Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Mercenary Air Force, US Intelligence, & Loitering Munitions
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"A leased air force to Ukraine, however, is likely to be an attractive option to many in DC. The concept allows for a rapid, well-trained and cost-effective air force to confront Russia in the skies over Ukraine. More importantly, it provides a degree of separation from direct US military involvement and it's steps shorter, and this is steps shorter than the US entering the war."
Russian Navy ineffective in Black Sea
- The Russian Navy in the Black Sea is fairly ineffective and not doing a lot, so it does not get much coverage
- Russia's naval war effort has deteriorated from absolute dominance near Odessa in March 2022 to being bottled up in harbours, with some ships like the Moskva being sunk
- The Russians have pulled their naval fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk port on mainland Russia due to drone attacks, but this port is not as useful as Sevastopol
- The Russian fleet is unable to be used effectively, acting mainly as glorified rocket launchers that pop out to fire cruise missiles then return to port
US providing intelligence for Ukrainian HIMARS targeting
- According to a Washington Post article, the US is providing real-time intelligence and coordinates for the vast majority of HIMARS strikes by Ukraine
- Ukrainian forces almost never launch these advanced weapons without specific coordinates provided by US military personnel from a base in Europe
- The US does not directly approve targets but has an advisory role, with Ukraine sending desired targets to the US who then provide or deny precise coordinates
- This arrangement allows the US to have confidence in providing longer-range weapons to Ukraine
- Jonathan believes this is evidence of a proxy war, with the US and allies providing everything to Ukraine except troops on the ground
Increased use of kamikaze drones by Ukraine
- Kamikaze/one-way drones are being seen more on the battlefield in Ukrainian hands, with several different types being used
- Examples shown of a Switchblade 300 used to target Russian soldiers in trenches, and a Polish Warmate drone attacking a building sheltering Russian infantry
- Switchblade 300s are small, lightweight drones designed to take out 1-2 people, while the larger Switchblade 600 can target vehicles
Proposal for a mercenary air force for Ukraine
- An opinion piece in the Kyiv Post by a retired US Air Force colonel proposes contracting a private air force for Ukraine
- This addresses challenges of aircraft availability, long training times, and funding that make providing jets to Ukraine difficult
- In 2019, the US DoD outsourced aggressor air training to 7 private companies who now provide air power beyond just training
- These companies could potentially meet Ukraine's air power needs, with a squadron ready in 60-90 days at a reasonable operating cost of $30K per flight hour
- Two companies, Top Aces and Draken, have procured F-16s that could provide substantial capability
- A leased air force allows rapid, well-trained, cost-effective confrontation of Russia in Ukraine's skies with some separation from direct US military involvement
- However, private contracted pilots would likely be deemed "unprivileged" if captured, potentially facing criminal charges rather than POW status
Wagner Group stops recruiting convicts
- Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner private military company, announced they have completely stopped recruiting convicts
- The reason is unspecified - potentially the Russian army doing this recruiting themselves, lack of willing recruits, or Wagner losing favour and being nudged out of active fronts
- It remains to be seen if Wagner will retreat from the conflict and cease to be a going concern
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, for their support, and for helping the channel reach over 7,000 subscribers. He appreciates the engaging comments but notes they take up a lot of his time. He signs off until tomorrow.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
The transcript was clear, no major queries. A couple minor points:
The specific location of the US base in Europe providing intelligence to Ukraine was not stated
Exact details on why Wagner stopped recruiting convicts were not provided
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Extract video title, date and part from the YouTube title provided
Watch for key topics discussed and summarize each in order, including any relevant sources/credits mentioned
Note any of Jonathan's insights, analysis, philosophy or opinions shared
Include an introduction and wrap up section
Select a key quote from the video
Use British English spellings and grammar
Format using the provided XML structure
Note anything that was unclear from the transcript
