Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"It's the Ukraine War Frontline Update for the 3rd of September 2024...3rd or 4th, depending on where you are in the world."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video – the Ukraine War Frontline Update for 03/09/2024. He explains that he won’t be using the DeepState map as he has not had time to update it, opting instead for his own map for this update. He explains that the yellow lines represent Russian fortifications.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kursk Oblast: Ukrainian Advance Slows
🎦 00:20-01:07⏩
Jonathan begins at the top of the map, describing the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk Oblast as having “slowed down” with minimal territorial gains over the last couple of weeks. He explains that he will be using his own pins for this update as they are more accurate than the DeepState map and will reference the WarMapper and Andrew Perpetua’s maps.
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Kursk Oblast: Comparing Maps - Discrepancies and Observations
🎦 01:07-03:56⏩
Jonathan observes from the WarMapper statistics that the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk Oblast has “stabilised”, comparing the current situation to different periods of the conflict. Comparing his own pins with those of Andrew Perpetua he observes:
- Ukrainian gains around Koronevo although some sources claim they have been pushed back.
- Surat Maps shows a larger area of Ukrainian control but this is likely inaccurate and will likely change to reflect Andrew Perpetua’s assessment which shows a large discrepancy between the two sources.
Jonathan explains that Surat Maps is quick to update in Russia’s favour but much slower when Ukrainians take territory. He highlights two other settlements where there is a difference in opinion between the maps – one where Surat Maps is more accurate, the other (a large difference) where Andrew Perpetua’s assessment is more accurate.
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Kursk Oblast: Ukraine "Plans to Indefinitely Hold Seized Territories"
🎦 03:56-05:53⏩
Jonathan describes a report from the Kyiv Independent citing Zelensky that Ukraine “plans to indefinitely hold the seized territories of Russia’s Kursk Oblast”. He goes on to explain that this is an attempt by Zelensky to force Putin to the negotiating table. Jonathan shares two small Russian gains reported by No Reports over the last four days – north of Koronevo and another unspecified location (likely north of Kursk).
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Kursk Oblast: Russian Looting
🎦 05:53-07:07⏩
Jonathan shares some observations based on reports from No Reports and others regarding the behaviour of Russian Soldiers in Kursk, describing videos of Russian soldiers looting a shop and stealing a car which he describes as “bizarre” given this is Russian territory. He compares this to the behaviour of the IDF (Israeli Defence Force) in Gaza at the start of the conflict, before concluding that the Russian behaviour is “really weird” as they are looting their own country.
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Rebar: Potential Ukrainian Offensive Operations (Kursk, Belgorod, Kharkiv, Bryansk)
🎦 07:07-10:29⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss the activities of Ukrainian forces along the border with Russia citing the pro-Russian source Rebar and their observations on potential courses of action by the Ukrainians. He explains that despite Russian claims, the Ukrainians do not appear to have been successful in their attempts to cross the border in the Belgorod region. Jonathan explains that Rebar believes the Ukrainians are trying to drive Russian forces out of the “sanitary zone” in the Kharkiv region. He lists Vovchansk and Khyberka as two “hot spots” where fighting is ongoing. He goes on to explain that Rebar believes the Bryansk region could also be a potential target given the amount of forest there which would be ideal for “penetrating the border”, highlighting the presence of Ukrainian units in the Chernihiv region. They assess that the Ukrainians are likely to be conducting reconnaissance in the area (using drones) and could be setting ambushes and mining roads and bridges. Rebar concludes (according to Jonathan) that a full-scale invasion of the Bryansk region should not be ruled out, comparing it to the landings at Kinburn Spit and the “creation of the bridgehead in Kryнки”. Jonathan refutes Rebar’s assessment that the Kryнки bridgehead was “suicidal”, pointing out that whilst the Kinburn Spit attacks didn’t go well for the Ukrainians, the bridgehead is a different matter entirely. Jonathan provides three potential attack options for the Ukrainians according to Rebar – an attack north from Chernihiv Oblast, west across the border into Kursk Oblast (where they have already had success) and south from Sumy Oblast into Bryansk. Jonathan finishes by explaining that Rebar believes that “overconfidence” from the Ukrainian side could result in bloody disappointment.
