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Full Frontline Update

Front Line Thursday, 9th November 2023, 15:09
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"The situation is crinkyinky it feels like elves were delivered a truckload of fpv drones i'm done in other words ukrainian drone activity in the area is incredibly effective and very widespread"

Hello Team!

  • JR who helps with mapping is away until Sunday so Jonathan will be doing the mapping himself which takes longer
  • One of Jonathan's boys has a rugby trial today so timing wise he may not get an extra video out
  • Content over the next few days may be a bit later than normal


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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kupiansk to Svatove to Kreminna Front Line

  • According to the ISW, between Nov 1-6, Russian forces in this sector lost:
    • 1,826 personnel
    • 200 pieces of military equipment including:
    • 22 tanks
    • 54 armored combat vehicles
  • A phenomenal amount of kit lost in this area in 5 days of fighting
  • When the General Staff figures show high losses, a lot can be attributed to this area, not just Avdiivka and Bakhmut
  • According to Suriyak Maps, near Kotlyarivka and Krokomolna, Russians have pushed across the railway line improving their position northwest of Svatove


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Bakhmut

  • Appears the Russians have put Ukrainians on the back foot and stopped their momentum
  • Russians are pushing back in a number of places:
    • In the north near Yakovlivka, Russians have gained ground according to Andrew Perpetua
    • Further south in Klishchiivka area, Suriyak Maps suggests Russians have pushed back over the railway line, now on southern part of it
  • ISW doesn't provide much info apart from marginal Ukrainian gains from Bakivka which was already established a couple days ago
  • Russians are having some success and potentially pushing back in Bakhmut with quite a few troops there


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Avdiivka

  • A lot happening here with Russians putting pressure on and pushing Ukrainians back:
    • Russian blogger claimed Russians advanced to 400m from southern border of Avdiivka but no visual evidence yet
    • Russians continue to claim advances near Nevelske railway line but with high casualties
    • Ukrainian spokesperson stated Russians lost 585 personnel in one day during light infantry attacks without armored support
    • Slight Russian gains along railway line near Nevelske
    • North of Nevelske and west of Krasnohorivka, Russians appear to have gained a field and settlement area
  • ISW says:
    • Russian officials indicate commitment to Avdiivka effort despite high losses and bad weather
    • Russians have concentrated 40,000 reserves in Avdiivka direction
    • Recently attacking in groups of 10-20 and using drones to identify Ukrainian counter-battery elements
    • Ukrainians made marginal gains in counter-attacks near Vodyane
  • Distance between Russian positions north and south of Avdiivka now only 6.5km
  • National Guard says Russia attacking Avdiivka from 3 fronts, throwing infantry and drones at the city
  • If Russians continue to expend infantry to take small amounts of land, they will keep going until Avdiivka is operationally surrounded


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Vuhledar/Pavlivka

  • Geolocated footage from Nov 6 shows Russian forces advanced north of Pavlivka
  • Russians were hit in their APC and dismounted in the grey zone north of Pavlivka


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Velyka Novosilka

  • No meaningful updates to report


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Orikhiv/Hulyaipole

  • Ukrainians appear to have useful gains, pushing Russians back
  • The big oblong of Russian-controlled territory where they took tree lines with their best forces has been pushed back
  • Andrew Perpetua shows Russians pushed back behind tank ditches in first line of defense towards manned trenches behind
  • If Ukrainians continue to have success here, it bodes well and they could make creeping gains between Novoprokopivka and Vodyane like Russians are doing in Avdiivka


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Kherson/Dnipro River

  • ISW reports:
    • Russian bloggers claim Ukrainians maintain positions on east bank of Kherson and advanced near Krynky on Nov 8
    • On Nov 7-8, Ukrainians maintained positions in central Krynky
    • Some bloggers claim Ukrainians advancing from there at 1 meter per day
  • Ukrainians have expanded all along Krynky area over past week according to Andrew Perpetua
  • Ukrainians targeting Korsunka with hits, could be next place they try to take
  • Russian blogger reports:
    • Ukrainian drone activity in Krynky incredibly effective and widespread
    • Ukrainians unafraid to move at night, tense situation remains in forest south of Krynky
    • Between Piatykhatky and Kozachi Laheri, Ukrainians attempting to create another bridgehead by transferring forces
  • War Translated reports:
    • Ukrainians settling into tree lines south of Krynky, even used helicopter which scared Russians
    • Important Ukrainians used helicopter in Krynky area, firing unguided missiles, indicates degraded Russian air defenses locally
    • Also signifies Russians lack drones to spot helicopters and counter-battery fire, allowing Ukrainians to gain advantage with their drones


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Wrap Up

  • Kherson continues to be the area to watch for Ukrainians
  • Sadly for pro-Ukrainians, momentum has slowed in Klishchivka and Bakhmut areas
  • Could just be a pause as both sides take turns attacking for a few days
  • Ukrainians have taken some territorial losses north of Bakhmut which may be worrying
  • Like, subscribe and share the video!


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Summaries based on original content from Jonathan MS Pearce, J.R. (Cartographer)

I'm a bot! I summarise ATP Geopolitics videos