Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hello Team | 00:00-00:08⏩ |
| 2 | Russian Losses - General Figures | 00:08-00:37⏩,00:59-01:09⏩ |
| 3 | Russian Losses - Andrew Perpetua's List (18th December) | 00:38-00:58⏩,01:10-01:27⏩,03:14-03:33⏩,06:18-06:49⏩ |
| 4 | Ukrainian Losses - Andrew Perpetua's List (18th December) | 01:09-01:10⏩,01:27-01:55⏩,04:15-05:11⏩ |
| 5 | Ukrainian Losses - Andrew Perpetua's List (19th December) | 07:06-08:06⏩ |
| 6 | Russian Losses - Andrew Perpetua's List (19th December) | 08:06-10:29⏩ |
| 7 | Ukrainian Soldier Repels Assault in Pyshchane | 10:31-10:53⏩,11:57-12:03⏩ |
| 8 | Versatility of Drones | 10:53-11:06⏩,11:57-12:03⏩ Return to top⤴️ Jonathan highlights the versatility of drones in modern warfare, as demonstrated by the previous incident. He wonders whether the drones were used for reconnaissance or to attack Russian troops. Jonathan links the video in the description. Return to top⤴️ Russian BTR Runs Over Own Soldiers |
| 10 | Putin Shows Off Signed Flag from 155th Naval Infantry Brigade | 12:04-12:18⏩ |
| 11 | Ukrainian Special Forces Reportedly Kill 12 North Korean Soldiers in Kursk Oblast | 12:18-12:29⏩,12:34-12:49⏩ |
| 12 | North Korean Troops Accompanying Russian Paratroopers in Kursk Oblast | 12:29-12:34⏩,12:49-13:06⏩ |
| 13 | North Korean Troops Making a Difference in Kursk Oblast | 13:06-13:18⏩ |
| 14 | Jonathan's Analysis of North Korean Involvement | 13:18-13:58⏩ Return to top⤴️ Jonathan states that the arrival of North Korean soldiers has been a potential game-changer, primarily due to their numbers. While 12,000 North Korean soldiers alone won't change the game, they could foreshadow a larger deployment of up to 100,000, which would be significant. Jonathan also mentions another trainload of Koksan 1989 self-propelled guns en route to the front lines, potentially indicating a large supply of North Korean equipment. He argues that even if North Korean soldiers and equipment are less capable than their Russian counterparts, their sheer numbers pose a serious threat to Ukraine. Jonathan believes that the North Koreans are responsible for Ukraine losing ground in Kursk and criticises those who dismiss their involvement as irresponsible. He notes that many people are unaware of North Korea's role in the war and questions why it isn't bigger news. Return to top⤴️ AN-72 Military Transport Aircraft Explodes at Ostafyevo Airfield near Moscow |
| 16 | Ukrainian Intelligence Claims Responsibility for AN-72 Explosion | 16:19-16:44⏩ Return to top⤴️ Ukrainian intelligence claimed that a power unit of the Russian AN-72 military transport plane blew up at the airfield. The cause and circumstances of the explosion are unclear, and the Kyiv Independent could not verify the claim. Return to top⤴️ Increase in Sabotage OperationsReturn to top⤴️ Jonathan notes an uptick in sabotage operations, including the recent destruction of fuel tankers by the Russia Free Legion deep inside Russia. He also mentions previous incidents of fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters being set on fire. Jonathan views this as good news for the Ukrainians. Return to top⤴️ Fire at Detention Centre in YakutskReturn to top⤴️ The Kyiv Independent reports that five people were killed and seven injured in a fire at a detention centre in Yakutsk, which houses Russian soldiers who deserted their units during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Jonathan references the board game Risk and places Yakutsk in the centre-east of Russia. Return to top⤴️ Ukrainian Air Defences Shoot Down Drones |
| 20 | Russian Ballistic Missile Attacks | 18:12-18:49⏩,19:06-19:33⏩ Return to top⤴️ Five ISKM or KN-23 ballistic missiles were intercepted, but more were sent. It is unclear how many were sent in total. Monitoring channels reported 12 loud explosions in Kyiv, similar to the North Korean KN-23 ballistic missile. Kryvyi Rih was hit by at least one ballistic missile, injuring at least two people, including a girl and a man fighting for his life in hospital. A residential building was struck, injuring six people, including a 15-year-old girl. Jonathan expresses his disgust at Russia's targeting of civilians. Return to top⤴️ Aftermath of Missile Attacks on KyivReturn to top⤴️ Debris from the missiles fell in three districts of Kyiv, killing one person and injuring several more. Russia reportedly used two types of ballistic missiles. A 15,000 square meter warehouse in the Boryspil district (where the airport