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Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News

News🔷Hits and Losses🔷Geopolitics🔷Military Aid Tuesday, 4th July 2023, 09:52
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"The more effective the former, the more the latter. We are acting calmly, wisely, step by step."

Hello Team!

Jonathan starts the video with his usual greeting, "Hello team and welcome to another ATP Geopolitics video with myself Jonathan MS Pierce."

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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA

  1. These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
  2. These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
  3. All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
  4. Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
  5. Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
  6. Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
  7. Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
  8. All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
  9. Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.

Russian Losses

  • 770 liquidated Russian personnel, an uptick from previous days
  • 2 tanks, 9 APVs, 32 artillery systems, 6 MLRS, 3 anti-aircraft warfare systems (significant), 29 drones, 9 vehicles/fuel tanks lost
  • Alexei Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, described recent days as "fruitful" in destroying Russian resources
  • Ukraine's defence forces are fulfilling the primary task of maximum destruction of Russian manpower, equipment, fuel depots, military vehicles, command posts, artillery and air defence
  • Jonathan agrees this is sensible - degrade Russian forces before launching a major attack


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Oryx Visually Confirmed Losses

  • 38 Russian losses vs 15 Ukrainian losses
  • Russian losses include tanks, IFVs, artillery, Strela air defense systems, helicopter, drones
  • Ukrainian losses include 1 Leopard tank, BMP, Bradley, MRAPs, artillery, radar system
  • Ratios continue to be in Ukraine's favour in terms of equipment lost


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Other News

  • Akhmat special forces commander Yevgeny Pisarenko died in Ukraine, possibly Zaporizhzhia
  • Chief prosecutor of Chuvashia Republic Andrey Fomin drowned while swimming across Volga River
  • Massive fire at a furniture factory in Moscow, part of ongoing fires across Russia damaging the economy


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Missile Attacks & Drone Strikes

  • Explosion in Skadovsk, Kherson region
  • Kamikaze drones hit military facilities in Kubinka and Vnukovo airport in Moscow, Russia claims "terrorist attack"
  • Melitopol hit overnight
  • Sumy region hit by 4 drone attacks yesterday, 4 dead ~20 injured, residential buildings destroyed
  • Chonhar bridge allowing traffic again after being hit by Storm Shadow missiles previously


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Military Aid

  • F-16s:
    • Ukraine ready to begin F-16 transfer process, list of pilots approved
    • Training was supposed to start in June but delayed, concerning as Ukraine needs them ASAP
    • NATO chief says Ukraine unlikely to receive F-16s before counter-offensive ends
  • Leopard 1A5 tanks:
    • Ukraine to receive dozens of Leopard 1A5s from Germany
    • Not considered a "game changer" due to insufficient armour
    • Thermal imaging and ability to support infantry attacks is what matters


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Mobilization

  • Russia: Colleges in Ingushetia issuing diplomas only if students accept mobilization, face fines or imprisonment for refusing, a "crypto mobilization"
  • Ukraine: Video of military enlistment office employees entering a home and threatening a man, hinting at Ukraine's need for more soldiers, but video unverified


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Wagner Group

  • Yevgeny Prigozhin's empire being dismantled - lost food contract with MOD, personnel changes in veteran's league leadership
  • Prigozhin posted ad offering Wagner's services to order military equipment from China and deliver to Russia, bypassing sanctions
  • Concerning that Wagner still active and China potentially providing military equipment to Russia


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Geopolitics

Ukraine designated British corporation Unilever as "international sponsor of war" for not exiting Russia

  • Unilever paid ~$50M in taxes to Russia in 2022, profits increased to $117M
  • Unilever owns 400+ brands like Dove, Ben & Jerry's, Hellman's, Knorr, etc.
  • While not illegal, it is morally questionable. Public pressure may force Unilever's hand.


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Wrap up

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and reminds them to like, subscribe and share. He signs off with "take care of yourselves and I'll speak to you later in the frontline update."

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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

No parts of the transcript were unclear to me. I was able to understand and summarize all the key points Jonathan covered in the video.

🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process

Steps: Read through the transcript and identify the main topics covered For each topic, summarize the key points in a concise manner Use bullet points or numbered lists to organize the summary Bold or italicize important terms, numbers, or phrases for emphasis If Jonathan revisits a topic later, merge the information into the first mention of the topic Include any sources, credits or thanks given by Jonathan Capture Jonathan's opinions, insights and analysis on the topics Include mentions of tea and use British English spellings Use Ukrainian spellings for place names Include Jonathan's sign off and closing remarks in a "Wrap up" section Select the most profound or poignant quote from the video Review the summary to ensure all key topics are covered and the information is accurate

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Summaries based on original content from Jonathan MS Pearce

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