Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"This war is making us do non-standard things, says Beaver, who commands the engineering regiment providing sappers to Ukraine's attack brigades. We don't have air cover or plentiful western equipment, so we risk our people."
Hello Team!
Jonathan had to re-record this 45 minute video after his microphone failed to record the first time. He's gutted about having to do it all over again.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses are lower than usual, likely due to it being Sunday
- 440 liquidated personnel (200 lower than previous week), 7 tanks, 2 armoured personnel vehicles (very low despite news of a Russian attack on Avdiivka), 5 artillery systems, 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, 1 drone, 8 vehicles and fuel tanks, 4 pieces of special equipment
- Figures seem inconsistent with reported events, something is going on
Russian Penal Unit Losses
Another video has emerged from a Russian penal unit, Storm Z, saying they lost 73% of their unit (110 out of 150 men). They have no food, drink or ammunition and feel they've been sent to slaughter. Their relatives confirm this. These videos are becoming commonplace and show the attritional challenge for Russian forces.
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Visually Confirmed Losses
- Oryx figures for visually confirmed losses over the last two days show slightly higher Ukrainian losses (28) compared to Russian (25)
- Russians lost more tanks and IFVs while Ukrainians lost more MRAPs and APCs
- It's almost parity, expected on days when Ukrainians are attacking
Russian Tank Losses
- Graphics show the Russians are losing more older Soviet-era tanks (63-73%) compared to newer variants over the last few months
- Newer T-80 and T-72 variants are being lost in much lower numbers
- This suggests Russia is either not using newer tanks, using them very cautiously, or simply don't have many left and are relying on older models
- There are reports of Russia refurbishing tanks and SPGs from the 1940s, showing their desperation
Russian Equipment Losses
- A Russian Zoopark counter-battery radar, a high-value piece of equipment that can track incoming shells and direct artillery to take out the source within minutes, has been destroyed
- Ukrainians have mounted an ATGM (anti-tank guided missile) on a buggy, allowing them to shoot and scoot - an ingenious adaptation for mobility
Rail Sabotage and Fires in Russia
- Rail sabotage is taking place in the far east of Russia with a relay cabinet being torched, delaying trains
- A significant 3,500 square meter fire occurred at a production storage building in the Kalininsky district of Russia
- Extensive fires like this help cripple Russia's ability to operate and fund its war
Missile Attack and Threats
- Russian air defence claimed to shoot down 2 Ukrainian missiles over Russia's Bryansk region near a nuclear power plant
- In response, Dmitry Medvedev threatened strikes on 3 Eastern European nuclear power facilities if it's shown Ukraine used NATO missiles like Storm Shadow
- However, video evidence shows it was a Russian S-200 missile that came down, not a Storm Shadow
- This suggests Ukraine can now adapt up to 1000 of these older S-200 missiles, which have a 400km range, for ground-to-ground use like the S-300/S-400
- The Kerch Bridge may have been targeted by 2 of these missiles yesterday but were intercepted
Strikes and Shelling
- A large explosion occurred near Melitopol on an occupied village with a Russian troop base in Zarychne
- A Russian missile hit Mykhailivka, more details pending
- A school in Orikhiv where humanitarian UN aid was being handed out was hit by the Russians, killing 3 women and 1 man, injuring others
- Ukraine considers this a war crime
Russian Fortifications
Brady Africk, who has been mapping Russian fortifications, reports:
- As Ukraine's counter-offensive continues, Russia is building additional layers of defences in occupied territory, especially in the south and east
- New fortifications are being built along roads leading into occupied territory between the front line and Mariupol
- Existing fortifications are being expanded to fill gaps in defensive lines
- This will make Ukrainian progress slower but the hope is later defensive lines will be less robust
Kerch Bridge Admission
- Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar has admitted Ukraine blew up the Kerch Bridge road section on Oct 8, 2022
- The road section was subsequently repaired but the rail bridge is still affected
- The bridge may have been targeted again yesterday
- No details were provided on how the attack was carried out
Elon Musk's War Analysis
Jonathan is annoyed by Elon Musk's analysis of the war, feeling every sentence is problematic:
- Musk claims Ukrainian and Russian youth are dying in trenches for almost no territorial gains, but arguably Ukraine has made more gains in a month than Russia in their offensive
- He says whoever goes on the offensive against entrenched positions will lose far more soldiers, but Ukraine claims they are losing at a 1:5.3 ratio to Russia
- Musk says this is why there's been no major offensive, but Ukraine is in phase 0-1 focusing on attrition
- He claims Russia's 4:1 numerical advantage means they would win a war of attrition even with equal casualties, ignoring the reality on the ground
- Musk suggests a failed Ukrainian offensive would allow Russia to capture more territory in a counter-attack, disregarding their performance in the last offensive
Minefield Density
- Footage of a Ukrainian mine flail tank shows the extreme density of mines, with an explosion every metre or so
- An Economist article by Oliver Carroll highlights the dangerous and slow work of Ukrainian sappers in clearing minefields
- Density is around 1,500 mines per square kilometre before factoring in Russian artillery, drones, aviation and electronic warfare
- Sappers are now the #1 target so Ukraine has adapted tactics, sending small groups of 4-5 sappers ahead on foot to avoid detection before infantry follows
