Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"Remember I've got the grey zone lines at the moment which means that the second blue line...this is a Russian defensive line for Andrew Perpetua, the Russian defensive line for Deep State map, the Russian defensive line for Syriac maps and this one is the Ukrainian defensive line...and that gives you a sense of where the grey zone is..."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:16⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics Frontline Update, this one covering the 23rd of May 2024. He reminds viewers to familiarise themselves with the map key if needed before diving into the frontline analysis.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Northern Frontline: Limited Changes & Speculation over Russian Strategy

🎦 00:16-02:18⏩

Jonathan highlights that, surprisingly, there have been no changes in the two northern sectors. While some pro-Ukrainian sources suggest Ukrainian forces are pushing back near Vovchansk, Jonathan remains sceptical. Despite committing significant reserves, the Russian offensive appears to have stalled, a fact Jonathan finds "less than impressive." He questions the logic of potentially drawing troops from other areas like Kupiansk, especially if the northern offensive is meant to be a diversion. He notes that while the Ukrainians seem to be losing more equipment, the situation could be much worse, reflecting on a hypothetical scenario where those 50,000 troops were deployed elsewhere with greater impact.

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Kreminna to Svatove & Bakhmut: Static Lines & Potential Russian Advance

🎦 02:18-04:45⏩

Jonathan observes stability on the front line from Kupiansk to Svatove to Kreminna, which is positive news for Ukrainian defenders. He does, however, point to reports from Suriat Maps indicating a Russian advance north of Bakhmut near Vesely. Suriat Maps suggests Russian forces are attempting to capture a trench system overlooking Rosdolivka from the northeast, taking advantage of the elevated terrain. Jonathan examines the topography, acknowledging the challenges posed by the terrain for forces attacking those heights. Despite this potential Russian success, he notes that other map sources have not yet confirmed this advance. He also expresses reservations about the reported Russian movement towards Yablunivka, south-west of Spirne, as it would leave a vulnerable pocket in the frontline, questioning the strategic logic. He acknowledges this area has historically seen fluctuating levels of activity but speculates that sustained Russian pressure here would require Ukraine to adjust its defensive posture and reserve deployment.

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Chasiv Yar & Klishchivka: Using Photography to Understand the Battlefield

🎦 04:45-08:05⏩

Jonathan showcases a new feature introduced by JR, who meticulously updates the maps used in the channel, allowing viewers to see photographs of specific locations on the frontline. He highlights images of the Chasiv Yar canal, revealing a recently-destroyed makeshift bridge. Images from Klishchivka illustrate the level of destruction, with the village reduced to rubble, and offer a perspective on the challenging terrain around the settlement, particularly for Ukrainian defenders. He points out the hills west of Klishchivka, which provide a line-of-sight advantage to forces holding that high ground. He concludes by thanking JR for this enhancement, emphasising its value in providing context and a sense of place to what would otherwise be abstract lines on a map.

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Chasiv Yar & Andriivka: Russian Gains and Mapping Discrepancies

🎦 08:05-11:38⏩

Jonathan analyses the situation in Chasiv Yar, noting discrepancies between various map sources. Suriat Maps suggest significant Russian gains, pushing into the grey zone north of the Canal Microdistrict, an area Andrea Perpetua, another map source, depicts as a Ukrainian defensive line. Despite reported Ukrainian counterattacks, Suriat Maps indicates Russian forces have secured the northern part of the Canal Microdistrict. Deep State Maps partially corroborates this, showing a Russian advance south of the Canal Microdistrict into a forested area north of the T0504 road. Jonathan speculates that the Russians are likely aiming to cross the canal culvert in this area to facilitate an attack northwards. Further south, in Klishchivka, Deep State Maps confirms limited Russian gains north of the settlement, contrasting with Suriat Maps, which claims the entire village, including its trench network, was captured by Russian forces. Jonathan voices scepticism about the speed and scale of this claimed advance. Similarly, Suriat Maps reports the fall of Andriivka to Russian forces, who are allegedly advancing towards a water canal to the west, a claim Jonathan again finds dubious due to the timeframe involved, though acknowledges the possibility of Russian gains in these areas.

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Avdiivka Sector: Limited Russian Gains and Stalled Offensives

🎦 11:38-12:49⏩

Jonathan reviews the Avdiivka sector, observing that the Russian advance towards Nova Oleksandrivka and the key road connecting Kostiantynivka to Pokrovsk seems to have stalled. He notes this lack of progress applies to the entire northern area, including around Nova Bakhmutivka. Although viewing this as positive for Ukraine, he cautions against complacency, pointing out that Russian offensives in this sector have been characterised by periods of inactivity followed by renewed pushes. He attributes a minor Russian gain in the sector to their capture of Umanska, one of the last settlements in the area they had yet to capture. He describes the wider area around the Derha River, highlighting settlements like Vasylivka, Keramik, Novobakhmutivka, Krasnohorivka, Stepove, and Netailove, the latter now largely under Russian control.

