Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"Lots of pins on the map and most of them the wrong colour."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:18⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to another frontline update from ATP Geopolitics. He lets viewers know that he's not using the ISW map for this update as he's doing a "slightly quicker one". He's been working on an 'EXTRA' video which will likely be released later in the evening.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Map pre-amble and thanks

🎦 00:19-00:30⏩

Jonathan reminds viewers to check the screen for an explanation of the lines on the map and thanks JR for his work on the mapping.

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Overview of the situation on the frontline and weather conditions

🎦 00:31-01:28⏩

Jonathan says that the situation for the Ukrainians is "very difficult" and the hot weather is making things challenging for both sides. Ideally the ground would be hard in the summer, but record-breaking temperatures are causing problems. He references a conversation he had with Greg (who provides on the ground updates from Ukraine) who says that the situation in the south is "horrible" and "a shambles", with artillery struggling in all areas except Orikhiv (where Ukrainian artillery is working well). Orikhiv is under constant rocket attack and is "burning".

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Orikhiv - Robotyne

🎦 01:28-02:05⏩

Jonathan highlights the Orikhiv and Robotyne areas on the map. This is the area where Greg has said that Ukrainian artillery is working effectively. Jonathan reiterates his question about how much strength and depth the Russians have. He believes that the Russians will be looking to advance on Terestk, Krasnoyarsk (which he believes will eventually fall) and that they will encounter significant fortifications before Prokofsk. He points out the road running between Prokofsk and Terestk and says that cutting this road would be a concern.

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Western Mariinka - Korakovo - Kosantynivka - Paraskevivka

🎦 02:07-02:33⏩

Jonathan states that it appears that Russian forces have not made any further inroads into Western Mariinka, but that they may try again. He is concerned about some towns (that will be discussed in more depth later) as Russian forces advance towards Korakovo, highlighting Kosantynivka as one of them. There appears to be no change from Paraskevivka. Jonathan believes that the situation there is "difficult, but they (the Ukrainians) seem to have kept that in check".

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Chasiv Yar

🎦 02:33-03:07⏩

Jonathan moves on to Chasiv Yar, saying that it is "really, really tough". The Russians will need to cross the canal there to advance and he expects that they will try to use the culverts. Jonathan suggests that this would make sense as they would avoid having to cross the canal itself. However, he points out that this would leave them having to deal with pipelines. He goes on to say that if the Ukrainians are aware of these plans, they would be able to prepare to defend them. He believes that the Russians appear to be engaging in deep battle doctrine - applying pressure in many areas to identify and exploit any Ukrainian weaknesses.

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Northern Front - Synkivka, Kupyansk, Svatove, Kreminna

🎦 03:07-07:03⏩

In the northern sectors, the Suriat Maps map shows that Russian forces have pushed back Ukrainian forces in the vicinity of the northern agricultural warehouses near Synkivka. They have pushed back somewhat in line with the defensive line on the Andrew Perpetua map. This is indicative of some success in the area for Russian forces. There has also been discussion of Russian forces moving across the Vovcha River, south towards a sports ground. The Suriat Maps map shows that the Russians have taken control of this area, although Jonathan urges caution as Suriat Maps is quick to update based on Russian MoD claims. He says that Suriat Maps jumps on Russian MoD claims "unquestioningly" and without any scepticism and reminds viewers to be "a little bit careful" when referring to this map. That being said, it doesn't mean that they aren't having some success in the area (pushing back Ukrainian forces) as they have claimed in the area north east of Vovchansk (where the Russians have made some small gains). Jonathan will be looking to see if other mapmakers agree with Suriat Maps' assessment of the situation over the coming days. Moving on to the north eastern axis, between Kupyansk, Svatove and Kreminna, a number of red pins (indicating Russian advances) are visible. Jonathan highlights the red pin just north west of Synkivka in the forested area as "worrying". He points out that this is only according to Suriat Maps. In fact, there's a big difference between Suriat Maps and Andriy Perpetua in this area - potentially due to the difficulties of accurately mapping the forest. Tree coverage makes it difficult to identify landmarks such as tree lines, rivers, windbreaks etc. which makes geolocation more difficult. Andrew Perpetua's map does however seem to agree with Deep State and Suriat Maps in the area to the west of Volodymyrivka and north of Novoselivske (Pischane area). This relates to the Russian advance towards the Oskil river that has been discussed previously. To clarify, this is north west of Svatove. The two areas where the Russians are pushing are around Krokmalne / Volodymyrivka and further south around Kolomichykha. In this latter area, Russian forces are pushing towards Stelmakhivka. This was visible on yesterday's updated Suriat Map (although not on the one Jonathan created earlier). This was discussed in yesterday's video and although not on the map at the time, this confirms that Russian forces have advanced slightly in this area. The Andrew Perpetua map shows that Russian forces have made further advances north of Makiivka, although this is also in line with previous mapping from other map makers. The new information is the two areas mentioned in the north, and the area by Stelmakhivka.

