Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"To an observer, it may seem that advances can continue endlessly. However, the situation underscores the fact that Ukraine does not possess an unlimited supply of ammunition, much of which was provided by South Korea through the US. Furthermore, Ukraine does not have an inexhaustible pool of personnel in the already deployed brigades along the front lines."
Hello Team!
Jonathan had family sporting events to attend today so the update is a bit late. A lot of news bandwidth has been taken up by events in Israel and an earthquake in Afghanistan. Jonathan will cover the Israel situation and geopolitical ramifications for Ukraine in the next video.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 580 Russian personnel lost, 21 tanks, 21 APVs - high figures, especially for vehicles
- 17 artillery pieces lost - lower than recent days but still significant
- Ukrainians taking out higher value Russian equipment compared to their own losses based on visual confirmations (Source: Andrew Perpetua)
- Ukrainian 66th Brigade anti-tank company destroyed 25 Russian tanks in 4 days (Source: Yevlash)
- Footage shows multiple Russian T-90 tanks destroyed
Russian Tactics
Andrew Perpetua notes the Russians flew a drone into a police parking lot, blowing up civilian cars for no reason, trying to paint it as a victory. In occupied Novokorkovka, the car of the local United Russia party secretary was reportedly blown up and he later died of his wounds. It's unclear if this was partisan activity or a strike.
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Bakhmut
- Russians deploying all available reserves north of Bakhmut to prevent Ukrainian advance (Source: Yevlash)
- In recent weeks, Ukrainians have continued to advance around Bakhmut, inflicting losses on Russians
- ISW reported severe degradation of Russian forces in Bakhmut sector in September (Source: ISW)
- Patur Gami, a Ukrainian source, cautions against the narrative that Russians lack reserves, as it fosters unrealistic expectations. He argues Russians still have significant capabilities.
- Jonathan's view is that Russians likely don't have large reserves of quality troops, but enough to slow Ukrainian advances for now. Ukraine should focus on distance degradation of Russian forces before attempting major advances.
Drone/Missile Attacks
- Russia used over 500 Shahed drones against Ukraine in September alone, 1000 over last 6 months (Source: Yuri Ikhnatnat, Ukrainian Air Force)
- Russians struck Kostantinivka in Donetsk with Iskander missiles, damaging civilian infrastructure
- Yesterday's explosion near Dzhankoy in Crimea was a Ukrainian missile hitting a secret Russian special forces base, killing 21 elite troops (Source: Russian military bloggers). The base location may have been leaked by a local informant.
Wrap up
Jonathan hopes this update was informative. Please like, subscribe and share the channel! He appreciates all the wonderful support.
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