is located) caught fire. Jonathan speculates that air defences around Boryspil may have shot down missiles, causing them to hit nearby warehouses. Return to top⤴️ Russia Claims Missile Attack on Kyiv Was RevengeReturn to top⤴️ Tim White reports that Russia claims the attack on Kyiv was revenge for the assassination of its top general in Moscow earlier in the week. Jonathan questions whether the assassination was worth it, given a Ukrainian's claim that the general had no strategic value. Jonathan is unsure of the strategic, operational, or military effect the death of a single person would have in this instance. Return to top⤴️ Damage to Toronto Business Centre and St. Nicholas Church in KyivReturn to top⤴️ Ukraine claims all five Iskanders fired by the Russians were shot down. The Toronto Business Centre in the Holosiivskyi District of central Kyiv bore the brunt of the damage. The attack occurred at 7 am, at the start of rush hour, with only one person dying thanks to air defence. The St. Nicholas Cathedral, the second-largest Catholic church in Kyiv, was also damaged. Jonathan notes the blast wave from even powerful missiles being shot down can cause significant damage. He mentions a car that ended up sideways on top of a wall due to the blast. Jonathan expresses concern about the risks involved in delivering vehicles to Ukraine in January. He highlights the resilience of the Ukrainian people, referencing a video of someone calling their mother to report the damage while drinking a glass of wine. Jonathan believes the damage to the church was unintentional but notes that this is what happens when missiles are shot down over a city. He provides some historical context for the church, which was built between 1899 and 1909. Return to top⤴️ Explosions in Volgograd, RussiaReturn to top⤴️ Explosions were heard in Volgograd, Russia, with the sound of drones preceding the explosions. CCTV footage captured the incident. Return to top⤴️ Explosions Near Northern Fleet Base in RussiaReturn to top⤴️ Russian media reported two explosions near the Northern Fleet Base in Severomorsk. The Berens Observer geolocated the explosion and noted that the Severomorsk-1 military airfield is 13km away, where fighters, bombers, and a squadron of Ka-27 helicopters are based. An open weapons depot is located 11km away, and several installations with mobile anti-aircraft missiles and antennas for electronic warfare are to the northwest of Severomorsk-1. Jonathan finds this interesting due to the long distance involved and speculates whether it was sabotage or a long-distance strike. Return to top⤴️ Storm Shadow Missile Strike on Kamensky Chemical PlantReturn to top⤴️ A Storm Shadow missile strike on December 18th critically damaged two buildings at the Kamensky chemical plant in Russia. The function of the buildings remains unclear. Other buildings were protected with nets, likely against drone strikes. Jonathan notes that Storm Shadows have been used elsewhere in Russia over the last week and speculates that the targets must have been significant. Return to top⤴️ Novoshakhtinsk Oil Plant Shut Down After AttackReturn to top⤴️ The Novoshakhtinsk oil plant in the Rostov region of Russia, which was struck a couple of days ago, has been completely shut down. This is good news for Ukraine, as much of the invaders' fuel comes from this plant. Return to top⤴️ Russian Attempts to Cross Dnipro River in Kherson Region |
"But when you've got a huge potential, potentially a huge supply of them, they can be not as good. But, you know, a Ukrainian soldier fights one good soldier or two bad soldiers. And it's two sides of the square. The same with the self-propelled guns. Okay, they don't fire as many rounds per minute. But when you've got two of them, when you had only previously one, then you're in a bit more trouble."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan apologises for the late posting of the video, due to a poor night's sleep. He explains that he was worrying about organising convoys to Ukraine and mentions some incredible figures for Russian losses. He includes his usual caveats about the accuracy of the figures before moving on to the statistics.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses - General Figures
🎦 00:08-00:37⏩,00:59-01:09⏩
Jonathan runs through the headline figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence for Russian losses for the previous day, referencing the daily averages from Dell's statistics spreadsheet.