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Poltava: Russian Missile Strike
🎦 10:29-11:35⏩
Jonathan expresses uncertainty about Rebar’s assessment, pointing out that it is not clear how much “spare capacity” the Ukrainians really have. He reminds viewers that Poltava was hit by Russian missiles (Iskander ballistic missiles) earlier today, striking a six-storey communications training building, killing 51 and injuring 280. Jonathan clarifies that whilst there were rumours that the strike may have coincided with a parade, he has seen interviews with soldiers who confirm that this was not the case and that they had just started lessons.
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Kursk Oblast: Leaked FSB Documents
🎦 11:35-16:12⏩
Jonathan circles back to Kursk to share information from YouTuber “Arthur Rahy” about a leak of FSB documents left behind when the Russians retreated from the region. He explains that the documents have been handed over to journalist Dmitry Karpenko who is publishing them in instalments on his Telegram and YouTube channels. Jonathan goes on to explain (citing Arthur Rahy) how the FSB has for a long time, been busy looking for external and internal enemies “to justify their existence” in much the same way as the USSR (and various iterations of the security services) relied on the NKVD and KGB before them. This “atmosphere of paranoia”, Arthur Rahy argues, is the “fundamental driving force” in the FSB and has resulted in Putin making decisions (such as the invasion) based on lies and misinformation. Jonathan highlights the “Sims card” incident from the start of the war as an example of this (where FSB agents were given Sims cards but claimed they were “Sims Games” as evidence of Ukrainian aggression) which he wrote an article about at the time. Jonathan explains that, based on these reports, Putin did not expect Ukraine to resist and was unaware of the true state of the Russian Army, concluding with the observation that this situation calls into question the state of Russia’s Nuclear Forces.
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Northeastern Sector (Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna): Four Day Frontline Overview
🎦 16:12-18:28⏩
Jonathan begins his overview of the rest of the frontline, covering four days’ worth of updates.
- Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna:
- Russian advances according to Surat Maps (but not Andrew Perpetua) in the Sinkivka settlement.
- Russian gains south of Pischane (towards Berestove).
- Ukrainian counterattacks in Tobaiivka.
- Russian gains (confirmed by Surat Maps and Andrew Perpetua) north of Stelmakhivka.
- Jonathan describes Syriac Maps as often being “ahead of the game” but not always accurate. He explains how the Russians tend to attack the same position until it falls, resulting in initial differences of opinion between the various maps that tend to be resolved once photographic/video evidence is available.
Northeastern Sector (Serebriansky Forest Area): Russian Gains
🎦 18:28-21:09⏩
- Serebriansky Forest Area
- Jonathan explains that there have been no changes along the rest of the Northeastern Sector over the last 4 days.
- Syriac Maps reports that the Russians are having some success on the edges of the hilly, mountainous areas around Bilohorivka (south of the Serebriansky Forest) which Jonathan describes as “a real worry”.
- Jonathan provides an in-depth overview of the area using his 3D map. He explains that if the Russians are attacking from the north (which is geographically very difficult due to the river) then they will have to try and cross the Zherebets River, something they will not be able to do with vehicles and equipment.
- If they are attacking from the South, they are going to have to negotiate difficult terrain, crossing a valley and then assaulting uphill.
- Jonathan concludes that whilst the Russians may have had some success in the area, it will have been very costly.
Lyman-Siversk: Four Day Frontline Overview
🎦 21:09-23:25⏩
- Lyman-Siversk:
- Russians have made some gains around Spirne, advancing slowly up the railway line.
- No change from Ivano-Darivka but a big difference between the two mappers
- Andrew Perpetua shows the Russians in control of a larger area north of Rozdolivka, whereas Surat Maps shows them in control of around 35% of the settlement of Pryyutne.
- Jonathan speculates that Surat Maps may have jumped the gun in their assessment.
- Surat Maps (but not Andrew Perpetua) shows further Russian gains in Chasiv Yar. Jonathan explains that Surat Maps are claiming that Russian forces crossed the canal last weekend and captured the first trenches in the western part of Kalinivka and made small advances along Chkalova Street in the Zhavnevyi District.
- Jonathan observes that it is unclear if the Russians have sustained control in Chasiv Yar, describing it as a “grey zone”. He concludes by saying it would be worrying if the Russians do indeed control this area.
