami
🎦 02:08-10:46⏩
Jonathan analyses the recent fighting in and around Kursk using a condensed report on the Kursk offensive from Front Intelligence Insight (TatarGami) - the full version is available on their website. With the Ukrainian withdrawal from the key town of Sudiia, the offensive is nearing its conclusion. TatarGami's report dissects the Kursk operation through three questions:
- Geopolitical Objectives:
- The report argues that Russia benefited from the Kursk operation, as it diverted Ukrainian resources. Jonathan challenges this view, arguing that Ukrainian forces successfully drew a significant number of Russian troops into the area, thus relieving pressure elsewhere.
- Attrition Rate:
- Examining data from OSINT analyst Nelsio (tracking losses), TatarGami finds that Russia sustained higher equipment losses (712 pieces, primarily armoured fighting vehicles), while Ukraine lost 632 pieces. TatarGami views this near one-to-one loss ratio unfavourably for Ukraine.
- Jonathan points out that Ukraine's attacking posture in Kursk would naturally result in higher equipment losses. He argues that focusing on personnel attrition is more relevant in this context, and that Ukraine likely had a more favourable outcome in that regard.
- Battlefield Success:
- TatarGami acknowledges the initial success of the Ukrainian operation (capturing territory, prisoners, gathering intelligence), but criticises the subsequent counteroffensives as being counterproductive given the mounting losses.
- Jonathan questions the assessment, highlighting the morale boost for Ukraine and the political implications (discussed in the full report).
- Overall, TatarGami believes the operation yielded partial success for Ukraine, potentially accelerating Russian gains in Donbas, and presented an unfavourable attrition ratio. Jonathan expresses reservations about the analysis, particularly regarding the attrition rate and the underestimation of the operation's impact on Russian troop deployment. He believes that the Kursk offensive was a success for Ukraine.
FPV Drone Warfare: Evidence from the Front Lines
🎦 10:46-11:21⏩
Jonathan revisits a photo shared yesterday appearing to show a Ukrainian vehicle immobilised by fiber-optic cables, likely from FPV drones. He notes the increasing presence of these cables, which aligns with reports of widespread FPV drone use in the Donetsk direction.
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Ukrainian Air Force Urges Civilians: Don't Film F-16s
🎦 11:21-13:51⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian Air Force's plea to civilians to refrain from filming F-16 jets. This follows footage of a low-flying F-16 that surfaced online. Concerns arose about potential intelligence leaks to Russian forces. Jonathan cites a report from JMT Politico 80 debunking claims of an F-16 being shot down in the Sumy region. While an S-400 did fire on an F-16, the pilot evaded the missile. Jonathan speculates that the low-flying F-16 footage might be from this encounter, as the pilot likely performed a defensive manoeuvre, diving towards the ground to evade the missile. JMT Politico 80 notes that Ukrainian F-16 pilots are increasingly engaging in air-to-air and air-to-ground missions (clearing the skies, hitting the front line), and have successfully evaded multiple Russian attempts to intercept them with Su-33s and Su-35s.
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Russian Fires: Plastic Plant Ablaze in Mariel
🎦 13:51-14:15⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a large fire in Mariel, where a plastic plant in Przhevolski is burning. The fire spans over 2,000 square metres and appears highly destructive.
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Alleged Car Bombing in Occupied Skadovsk
🎦 14:15-14:39⏩
Two Russian officers have reportedly been killed in a car bombing in occupied Skadovsk, a town on the Kherson coast located between the Dnipro River and Crimea. Ukrainian military intelligence reported the incident, which occurred on March 20th, 2025.
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UN Report: Ukrainian Youth Coerced into Sabotage for Russia
🎦 14:39-15:26⏩
Jonathan highlights a disturbing UN report revealing the coercion of Ukrainian youth into acts of sabotage for Russia. The report states that at least 11 minors (aged 13-17) have been apprehended for sabotage activities, including arson. Additionally, it mentions over 200 minors being forcibly taken to Russia during the war's first year. This news follows a recent incident involving a 14-year-old girl who was allegedly coerced into a potential suicide bombing through blackmail, possibly involving nude photos, by Russian hackers or intelligence operatives.
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Overnight Drone Attacks: Zaporizhzhia Hit, Family Killed
🎦 15:26-17:12⏩
Jonathan reports on another massive wave of Russian drone attacks (179), with 163 neutralized by conventional means and electronic warfare. The remaining 16 drones reached their targets, marking an increase in the percentage bypassing Ukrainian defenses. Zaporizhzhia was hit, with significant explosions and casualties. The Russians, as usual, targeted residential areas. Tragically, a family was devastated in the attack:
- A father and his 14-year-old daughter died at the scene.
- The mother succumbed to her injuries after 10 hours of medical efforts.
- Their nine-month-old baby remains in serious condition.
- Four other adults are hospitalised.
- A daycare suffered significant damage.
Jonathan expresses sorrow for this recurring horror, emphasizing the ongoing suffering caused by these nightly attacks.