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Krasnohorivka: Russian Gains and Strategic Significance

🎦 12:49-14:15⏩

Moving to the Krasnohorivka sector, Jonathan notes both Deep State Maps and Suriat Maps indicate Russian gains southwest of the town. Suriat Maps claims Russian forces captured Firmaska Street and the Alexandrovskaya Farm over a four-day period and highlights ongoing fighting in Krasnohorivka's centre. Jonathan underlines the strategic significance of the town; its capture by Russian forces would give them control over a much larger area. He emphasises that Ukraine is highly motivated to prevent this, preferring to keep Russian forces bogged down in Krasnohorivka rather than allowing them to advance closer to other settlements further west. Finally, he mentions Suriat Maps’ claim of small Russian gains in Novomayorske, advancing through Paryzkamylivka and moving westward towards Kostiantynivka.

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Eastern Front Overview: Su-25 Downed & Southern Front Update

🎦 14:15-15:11⏩

Jonathan briefly shifts focus to the broader eastern front, noting the downing of a second Russian Su-25 in two days, this one attributed to the 110th Brigade. While the exact location is unclear, he speculates it likely occurred in the east where Russian reliance on such aircraft is heavier and where Ukrainian air defences are likely more concentrated. He contrasts this with the ongoing debate about Ukrainian strikes into Russian territory like Belgorod and acknowledges that Su-25 deployment might be less frequent in the south, despite some use along the Dnipro River. While acknowledging the difficulty of confirming aircraft downings based solely on imagery, he points to evidence suggesting the Su-25 was indeed destroyed.

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Velyka Novosilka: Russian Advances and Pro-Russian Claims

🎦 15:11-18:06⏩

Jonathan turns his attention to the Velyka Novosilka sector, where Russian forces appear to be making headway, particularly around Staromaiorske. Suriat Maps details Russian advances over several days, claiming they now control 40% of Staromaiorske and have made gains west of the settlement, pushing towards Rivnopil. Jonathan introduces Rebar, a pro-Russian source, who corroborates these claims, describing a Russian offensive in the Vremivka direction encompassing the Velyka Novosilka area. Rebar highlights the preparatory bombardment of Ukrainian rear areas by Russian artillery and aviation before a renewed assault and boasts of a 150m advance along Vishneva and Sadovaya Streets in Staromaiorske, claiming the capture of four Ukrainian strongholds. However, Rebar acknowledges Ukrainian forces are putting up stiff resistance, clinging to the village's ruins, forcing Russian forces to rely heavily on air support and drones to suppress Ukrainian positions. Further south in Urozhayne, Rebar claims Russian forces are advancing through low-rise buildings on the southern edge, pushing along Sadovaya Street and a nearby forest plantation, and have captured up to 10 buildings. Despite this, he admits Ukrainian troops remain entrenched in parts of the agricultural complex, hindering further Russian progress in the area. Rebar concludes by highlighting Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian logistics, stating that Russian aircraft have carried out a third strike in a month on a bridge over the Mokri Yaly River in Velyka Novosilka, a claim Jonathan connects to either of two bridges visible on the map.

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Robotyne: Russian Gains & Syriac Maps Reliability

🎦 18:06-18:55⏩

Shifting focus to Robotyne, Jonathan highlights Russian gains north of Vodyane. Referring to Syriac Maps, he emphasises that while this source, like Deep State Maps, should be approached with caution, it often provides an early indication of potential future developments on the frontline. Syriac Maps indicates Russian forces have made advances northwest of Vodyane, capturing a series of trenches from Ukrainian defenders.

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Possible Ukrainian Withdrawal from Krinky?

🎦 18:55-21:03⏩

Jonathan discusses a development he was hesitant to mention earlier but provides context for, referencing information from Stanislav Aseyev, a Ukrainian serviceman previously positioned in Bakhmut but now reporting from the Krynky area. Aseyev, from the 24th Aidar Battalion, suggests changes are afoot on the left bank of the Dnipro River near Krynky. He cryptically states Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from their positions on the outskirts of Krynky and established themselves in a more fortified location on the left bank after inflicting heavy casualties on Russian forces using cluster munitions. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about these claims, particularly the reference to "safer positions on the left bank." He speculates that Ukrainian forces might have retreated from their exposed positions in Krynky, which has been subjected to intense bombardment, and redeployed elsewhere on the frontline where their presence is more critical. He acknowledges the possibility of an alternative Ukrainian position in the area but reiterates his earlier observation that holding Krynky, given its current state of devastation, might be strategically untenable.

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Wrap Up

🎦 21:03-21:10⏩

Jonathan concludes the frontline update by expressing gratitude to JR for his meticulous mapping work. He thanks viewers for watching and signs off.

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