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Lya Bakai (north of Kharkiv)

🎦 07:03-07:31⏩

Moving on, Jonathan highlights a report from 'No Reports Actually' about the situation near Lya Bakai (north of Kharkiv) - an area he forgot to mention earlier. New geolocated footage appears to confirm earlier assessments that Ukrainian forces have advanced into the northern part of the settlement and fighting is ongoing in the centre.

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Seversk - Verkhnokamyanske, Verkhnokamyanske

🎦 07:31-08:24⏩

On the Seversk front, there is good news for the Ukrainians with gains being made and Russian forces being pushed back in the Verkhnokamyanske area, to the west of the settlement. Jonathan jokes about the geographical confusion of having two very similar place names so near each other. This advance appears to be in line with the other two maps (although Suriat Maps shows a greater push back of Russian forces). It is unclear whether this is a re-positioning of Russian forces or a Ukrainian counter attack, as there is no mention from Suriat maps. Sometimes Suriat Maps does this - quietly changing the maps without explanation, especially when Ukraine makes gains. Moving south, there is no change around Chasiv Yar (despite it being "hellish" there) with a lot of air and artillery activity. The town has been heavily bombarded but is well dug in.

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Klishchiivka

🎦 08:24-09:16⏩

There is no change to report from Klishchiivka.

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Torec - Pivnichne - New York

🎦 09:16-10:41⏩

In the Toretsk area, there has been no change around the two areas where there is a pincer movement around Pivnichne, where Ukrainian forces have been coming under pressure. The main concern for the Ukrainians is New York where the Russians have made significant gains. Jonathan removes the Ukrainian defensive lines from the Perpetua map as there are too many in this area to make them visible. Looking at the salient/bridgehead, it is clear that the Russians are making gains. It is narrow and Jonathan has mentioned before that the Ukrainian defence appears to be thin here. He believes that the Ukrainians were not expecting an attack here. This could mean that Ukrainian reserves are not sufficient and that they are not in a strong position to counter attack and cut off Russian forces at the base. It is possible that they may not be able to do this. It is also possible that they don't have the capacity to commit the reserves to this area, meaning that containment rather than counter attack is the only option. Cutting off Russian forces here would make sense as it would isolate them, so the fact that the Ukrainians aren't doing this probably means that they can't. This could indicate a lack of reserves, which is worrying. Both Suriat Maps and Andrew Perpetua agree that the Russians have taken control of the tree line and Perpetua has made changes to his map reflecting Russian gains on the western side of the bridgehead and at the top.

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New York

🎦 10:41-11:35⏩

Jonathan refers to a No Reports Actually tweet which states that Russian forces have advanced further into New York, reaching the centre and fighting continues. The Russians are increasingly using guided bombs such as the FAB-500 and FAB-1000 to attack Ukrainian forward positions - this is all part of their combined arms manoeuvre.