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Aftermath of Ukrainian Strike: Engels Air Base in Ruins
🎦 17:12-21:26⏩
Jonathan reports on the aftermath of the Ukrainian strike on Engels Air Base, potentially targeting recently delivered Kh-101 missiles. Satellite images (from Maxar) presented by WarTranslated reveal significant damage: destroyed bunkers, ruined buildings, and a heavily damaged ammo depot. Jonathan shows analysis from Brady Afrik and Turchy, highlighting the strategic importance of this strike. The analysis suggests that:
- The base, located over 600 kilometres from Ukrainian-controlled territory, housed 295 and 260 strategic bombers used for launching attacks on Ukraine.
- A loading facility for Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) was destroyed, along with an unspecified number of the missiles themselves.
- This is particularly significant because it disrupts Russia's ability to launch attacks against Ukraine, as seen with the delay in transferring loading facilities after they relocated their Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.
- The destroyed containers were likely GK-120s, specifically designed for transporting Kh-101 missiles.
- A cylindrical building, potentially used for ALCM preparation (fuses, warheads, etc.), sustained heavy damage.
- Geolocated footage points to secondary detonations and damage to openly stored ammunition.
Jonathan expresses awe at the level of destruction and the insights provided by the analysis.
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Kavkazkaya Oil Pumping Station Still Burning
🎦 21:26-22:09⏩
The Kavkazkaya oil pumping station, previously struck by Ukrainian forces, is still ablaze, demonstrating the effectiveness of the attack and undoubtedly causing considerable anxiety for Russia.
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Peace Talks & Kidnapped Children: A Shocking Omission?
🎦 22:09-22:54⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the lack of progress on the return of kidnapped Ukrainian children during peace negotiations. He reads a tweet from Don Winslow criticising Donald Trump and Marco Rubio (Secretary of State) for not prioritising the safe return of these children in any potential peace deal. Jonathan finds this appalling, especially as Zelensky himself has highlighted how Russia uses the abduction of children to coerce power plant workers.
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Trump's Appalling Stance: No Sanctions, Land Division & Witkoff's Russian Talking Points
🎦 22:54-36:14⏩
Jonathan expresses outrage at recent events related to the US's stance on the war and peace negotiations.
- Trump's Statements:
- In a recent interview, Trump showed no intention of imposing sanctions on Russia, despite the ongoing attacks on Ukraine.
- Trump suggested that the US should pressure Ukraine into accepting a peace deal by threatening to cut aid and intelligence, which Jonathan deems a terrible idea leaving Ukraine extremely vulnerable.
- When asked about dividing up land, Trump confirms that negotiations are underway and nearing a ceasefire and contract.
- Jonathan sees this as a clear indication that Trump is not fighting for Ukraine, but for a swift end to the war that favours Russia.
- Steve Witkoff's Shocking Interview:
- Steve Witkoff, the US envoy to Russia, appeared on Tucker Carlson's show (to Jonathan's dismay), advocating for elections in Ukraine as a must for a peace plan, echoing a known Russian demand.
- Witkoff claims Zelensky agrees with him, despite Kyiv stating elections are impossible during wartime.
- Jonathan criticizes Witkoff for repeating Russian talking points.
- Criticism of Witkoff:
- Anne Applebaum criticises Witkoff's "jaw-dropping ignorance" regarding the violence used by Russia to suppress Ukrainians in occupied areas.
- Yaroslav Trofimov points out that Witkoff doesn't even know the names of the regions Russia aims to keep, highlighting his staggering level of ignorance.
- When pressed on the names of the regions, Witkoff struggles and Tucker Carlson corrects him with the Russian transliteration, further demonstrating Witkoff's lack of knowledge.
- Jonathan's Outrage:
- Jonathan is disgusted by Witkoff's repetition of the Russian talking point that Russian-speaking regions should belong to Russia, despite the widely condemned referendums held at gunpoint.
- He expresses anger towards those who support Trump, calling out their naiveté and highlighting the danger of Trump's stance.
- Jonathan is furious that Witkoff, a supposedly neutral negotiator, is regurgitating Russian propaganda.
- He calls Witkoff "witless", criticising his belief in Russia's staged elections.
- Jonathan expresses disbelief at Witkoff's claim that Putin confided in him about praying after the alleged assassination attempt on Trump, labelling it a blatant manipulation tactic.
- Jonathan is enraged by Witkoff's refusal to acknowledge Putin as a "bad guy", calling him out for downplaying the horrors inflicted by Russia.
- US Loosening Sanctions:
- Adding insult to injury, Jonathan mentions a Bloomberg report suggesting the US is relaxing its enforcement of sanctions against Russia.
- He finds this appalling and hypocritical, given the US's supposed tough stance on sanctions.
- Ukraine's Dependence on US Intelligence:
- Jonathan believes Ukraine's reliance on US intelligence, particularly regarding ballistic missile tracking, gives the US significant leverage.
- He speculates that this dependence forces Ukraine to tolerate the US's harmful actions and statements.
- Jonathan concludes the segment, clearly disturbed by the recent developments and expressing his disgust with Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump, and Tucker Carlson.
Wrap up
🎦 36:14-36:17⏩
Jonathan ends the video, clearly frustrated by the events discussed. He signs off with "Toodlepips."
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