- This is a departure from NATO doctrine emphasizing armoured protection but necessary given Ukrainian limitations
- The most dangerous work is done at dawn, probing for mines every 8-10 metres while under drone surveillance and artillery threat
- Sappers face a range of "surprises" including jumping mines, booby traps disguised as cigarette packs or attached to corpses
- The snail's pace means this attrition phase may take months but is necessary before attempting breakthroughs with limited mechanized forces
Frontline Update - Bakhmut
- Ukrainian troops have advanced 2km on the northern flank, reaching the railway station between Klishchiivka and Yahidne
- On the southern flank, Ukraine holds the ridges around Ivanivske and Russian troops are retreating behind waterways north of Andriivka
- Fierce fighting continues in Klishchiivka with partial Ukrainian success towards Yahidne
- Russians are struggling to hold the line at the edge of Klishchiivka
- Ukraine is also pushing from Kurdiumivka in the north, threatening Ozarianivka and Zalizzians'ke
- The Kiev Independent reports Ukrainian advances on the southern flank according to Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar
Frontline Update - Avdiivka and Zaporizhzhia
- In Avdiivka, the Russians made an attack and gained about 1 sq km according to Global War Monitor
- The assault used 21 Russian tanks and fighting vehicles but was repelled by Ukraine's 110th Brigade
- At least 6 IFVs, an MTLB, and a T-72 tank were destroyed in the attack based on video footage - a significant loss for Russia
- In Zaporizhzhia, Russian sources admit Ukrainian artillery has razed parts of their first line of trenches to the ground
- Intense Ukrainian artillery and HIMARS bombardment continues on Russian positions and junctions in occupied settlements
Military Aid
- Two anti-mine ships are in the UK under Ukrainian flags and crews
- The Netherlands will also provide minesweepers to Ukraine, though older vessels
- This will help Ukraine rebuild its largely non-existent navy and clear Black Sea mines
- Ukraine's Minister for Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin, credited with keeping railways running to evacuate refugees, reports massive successes:
- In June, Ukraine produced more mortar and artillery shells than in all of 2022, a major step towards ammunition independence
- Ukraine has also begun building a factory to produce Bayraktar drones in partnership with Turkey, aiming to open in 2025
Analysis of Russian Artillery Challenges
An analysis, to be taken with a pinch of salt, highlights Russia's artillery shell production challenges:
- At peak capacity, Russia can only make 30,000 heavy artillery shells per month from its single factory
- Of 13 million shells at the start of the war, over 10 million have been fired
- The original stockpile was a mix of various calibers, not all heavy artillery
- Many shells produced now misfire or are poor quality, damaging the guns
- Remaining rounds are in Siberia, in poor condition after 30 years of outdoor storage, requiring time-consuming refurbishment
- North Korea, China and Iran have not provided artillery rounds and likely will not, despite some rumors
- African countries have sold rounds to Russia but refuse export permits and Turkey blocks shipment
- Russian 152mm guns have a 25km range while Ukraine's 155mm guns reach 40km
- In the last decade, Russia has only made 12 artillery pieces as it had massive Soviet stockpiles
- Ukraine is receiving 120-200 new artillery guns per month from global partners, far exceeding losses, while Russia struggles with a single plant
Geopolitics - Turkey
- Yesterday, Erdogan positioned Turkey as strongly pro-Ukraine, supporting Ukraine rhetorically and returning Azov commanders
- Today, he called for the EU and US to support restarting Turkey's EU accession process, the likely quid pro quo
- There are unconfirmed reports Turkey may unilaterally use its navy to safeguard Ukrainian grain shipments if Russia doesn't renew the deal expiring July 17
- However, the sourcing is dubious so this claim should be treated cautiously
Geopolitics - Poland, Spies, and Propaganda
- Zelensky visited Poland with President Duda to commemorate victims of the 1943 Volhynia massacre, showing support for a key Ukrainian ally
- Poland's internal security arrested a 15th Russian spy who was surveilling military and infrastructure targets along the coast
- Putin is trying to curry favor with Muslim nations, with a billboard in Lebanon showing him with a Quran
- Zelensky rebuffed Trump's claim he could end the war in 24 hours, saying Biden could end it in 5 minutes at the cost of Ukraine - a rejection of any unfair peace
NAFO and Russian Reactions
- NAFO (North Atlantic Fellas Organization) is a group countering Russian disinformation through memes, fundraising for Ukraine, and "shitposting"
- Their cartoon Shiba Inu dog avatars are a remarkably successful form of information warfare
- At the NATO summit in Vilnius, Estonian PM Kaja Kallas welcomed NAFO, praising their disarming of Russian disinfo through humor and enthusiasm
- This triggered an angry response from Russian spokesperson Zakharova, who called NAFO Nazis and internet riffraff in a long Telegram rant
- NAFO members mocked her "copium", noting Russia's $1.6B propaganda budget was less effective than their free efforts
- Zakharova denied the existence of Russian troll farms, but Prigozhin openly admitted to meddling in US elections before his mutiny
- The episode highlights NAFO's success at frustrating Russian propagandists and the Kremlin's hypocritical stance
Wrap up
Jonathan is angry with the technology after having to re-record the video. He asks viewers to like, subscribe and share. He's going to try to do the frontline video next but really needs a cup of tea first. He also promotes ATP merchandise available in the video description.
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