Bakhmut: Four Day Frontline Overview
🎦 23:25-28:51⏩
- Bakhmut:
- No change in New York over the last four days
- Not a lot of change in Toretsk which is good news for the Ukrainians.
- Claims that Ukrainian reinforcements have arrived in the area which may have stabilised the frontline. Ukrainian National Guard forces (Karadag group), consisting about 2,000 troops has been deployed.
- Footage has emerged of a repelled Russian attack in Chasiv Yar which was successfully repulsed, resulting in the destruction of 3 Russian MTLBs and 1 BMP. Jonathan speculates that this could be another example of where the Russians may have briefly entered the settlement but don’t have sustained control.
- Reports that the Russians have been ordered to take Prokrosk by 01/10/2024. A Ukrainian Lieutenant with the callsign “Alex” has described the attacks in the area as relentless.
- No change in Andriivka.
- No change according to Andrew Perpetua, but minor changes according to Surat Maps.
- No change for the whole area west of the T0504 highway that goes to Prokrosk.
- Jonathan highlights the most significant Russian gains which have been in the south, moving through Mykhailivka and taking Novohrodivka. He indicates the previous frontline (according to Andrew Perpetua) which shows just how much territory the Russians have taken in the last 4 days.
- He describes the speed of the advance in this area as “relatively easy”.
- Jonathan points out a large discrepancy between the two maps in this area but highlights that Surat Maps already had the Russians in control of more territory, hence the difference.
- He goes on to explain that ISW is reporting that Ukrainian forces have retaken some of the lost ground near Prokrosk, citing geolocation imagery showing Ukrainians regaining positions South West of Novohrodivka.
- Further reports from ISW state that Ukrainian forces have also regained lost ground South East of Prokhorivka (analysts believe this is further evidence of Ukrainian reinforcements in the area)
- The 79th Brigade discovered a Russian Column near Novomayorske.
Donetsk City: Four Day Frontline Overview
🎦 28:51-32:06⏩
- Donetsk City
- No change in Opytne.
- No change in Vesele over the last four days.
- South of Krasnohorivka (towards Donetsk City), a small amount of territory has fallen to the Russians (according to Surat Maps).
- Some small Russian gains south of Marinka (towards Pobieda). Jonathan describes the loss of Pobieda as “sad” and that Nevelske, which was well-fortified and held out for so long also appears to have fallen under Russian control.
- Jonathan observes that Andrew Perpetua has Nevelske in the grey zone.
- North of Novomykhailivka, Ukrainian forces have been pushed back north of Paraskeviivka and Kostyantynivka. Surat Maps claim that Kostyantynivka is under complete Russian Control but Andrew Perpetua only shows half.
- Jonathan states that there has been a lot of footage coming out of the area and that whilst the Russians are being made to pay for every advance, they seem unconcerned by their losses and are pushing forward relentlessly, particularly in the Vodiane and Vuhledar areas. He describes Vuhledar as being “flanked”.
- North East of Vuhledar, Ukrainians are fighting to hold the “mine” (coal mine).
- Russian forces have advanced along the highway according to Surat Maps (Andrew Perpetua less so) and are having some success in the Prechystivka area which is bad news for the Ukrainians.
- Jonathan highlights the amount of territory taken by Russian Forces in four days, pushing considerably west from Pavlivka.
Southern Front: Prechystivka (Russian Offensive Operations)
🎦 32:06-33:12⏩
- Southern Front
- Jonathan reads from a tweet from Surat Maps which reports that the Russians are advancing from two axis to capture Vuhledar. On the first axis, they have entered the “South Donbassian Mine” which is currently contested. On the second, they have advanced North of Novomayorsk, west of Pavlivka reaching the first buildings of Prechystivka.
Sign Off
🎦 33:12-35:02⏩
Jonathan refers viewers to his “ATP Distilled” website where they can find AI generated summaries of all of his videos, highlighting the work of Benny Pie who has created a useful summary of the ISW daily report. Jonathan apologises for being “all over the place”, explaining that he has done a lot of content today and his brain is “mush”. He concludes by saying he will try and provide daily updates now that his boys are back at school but warns he can’t promise anything. He signs off by thanking viewers and saying he’ll speak to them soon.
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