- 1,130 Russian troops were eliminated.
- 8 tanks were lost (just below the daily average).
- 24 armoured personnel vehicles were lost (above the daily average).
- 42 artillery systems were lost (double the daily average).
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system was lost.
- 115 vehicles and fuel tanks were lost (an incredibly high figure, almost a record).
- 6 pieces of special equipment were lost (above the daily average).
Russian Losses - Andrew Perpetua's List (18th December)
🎦 00:38-00:58⏩,01:10-01:27⏩,03:14-03:33⏩,06:18-06:49⏩
Jonathan analyses the first of two loss lists from Andrew Perpetua (credit). The overall losses are 4:1 Russian to Ukrainian, with combat asset losses at 2:1. Most Russian losses are from civilian vehicles and ATVs, which are now considered combat assets due to their use in assaults. Ukrainian losses include four artillery pieces (an old D20, M109, M119), four infantry fighting vehicles (including one destroyed Bradley and a captured BMP-2), two M113 APCs, and six Western-provided MRAPs. Russian losses include a significant number of civilian vehicles, motorcycles, quads, and golf buggies. Around a half dozen artillery pieces were lost, along with a half dozen tanks (mostly T-80 BVMs), almost 10 infantry fighting vehicles (mainly BMP-1s and 2s), and four AFVs and APCs. Jonathan notes that a high proportion of Russian equipment losses are irretrievable. Andrew Perpetua recorded 184 confirmed Russian personnel killed, which is a very high number, averaging almost 100 per day over the last 117 days.
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Ukrainian Losses - Andrew Perpetua's List (18th December)
🎦 01:09-01:10⏩,01:27-01:55⏩,04:15-05:11⏩
Ukrainian losses include four artillery pieces (an old D20, M109, M119, nothing too significant and most of them damaged), four infantry fighting vehicles (including one destroyed Bradley and a captured BMP-2), two M113 APCs, six Western-provided MRAPs, and infantry mobility vehicles (a Western-provided Senator and a Humvee, abandoned or destroyed). There were also a couple of trucks and some civilian vehicles lost.
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Ukrainian Losses - Andrew Perpetua's List (19th December)
🎦 07:06-08:06⏩
Jonathan analyses the second loss list from Andrew Perpetua for the 19th of December. The list is shorter, with a 2:1 Russian to Ukrainian loss ratio. Combat asset losses are about 1.5:1. Ukrainian losses include a T-64 tank destroyed, five Western-provided APCs (two abandoned and destroyed), a captured Kirpi (Turkish-provided MRAP), a destroyed Bushmaster (Australian-provided), a Kozak 7 (Ukrainian), a couple of infantry mobility vehicles, an ATV, and some civilian vehicles. Jonathan highlights that almost all Ukrainian vehicle losses are Western-provided or their own.
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Russian Losses - Andrew Perpetua's List (19th December)
🎦 08:06-10:29⏩
Russian losses include a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system damaged, a couple of artillery pieces, around 10 tanks (80% destroyed and abandoned, with half being "track garden sheds"), five infantry fighting vehicles (mostly BMPs and BTRs, almost all destroyed), a single MRAP (a previously captured Kozak 7), a large number of Desert Cross 1000-3 golf buggies, and a significant number of civilian vehicles. Jonathan notes that the use of tanks as APCs suggests the Russians are facing an equipment dilemma, possibly due to an inability to repair tanks, a lack of tank ammunition, or a shortage of barrels.
