Ukraine War Update NEWS: 2x AP's Equipment Loss Lists
Table of Contents 📖
"And that will be as I keep mentioning because Kursk is an area where the Ukrainians are on the offensive and that means that they will be losing equipment particularly infantry fighting vehicles and APCs and MRAPs so that's why we are seeing close to parity across the the days usually but the good news from say the September 3rd here is that the Russians are doubling the combat asset losses of the Ukrainians"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:40⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video, explaining that this is the first part of the news update for the 6th of July 2024. He mentions that he'll be focusing on two of Andrew Perpetua's equipment loss lists in this video, covering the 2nd and 3rd of September, as there was a backlog over the weekend. He'll address the 4th of September list in the main video to follow. Jonathan aims to provide insight into the types of equipment being lost and avoids making the main video excessively long.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
September 2nd: Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 00:40-05:06⏩
Jonathan begins by analysing the equipment losses from September 2nd, noting that Ukrainian losses slightly exceeded Russian losses.
- Russian Losses: Artillery and tanks constituted the majority of Russian losses.
- Ukrainian Losses: Ukrainians lost slightly more combat assets, a larger number of civilian vehicles, but fewer trucks. Notably, there were losses of surveillance and communication equipment, some potentially supplied by the US. Destroyed equipment included:
- M109L and M109A6 howitzers.
- Three out of five tanks, including T-64BVs.
- One Bradley infantry fighting vehicle destroyed and one damaged.
- Discussion on Bradley IFVs: This sparked a discussion about the potential for the US to provide more Bradleys, considering the consistent losses. Jonathan mentioned the recent US aid packages, approximately $200 million each, lacking significant equipment apart from essential ammunition.
- Upcoming Aid and Presidential Drawdown Authority: He highlighted the upcoming Ramstein meeting and the potential for a $250 million aid package. Additionally, Jonathan discussed the possibility of the Biden administration utilizing a significant portion of the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) funds, potentially billions of dollars, before the end of September. He noted concerns about the lack of foresight and potential panic in the administration. However, he clarified that the administration could simply announce intentions to provide equipment, like 200 Bradleys, with delivery scheduled for a later date.
- Additional Losses: Other Ukrainian losses included a captured Humvee, a Kozak 7 MRAP, a damaged French VAB APC, and various Kozaks and Max Pros. The Russians lost four boats, a Grad multiple launch rocket system, several tanks, and a considerable number of trucks and civilian vehicles.
- Footage of Kursk Region: Jonathan described footage from the Kursk region showing a considerable amount of destroyed Russian equipment along the road, primarily trucks and SUVs used near the front lines.
September 3rd: Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 05:06-08:40⏩
Jonathan moves on to the September 3rd equipment loss list, observing a higher number of Russian losses compared to Ukrainian losses. * Overall Losses: Russian losses were significantly higher, especially in combat assets, reaching a ratio of 2:1 compared to Ukrainian losses. * Ukrainian Losses: Losses included surveillance and comms equipment, a destroyed Bogdana 2S22 self-propelled gun (likely hit by shelling), several damaged tanks, three damaged Soviet-era infantry fighting vehicles, an APC, a Senator M113, a Humvee, and various MRAPs like Kirpi and Kozak.
- Concern over Artillery Range: Jonathan raised a point about the Bogdana being hit by shelling, questioning the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery range compared to Russian artillery. He acknowledged that older artillery pieces, like the M46, might have a longer range, but generally, Russian artillery is believed to have a shorter range.
* Russian Losses: The Russians lost an electronic warfare system, a recovery vehicle, artillery pieces, T-72 tanks, a significant number of infantry fighting vehicles (primarily BMP-2s), and several APCs (mostly MTLBs). Jonathan pointed out the high percentage of destroyed and abandoned Russian equipment compared to damaged equipment, particularly for tanks (100%) and infantry fighting vehicles (70%). He speculated that the increased Russian losses, especially in infantry fighting vehicles, could be attributed to the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region.
- Kursk Offensive and Equipment Losses: He emphasised that the closer-to-parity loss ratios are expected due to the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, where they are more likely to lose equipment like infantry fighting vehicles, APCs, and MRAPs.
Increased Russian Losses and Mechanised Attacks
🎦 08:40-09:15⏩
Jonathan concluded his analysis by highlighting the positive trend of increasing Russian equipment losses, noting that their combat asset losses were double that of Ukraine on September 3rd. He linked this to reports and footage of repelled mechanised attacks, particularly in the area from Velyka Novosilka up to Pryiutivka, where numerous Russian vehicles were reportedly destroyed.
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Wrap Up
🎦 09:15-09:19⏩
Jonathan finishes the video by reiterating that he wanted to present the information from September 2nd and 3rd separately to avoid a lengthy main video. He signs off, thanking viewers and saying goodbye.
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