Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Crimea becomes untenable."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:13⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War News Update - the first part for 11th June 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Clarifying Comments about Russian Losses and Importance of "Steel Manning" Arguments
🎦 00:13-02:40⏩
Jonathan addresses criticisms from the previous day regarding his comments about Russian losses. He reiterates that even if the figures presented by the Ukrainian General Staff are inflated, Russia would still be facing unsustainable losses. He stresses the importance of accurately representing an argument (steel-manning) rather than misrepresenting it to discredit it (straw-manning) - a technique often used against him by pro-Russian viewers.
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Analysis of Russian Losses Based on Ukrainian General Staff Figures
🎦 02:40-04:45⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest figures for Russian losses from the Ukrainian General Staff, highlighting the following:
- Personnel: 1,100 (high but on the lower end of the range).
- Tanks: 23 (massively above average)
- Armoured Personnel Carriers: 32 (double the daily average)
- Artillery Systems: 46 (triple the daily average)
- Multiple Launch Rocket System: 1
- Anti-Aircraft Warfare Systems: 5 (likely a result of the strikes on Crimea)
- Aircraft: 1 (confirmed later)
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 58
- Special Equipment: 21 (potentially including radars)
Jonathan believes this indicates a bad day for the Russians, particularly their air defence coverage. He predicts this could make Ukrainian strikes into Crimea, Belgorod, and Russia more likely.
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BBC and Mediazona Report on Wagner Mercenary Deaths in Bakhmut
🎦 05:09-18:21⏩
Jonathan discusses a new report by BBC Russia and Mediazona, which investigates the deaths of Wagner mercenaries during the Battle of Bakhmut, finding that the number of prisoner casualties was far higher than previously acknowledged. Key findings include:
- At least 17,000 of the nearly 20,000 Wagner mercenaries killed in Bakhmut were prisoners.
- Wagner primarily recruited prisoners from Krasnoyarsk IK-6, a strict regime prison.
- The report challenges Yevgeny Prigozhin's claims that Wagner's losses were due to the Ministry of Defence's failure to provide adequate ammunition.
- Evidence suggests Wagner suffered its highest daily losses (200-300 mercenaries per day) in January, before Prigozhin's public complaints about ammunition shortages.
- The report indicates that Wagner's use of prisoner mercenaries, while brutal and immoral, was effective in capturing Bakhmut.
- The high attrition rates suffered by Wagner, particularly among prisoners, are considered a strategic victory for Ukraine.
- Jonathan acknowledges that while Ukraine also suffered losses in Bakhmut, they lost a higher proportion of experienced soldiers compared to Russia.
Jonathan concludes that the report demonstrates how Russia's reliance on poorly trained and equipped prisoners ultimately benefited Ukraine, significantly weakening Wagner and possibly contributing to Prigozhin's downfall.
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Russian Propagandists Injured by Landmine in Belgorod
🎦 18:21-19:06⏩
Jonathan reports on an incident caught on camera where three Russian soldiers and a state TV propagandist were injured by a landmine in Belgorod, highlighting the dangers faced by those operating in the region. All four individuals survived, but their injuries varied in severity.
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Ukraine Shoots Down Russian Su-25 in Donetsk
🎦 19:06-19:17⏩
Jonathan reports the successful downing of a Russian Su-25 fighter jet by Ukrainian forces in Donetsk, near Prokhorivka in the Avdiivka direction.
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Russian Fighter Jet Crashes in North Ossetia
🎦 19:17-20:03⏩
Jonathan reports on the crash of another Russian fighter jet, this time a Su-34. The incident occurred in North Ossetia, on the way to Georgia, and was attributed to a technical malfunction. Sadly both crew members perished in the crash.
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Russian Anti-Submarine Ship Catches Fire in Barents Sea
🎦 20:03-20:36⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of a fire breaking out on a Russian large anti-submarine ship, the Admiral Levchenko, in the Barents Sea. The cause of the fire was reportedly an engine malfunction. The ship is believed to have a large crew of several hundred.
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Confirmation that Two Russian Su-57s Were Damaged in Akhtubinsk Strike
🎦 20:37-22:06⏩
Jonathan reports confirmation from "Fighter Bomber", a reliable source on Russian military aircraft, that two Su-57s were indeed damaged in the recent strike on Akhtubinsk. While one aircraft sustained minor damage and will be repaired on-site, the other sustained significant damage, with questions raised about whether it's worthwhile repairing at all. This is a blow to Russia given the small number of these fifth-generation fighter jets it possesses. Further information from "Fighter Bomber" revealed that all three drones involved in the airfield attack successfully reached their targets, highlighting the ineffectiveness of Russian air defences.