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Ukrainian Soldier Repels Assault in Pyshchane
🎦 10:31-10:53⏩,11:57-12:03⏩
A Ukrainian soldier, with the support of drones, single-handedly repelled an assault and eliminated six enemy soldiers using his personal weapon in the village of Pyshchane, Kharkiv region. This area is a salient that has reached the Oskil River, about halfway down the northeastern axis.
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Versatility of Drones
10:53-11:06⏩,11:57-12:03⏩
Return to top⤴️Jonathan highlights the versatility of drones in modern warfare, as demonstrated by the previous incident. He wonders whether the drones were used for reconnaissance or to attack Russian troops. Jonathan links the video in the description.
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Russian BTR Runs Over Own Soldiers
🎦 11:16-11:56⏩
Jonathan mentions a video showing a Russian BTR running over two of its own soldiers. He notes that this used to be a more common occurrence and suggests it likely happens due to limited vision and the chaos of war. Jonathan links the video in the description.
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Putin Shows Off Signed Flag from 155th Naval Infantry Brigade
🎦 12:04-12:18⏩
Jonathan discusses a video where Putin references and shows off a signed flag from the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade. Erland from Turchini comments that most of those who signed the flag are likely dead, as the brigade has been repeatedly wiped out and is currently being slaughtered in Kursk.
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Ukrainian Special Forces Reportedly Kill 12 North Korean Soldiers in Kursk Oblast
🎦 12:18-12:29⏩,12:34-12:49⏩
The Kyiv Independent reports that Ukrainian special forces killed 12 North Korean soldiers and injured 20 others in an operation in Russia's Kursk Oblast, preventing their advance. Jonathan takes a tea break.
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North Korean Troops Accompanying Russian Paratroopers in Kursk Oblast
🎦 12:29-12:34⏩,12:49-13:06⏩
According to a senior Ukrainian official familiar with the intelligence, each North Korean platoon accompanies a larger company of Russian paratroopers to reclaim Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast.
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North Korean Troops Making a Difference in Kursk Oblast
🎦 13:06-13:18⏩
The Kyiv Independent reports that North Korean troops have helped Moscow slowly gain ground in a partially Ukrainian-occupied region in southwest Russia after a few days of assault operations.
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Jonathan's Analysis of North Korean Involvement
13:18-13:58⏩
Return to top⤴️Jonathan states that the arrival of North Korean soldiers has been a potential game-changer, primarily due to their numbers. While 12,000 North Korean soldiers alone won't change the game, they could foreshadow a larger deployment of up to 100,000, which would be significant. Jonathan also mentions another trainload of Koksan 1989 self-propelled guns en route to the front lines, potentially indicating a large supply of North Korean equipment. He argues that even if North Korean soldiers and equipment are less capable than their Russian counterparts, their sheer numbers pose a serious threat to Ukraine. Jonathan believes that the North Koreans are responsible for Ukraine losing ground in Kursk and criticises those who dismiss their involvement as irresponsible. He notes that many people are unaware of North Korea's role in the war and questions why it isn't bigger news.
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AN-72 Military Transport Aircraft Explodes at Ostafyevo Airfield near Moscow
🎦 15:59-16:19⏩
An AN-72 military transport aircraft exploded at Ostafyevo Airfield near Moscow on December 12th. The estimated cost of an AN-72 is about $4.5 million. The explosion was caught on video.
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Ukrainian Intelligence Claims Responsibility for AN-72 Explosion
16:19-16:44⏩
Return to top⤴️Ukrainian intelligence claimed that a power unit of the Russian AN-72 military transport plane blew up at the airfield. The cause and circumstances of the explosion are unclear, and the Kyiv Independent could not verify the claim.
