Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"It is highly likely in analyst, intelligence to speak highly likely that Russia did it."
Hello Team!
Jonathan warns his video timings may be off this weekend due to his son's football match and rugby tournament.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian and Russian Losses
- Ukraine claims Russia lost 580 personnel, 3 tanks, 3 APCs, 3 artillery systems, 4 drones, 21 cruise missiles, 17 vehicles/fuel tanks, 2 special equipment pieces
- Over 50% of dead Russian soldiers died from non-life threatening wounds due to lack of proper treatment
- 30% had unnecessary amputations from improper tourniquet use, per head of tactical medicine training at Kalashnikov concern
- Prigozhin admits Russia is losing more soldiers than it should, blaming lack of ammunition
- In past 2 days, Ukraine lost 14 vehicles (incl. 1 tank) vs Russia's 42 (incl. more tanks/IFVs) per Jakub Janovsky who assists Oryx
- However, Russia took out more Ukrainian air defense systems in that period
Cruise Missile Attacks
- British intelligence suggests Russia's cruise missile attack on April 28 was likely attempting to hit Ukrainian reserve units and newly supplied military aid
- At least 25 civilians were killed, including 23 in an apartment building strike in Uman
- Russia prioritizes perceived military necessity over preventing civilian casualties
- The Russian MOD allegedly produced a meme saying "Right on Target" about the Uman attack, showing a callous disregard for civilian lives
Russian Ammunition and Missile Stocks
- Captured Russian ammunition appears very new, suggesting they are running low on older stockpiles
- Russia seems to be using cruise missiles at the rate of production, indicating diminished reserves
- Only 23 missiles were launched in latest attack, matching estimated production tempo
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Targets
- Ukraine used drones to hit a significant Russian oil depot in occupied Sevastopol, causing major damage and fires
- A Russian officer base 20km from front lines was destroyed by Ukrainian HIMARS
Wagner Group
- Prigozhin admits Wagner will likely cease to exist soon as their role has diminished around Bakhmut
- He accuses Russian military of holding up ammunition, causing 5x increase in mercenary casualties
- Those responsible will have to answer to families of the deceased, he says
Military Aid
- First Danish Caesar howitzers have arrived in Ukraine; CV90 IFVs to arrive soon
- Ukrainian crews have begun training on Leopard 1 tanks; 80 will be delivered starting mid-2023
- 20 more Italian M109L howitzers being refurbished for Ukraine
- Germany has offered to produce 250,000 of the 1 million 155mm shells the EU plans to provide Ukraine
- US Democrats demand Biden provide F-16s and long-range missiles to Ukraine
- Providing aid benefits the US Army, allowing it to acquire newer equipment at lower cost due to volume
Geopolitics
- French counterintelligence broke up a Russian spy ring in wake of other incidents
- New evidence strongly suggests Russia was behind the Nord Stream pipeline attacks
- A Russian submarine rescue ship and deep-submergence vessel were in the area days before the explosions
- An independent review found Amnesty International's controversial report accusing Ukraine of endangering civilians was not sufficiently substantiated
- Japan's PM will tour Africa to try to convince countries to move away from neutrality on the Ukraine war
Wrap up
Jonathan has to leave for his son's football match. He thanks viewers and signs off.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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