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Satellite Imagery Confirms Significant Damage in Crimea
🎦 22:06-23:04⏩
Jonathan discusses satellite imagery analysis which supports claims of significant damage inflicted during a recent Ukrainian strike on Crimea:
- 10-12 ATACM missiles hit their targets
- Two S-300 air defence systems were damaged.
- Four radars were destroyed.
- The Saki airbase was hit by four ATACMS.
- There are reports that all S-300 PMU systems near Dzhankoy were destroyed.
Ben Hodges: Destruction in Crimea is Precursor to its Liberation
🎦 23:04-24:18⏩
Jonathan cites a statement from Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe, who believes that the recent destruction of military targets in Crimea, including the Kerch Strait Bridge, is part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to isolate the peninsula from Russia, paving the way for its eventual liberation.
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Ukrainian Activity in Sea of Azov and Possible Attack on Crimea
🎦 24:18-25:02⏩
Jonathan talks through reports of Ukrainian military activity in the Sea of Azov, including a possible strike on a Russian amphibious landing ship (later denied) and attacks on a tugboat and barge. Although the exact details remain unclear, he highlights the possibility of an impending Ukrainian assault on Crimea, potentially involving both amphibious landings and air assaults. This would require Ukraine first establishing air superiority over the peninsula.
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Russian 41st Motorised Rifle Regiment Decimated Near Vovchansk
🎦 25:02-25:59⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russian 41st Motorised Rifle Regiment has been withdrawn from Ukraine after suffering heavy losses and significant depletion of its combat capability near Vovchansk. The regiment's soldiers reportedly blame their commander, General Lapin, for their defeat, accusing him of incompetence. Jonathan notes that Lapin has a history of military failures, including a previous war, which makes his current predicament unsurprising.
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Assassination of Local Councillor in Occupied Zaporizhia
🎦 26:05-26:39⏩
Jonathan reports on the assassination of Maxim Denchik, a local councillor in Russian-occupied Zaporizhia. Denchik, who was suspended from his role as director for legal support in the city in May pending an investigation, was shot four times as he left his apartment.
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Explosions and Fires in Russia
🎦 26:40-27:08⏩
Jonathan reports on multiple explosions and fires in Russia:
- An explosion occurred at the Palace of Arts in the Russian city of Ivanovo, followed by a major fire.
- Another large fire broke out in the town of Yezovka, 25 kilometers north of Volgograd, on the banks of the Volga River.
Jonathan expresses surprise at the frequency of such incidents in Russia.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Chonhar and Yaroslavl
🎦 27:08-28:15⏩
Jonathan provides an update on Ukrainian strikes, noting:
- Explosions were reported around Chonhar, Crimea, targeting the railway and road bridges that connect the peninsula to mainland Ukraine.
- Drones attacked an oil refinery in Yaroslavl, although the extent of the damage is unknown.
Jonathan acknowledges that information about these strikes is often slow to emerge.
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Airstrike on Belgorod Targets Russian Military Base
🎦 28:15-29:07⏩
Jonathan reports a significant explosion in Belgorod, which appears to have been another Ukrainian airstrike on a Russian military base. He notes that Ukraine has been increasingly targeting military bases, S-400 and S-300 air defence systems, military equipment, and staging points for the Russian attack into Kharkiv. He clarifies that while Ukraine did launch airstrikes inside Russia at the start of the war, this recent attack appears to be the first to receive explicit authorisation.
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Ukraine Strikes Russian Command Post Near Vovchansk, Killing 8 Officers
🎦 29:08-29:25⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent strike thought to have been carried out by Ukraine on a command post near Vovchansk. The attack reportedly killed eight Russian officers who were part of the Vovchansk grouping of military units.
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Russian Missiles and Bombs Malfunction, Hitting Russian Territory 88 Times in 100 Days
🎦 29:25-30:07⏩
Jonathan highlights reports from Russian media outlet Astra, which has been monitoring Russian military failures, revealing that in the past 100 days, 88 Russian aerial bombs have missed their targets and landed within Russia. This, coupled with similar failures of Kalibr missiles, points to potential quality control issues with Russia's arsenal.