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Increase in Sabotage Operations
16:44-17:21⏩
Return to top⤴️Jonathan notes an uptick in sabotage operations, including the recent destruction of fuel tankers by the Russia Free Legion deep inside Russia. He also mentions previous incidents of fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters being set on fire. Jonathan views this as good news for the Ukrainians.
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Fire at Detention Centre in Yakutsk
17:21-17:59⏩
Return to top⤴️The Kyiv Independent reports that five people were killed and seven injured in a fire at a detention centre in Yakutsk, which houses Russian soldiers who deserted their units during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Jonathan references the board game Risk and places Yakutsk in the centre-east of Russia.
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Ukrainian Air Defences Shoot Down Drones
🎦 17:59-18:12⏩
Ukrainian air defences shot down 40 out of 65 drones, with another 20 taken down by electronic warfare. Five drones got through, which Jonathan considers a relatively high number. Kyiv was the main target, although a couple of missiles hit Kryvyi Rih.
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Russian Ballistic Missile Attacks
18:12-18:49⏩,19:06-19:33⏩
Return to top⤴️Five ISKM or KN-23 ballistic missiles were intercepted, but more were sent. It is unclear how many were sent in total. Monitoring channels reported 12 loud explosions in Kyiv, similar to the North Korean KN-23 ballistic missile. Kryvyi Rih was hit by at least one ballistic missile, injuring at least two people, including a girl and a man fighting for his life in hospital. A residential building was struck, injuring six people, including a 15-year-old girl. Jonathan expresses his disgust at Russia's targeting of civilians.
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Aftermath of Missile Attacks on Kyiv
18:49-19:05⏩,19:33-21:16⏩,21:21-21:57⏩
Return to top⤴️Debris from the missiles fell in three districts of Kyiv, killing one person and injuring several more. Russia reportedly used two types of ballistic missiles. A 15,000 square meter warehouse in the Boryspil district (where the airport is located) caught fire. Jonathan speculates that air defences around Boryspil may have shot down missiles, causing them to hit nearby warehouses.
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Russia Claims Missile Attack on Kyiv Was Revenge
21:58-22:17⏩,22:28-22:51⏩,23:13-23:16⏩
Return to top⤴️Tim White reports that Russia claims the attack on Kyiv was revenge for the assassination of its top general in Moscow earlier in the week. Jonathan questions whether the assassination was worth it, given a Ukrainian's claim that the general had no strategic value. Jonathan is unsure of the strategic, operational, or military effect the death of a single person would have in this instance.
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Damage to Toronto Business Centre and St. Nicholas Church in Kyiv
22:17-22:27⏩,22:51-23:12⏩,23:16-24:54⏩,25:13-25:51⏩
Return to top⤴️Ukraine claims all five Iskanders fired by the Russians were shot down. The Toronto Business Centre in the Holosiivskyi District of central Kyiv bore the brunt of the damage. The attack occurred at 7 am, at the start of rush hour, with only one person dying thanks to air defence. The St. Nicholas Cathedral, the second-largest Catholic church in Kyiv, was also damaged. Jonathan notes the blast wave from even powerful missiles being shot down can cause significant damage. He mentions a car that ended up sideways on top of a wall due to the blast. Jonathan expresses concern about the risks involved in delivering vehicles to Ukraine in January. He highlights the resilience of the Ukrainian people, referencing a video of someone calling their mother to report the damage while drinking a glass of wine. Jonathan believes the damage to the church was unintentional but notes that this is what happens when missiles are shot down over a city. He provides some historical context for the church, which was built between 1899 and 1909.
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Explosions in Volgograd, Russia
25:52-26:00⏩
Return to top⤴️Explosions were heard in Volgograd, Russia, with the sound of drones preceding the explosions. CCTV footage captured the incident.
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Explosions Near Northern Fleet Base in Russia
26:01-27:05⏩
Return to top⤴️Russian media reported two explosions near the Northern Fleet Base in Severomorsk. The Berens Observer geolocated the explosion and noted that the Severomorsk-1 military airfield is 13km away, where fighters, bombers, and a squadron of Ka-27 helicopters are based. An open weapons depot is located 11km away, and several installations with mobile anti-aircraft missiles and antennas for electronic warfare are to the northwest of Severomorsk-1. Jonathan finds this interesting due to the long distance involved and speculates whether it was sabotage or a long-distance strike.