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Avdiivka

🎦 11:35-13:15⏩

In the Avdiivka sector, the Suriat Maps map shows gains being made by Russian forces towards the T0504 highway that links Prokofsk to Kostantynivka (in the semi-circle of towns behind Chasiv Yar). Russians are getting closer in the northern part of this area. According to Suriat Maps, the Russians have begun their advance from eastern Novoselivka Persha and continue to push north, taking control of the 'Sandclock' trench system. They have also made further advances in the direction of Vodiane. Jonathan points out these areas on the map. The Russians have advanced from Novooleksandrivka. Further south, around Novoselivka Persha, the Russians now control the 'Sandclock' trench system and according to Suriat Maps are now inside Novoselivka Persha in the north, and have taken some agricultural warehouses. They are also advancing from the east. The situation here does not look good for Ukrainian forces. Just north of this area, the Andrew Perpetua map agrees that the area west of Sukhy Balka and north of Voskhod is under Russian control. However, this is not new information, rather a reflection of advances made previously.

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Yevhenivka - Sokil

🎦 13:15-14:02⏩

Jonathan refers to a 'No Reports Actually' tweet about the situation in the Yevhenivka - Sokil area (last mentioned a moment ago). Russian forces have advanced south from Yevhenivka, after taking control of Sokil. They are advancing rapidly and Ukrainian forces are establishing new defensive lines further to the west. Jonathan searches for the settlements on the map.

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Krasnohorivka

🎦 14:02-15:29⏩

Moving south to Krasnohorivka, there is another claim from Suriat Maps that Russian forces have seized the northern warehouses (mentioned earlier). Jonathan reads from a tweet about the situation in Krasnohorivka: "The situation has been updated. The area in the south east that was previously considered a grey zone due to a local Ukrainian counter attack, is now again occupied by Russia. Russians also moved into the centre, coming from the east. The situation does not look good there." Jonathan's view is that Krasnohorivka will fall to the Russians - "there's no doubt about that". He refers to the south eastern area where the Ukrainians launched the counter attack using Bradleys but Russian forces have now retaken it. Both Suriat Maps and Andrew Perpetua's maps show that the Russians are consistently gaining ground.

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Dnipro River - Robotyne

🎦 15:29-15:46⏩

There is no change to report from the Dnipro River or Robotyne.

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Velyka Novosilka - Urozhayne

🎦 15:46-16:20⏩

There has been a slight change in the Velyka Novosilka sector, where Russian forces have taken a small part of Urozhayne as they advance. A tweet confirms that Russian forces are now fighting in the centre of Urozhayne after taking the last warehouses in the south and a number of streets. This hasn't yet been reflected in the other maps.

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Overview and analysis of the situation on the frontline

🎦 16:20-17:41⏩

Overall, there has been a lot of pressure in a number of areas and although some of the map updates reflect previously reported gains, new ground has been taken. Russian forces continue to grind and make territorial gains in the usual places, and a number of sectors have opened up on the north eastern axis between Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna, where Russian forces are "definitely pushing" hard. Jonathan believes that they are trying to capitalise on the current weather conditions - even though temperatures are extremely high, it will be more advantageous for the Russians to attack now rather than wait for the wet autumn weather to arrive which will make it much harder to move equipment. As predicted, this is proving to be a very difficult time for the Ukrainians (July-August-September).

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Military Aid and Ukrainian indigenous defence production

🎦 17:41-19:07⏩

Ukrainian forces are expecting to receive F-16s but Jonathan believes that it will take some time for them to arrive and be operational. Initially, they are more likely to operate from further back from the frontlines in the east, shooting down missiles and drones. Once they have found their feet/wings, they will probably be used nearer to the frontline. A lot more equipment is on its way, but much of it appears to be air defences. Jonathan wonders when we will see a large delivery of Bradleys and other fighting vehicles. Ukraine is ramping up its indigenous manufacturing capabilities, which means that more Bohdana self propelled howitzers and Wyshyns are rolling off the production lines. It's not yet clear whether the Lynx IFV or the Fuchs APCs (both manufactured by Rheinmetall) will be coming off the production line anytime soon, despite claims that they were due to be manufactured by the end of this year. If they are able to start making their own IFVs, this will be a significant development for Ukraine.

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Wrap up

🎦 19:07-19:09⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share.

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