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Ukraine's Strategy to Neutralise Russian Airbases Within Range of Ukraine
🎦 30:07-31:50⏩
Jonathan cites analysis by Justin Bronk who believes that Ukraine is pursuing a clear strategy of forcing the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) to either abandon their bases within several hundred miles of Ukraine's borders or dedicate a disproportionate amount of air defence systems to protecting them. This strategy, driven by Ukraine's increasingly potent long-range strike capabilities, including ATACMS with a range exceeding 300 kilometres, presents a significant challenge for Russia. Jonathan draws parallels to the situation when HIMARS, with a range of 80 kilometres, were introduced, forcing Russia to relocate its critical military infrastructure beyond a 100-kilometre radius of the frontlines. The challenge now is even greater, with Russia facing the dilemma of how to protect a vast territory with increasingly limited air defence resources.
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Russia Moves Air Defence Systems From Crimea to Belgorod
🎦 31:50-34:12⏩
Jonathan reports that, according to partisan movement Atesh, Russia is relocating its remaining air defence systems from Crimea to Belgorod, a move that raises concerns about the vulnerability of occupied Crimea to Ukrainian strikes. Russia's air defence capabilities in Crimea have been severely degraded due to high attrition rates. To compensate for the shortage of sophisticated systems like the S-300 and S-400, Russia is deploying ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft cannons mounted on trucks. These systems are considered a poor substitute for the more advanced Gepard system, which offers greater range and effectiveness against both drones and cruise missiles. The relocation of air defence assets from Crimea, coupled with the earlier relocation of the Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, suggests that Russia is shifting its focus away from Crimea and potentially acknowledging its vulnerability.
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Andrew Perpetua: Russia Makes Minimal Gains West of Avdiivka
🎦 34:23-36:17⏩
Jonathan draws attention to observations made by military analyst Andrew Perpetua who notes that Russia has made unexpectedly minimal territorial gains west of Avdiivka, despite previous successes in the area. Perpetua finds this lack of progress surprising, given the speed with which Russia captured the main part of Avdiivka during its counter-attack. Perpetua sees this as indicative of a broader weakness within the Russian military, namely its inability to capitalise on even small victories. This inability to exploit breakthroughs is a recurring theme in Russia's military operations, evident in places like Novomykhailivka, Krasnohorivka, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka, where Russia engages in protracted, attritional battles that result in heavy losses but fail to yield strategically significant gains. Jonathan believes this pattern of grinding battles will inevitably deplete Russia's already strained resources.
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Russian Military Bloggers Express Concerns over Attrition and F-16 Deliveries
🎦 36:17-38:06⏩
Jonathan points to growing anxieties among Russian military bloggers who are increasingly vocal about the unsustainable attrition rates suffered by the Russian military. Their concerns centre around the effectiveness of NATO missile defences, the vulnerability of strategic and tactical links to enemy strikes, and the anticipated arrival of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine. They predict a challenging period for Russian forces in the coming six months as ground operations are hampered by muddy conditions, and Ukraine's air capabilities are bolstered by the arrival of F-16s. The bloggers' warnings highlight the precarious position of the Russian military as it confronts both material losses and the prospect of a more capable Ukrainian adversary.
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Ukraine Forms New Unmanned Systems Forces
🎦 38:06-38:55⏩
Jonathan shares news of Ukraine's establishment of a new military branch dedicated to unmanned systems. This branch will oversee the development and deployment of advanced drone technology, which is increasingly playing a crucial role in modern warfare. The creation of this new force underscores Ukraine's commitment to innovation and adaptation in its ongoing conflict with Russia.
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Russian Propagandist Outlet Rebar Opens Media School in Kyrgyzstan
🎦 38:55-41:06⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over the launch of a media school in Kyrgyzstan by Rebar, a pro-Russian, Kremlin-aligned propaganda outlet. The goal of the school, according to Rebar, is to train a new generation of "opinion leaders" who can shape public discourse in Kyrgyzstan. Jonathan views this initiative as a blatant attempt to manipulate public opinion in a country where, according to Rebar itself, there is "a complete lack of military-political industry expertise as well as a virtual vacuum in the blogosphere and opinion journalism." He sees through Rebar's claims of supporting local journalism, arguing that the real objective is to control the narrative and promote pro-Kremlin perspectives.
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Train Derailment in Russia: Five Tanks Overturned
🎦 41:06-41:29⏩
In a stroke of luck for Ukraine, Jonathan reports on the derailment of a train at the Lushkaya station in Russia, resulting in five tanks overturning. While the cause of the derailment remains unclear, it is a logistical setback for Russia, disrupting the flow of military equipment. Jonathan ends by saying this is good news for Ukraine and it will slow Russia down.
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Wrap up
🎦 41:29-41:32⏩
Jonathan signs off with his signature "Toodlepips!" after thanking viewers for watching.
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