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Storm Shadow Missile Strike on Kamensky Chemical Plant
27:06-27:54⏩
Return to top⤴️A Storm Shadow missile strike on December 18th critically damaged two buildings at the Kamensky chemical plant in Russia. The function of the buildings remains unclear. Other buildings were protected with nets, likely against drone strikes. Jonathan notes that Storm Shadows have been used elsewhere in Russia over the last week and speculates that the targets must have been significant.
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Novoshakhtinsk Oil Plant Shut Down After Attack
27:54-28:24⏩
Return to top⤴️The Novoshakhtinsk oil plant in the Rostov region of Russia, which was struck a couple of days ago, has been completely shut down. This is good news for Ukraine, as much of the invaders' fuel comes from this plant.
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Russian Attempts to Cross Dnipro River in Kherson Region
🎦 28:25-28:54⏩
Under the cover of artillery, groups of Russians tried to break through to the Antonivsky Bridge in the Kherson region at night but failed. The AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) destroyed the Russian stormtroopers. Jonathan suggests this might be preparation for a more massive offensive and operation to cross the Dnipro River, which he finds fascinating but potentially bad news for the Ukrainians, as it keeps them stretched.
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Kherson Attacked
28:54-29:09⏩
Return to top⤴️Ukraine reports that invaders tried to cross the Dnipro River under the cover of a large rocket barrage into Kherson city. Two civilians were killed and at least 10 injured. Jonathan comments on the terrible conditions in Kherson due to constant Russian attacks.
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Mick Ryan on Potential Large-Scale Russian Attack on Kherson
29:14-29:37⏩
Return to top⤴️Mick Ryan (credit) believes the Russians have begun the initial phase of a large-scale attack on Kherson. He had previously discussed the potential for such an operation and the challenges of river crossing operations.
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Jonathan's Thoughts on Russian Capacity
29:38-30:27⏩
Return to top⤴️Jonathan wonders if the Russians have more capacity than originally thought, given their potential large-scale attack on Kherson. He had previously speculated that they were close to culmination but now considers that the North Koreans may have helped them maintain pressure. He also questions whether they are recruiting more troops than they are losing, enabling them to conduct larger maneuvers. Jonathan notes that even poorly trained or equipped troops require the Ukrainians to defend against them, and the Ukrainians are struggling for defenders.
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Reported Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops in Ospanivka
30:28-31:08⏩
Return to top⤴️Tim White reports that many Ukrainian troops were reportedly captured when they were surrounded in Hanivka. Deep State has reported a similar encirclement in Ospanivka, another village along the river where the Russians are advancing. Jonathan previously expressed concern about Ukrainian troops being captured in Hanivka.
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Ukrainian Commander Denies Disaster in Ospanivka
31:08-31:20⏩
Return to top⤴️The local Ukrainian commander denies a disaster in Ospanivka, stating that the withdrawal was completed in time. There has been criticism of Ukrainian activity in the area.
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Reported Ukrainian Counterattack Near Kamyanske
31:20-32:36⏩
Return to top⤴️The Russians report a successful counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Kamyanske, located on the edge of the Zaporizhzhia Reservoir. This follows a Russian raid across the river estuary a month or so ago, where they briefly captured a small area before being pushed back by a Ukrainian counterattack. The Russians mentioned 50 soldiers involved in the operation, but the previous day, they had sounded an alarm about a breakthrough attempt. Jonathan is unsure if the Ukrainians are mounting a localised counterattack.
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Large Russian Cyber Attack on Ukrainian State Registries
32:37-33:15⏩
Return to top⤴️Ukrainian state registries were subjected to the largest Russian cyber attack in recent months. The Kyiv Independent reports that several government services were targeted, including state registers and the Justice Ministry. The estimated time for restoration is up to two weeks.
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Possible Correlation Between Cyber Attacks and Missile Attacks
33:16-33:46⏩
Return to top⤴️Jonathan mentions talk of hacking attacks often preceding big waves of missiles, particularly targeting energy infrastructure. He wonders if there will be a big wave of Russian attacks or if the missile attacks the previous night were part of that pattern. He notes a possible correlation between cyber attacks and subsequent missile attacks.
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Fish in Anti-Theft Nets in Russian Shops
33:47-33:58⏩
Return to top⤴️Due to a sharp increase in prices for trout and pink salmon, fish have begun to be hidden in anti-theft nets in Russian shops. Jonathan sees this as an indication of the state of the Russian economy.
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Russian Central Bank Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
33:58-34:18⏩
Return to top⤴️In a major financial surprise, the Russian central bank left interest rates unchanged at 21%, despite expectations of a rise to at least 23%. This follows major criticism of the bank chief, Nabiullina, by senior Duma members.
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Jonathan's Theories on Unchanged Interest Rates
34:19-34:54⏩,35:31-36:07⏩
Return to top⤴️Jonathan presents two theories for the unchanged interest rates: 1) Nabiullina may have yielded to criticism from Russian Duma representatives, which could be unwise given rising inflation; 2) It could be a way for Putin to communicate to Trump or the world that Russia is unwilling to compromise, suggesting their economy is doing okay despite challenges. Tim White suggests this means inflation will likely spiral upwards even quicker, and the ruble may lose more value, especially if oil prices remain low. Jonathan believes the decision might be more about signaling ahead of potential negotiations with Trump, rather than a reflection of the actual state of the Russian economy.
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Washington Post Reports Trump and Putin to Meet in 2025
34:54-35:18⏩,35:31-36:07⏩
Return to top⤴️According to the Washington Post, Trump and Putin are to meet in 2025. The Kremlin is reportedly not in the mood for compromise because the Russian armed forces are constantly advancing, and no one is predicting an economic collapse. Jonathan reiterates his second theory regarding Russia's posturing on interest rates being a negotiation tactic. He draws a parallel with Ukraine, saying they should be given everything they need to negotiate from a position of relative strength.
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Christmas Truck Fundraiser Update
36:20-37:24⏩,37:38-37:47⏩
Return to top⤴️Jonathan provides an update on the Christmas truck fundraiser through Cars for Ukraine. The total has reached £33,000, exceeding the initial goal. Jonathan expresses his amazement at the generosity and mentions that the goal has been raised as a result. He also mentions his own donations to the cause.
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Logistics and Planning for Truck Delivery to Ukraine
37:24-37:38⏩,37:47-38:57⏩
Return to top⤴️Jonathan discusses the logistics and planning involved in getting the trucks to Ukraine, mentioning costs such as fuel, accommodation, insurance, and channel crossing. He explains that these were some of the things he was worrying about during the night. He also mentions potential challenges like block posts and the need to avoid front lines. Jonathan emphasises that this is not a holiday but that he wants to report on the effects of the war and visit significant places like Bucha. He stresses the need for careful planning and safety considerations. Jonathan expresses his gratitude for the donations, saying it warms the cockles of his heart.
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Shout Out to Matt Bishop and NAFO Supporters
38:57-40:06⏩
Return to top⤴️Jonathan gives a shout-out to Matt Bishop, a huge supporter of NAFO in Australia, who has a Ukrainian wife and had to leave Kharkiv at the beginning of the war. He shows a picture of Matt with his NAFO patches and thanks him for his support. Jonathan also thanks everyone who has donated to the fundraiser.
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Wrap up
40:07-40:29⏩
Return to top⤴️Jonathan encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video. He sets a goal of reaching 50,139 subscribers by January 2nd. He also mentions an upcoming live stream with Jonathan Fink, the final one in their weekly series related to the fundraising campaign.
Return to top⤴️
