Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"I really wish I'd, you know, I've got qualifications from three different universities myself, you know. But I think the one I've always wanted, the one I think's missing from my cv is the Putin special forces university...I just I want to be able to leopard crawl under some barbed wire and then and then get a university degree as a result of that."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War news update, the first part for April 29, 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report on Russian Losses
🎦 00:10-02:35⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report of Russian losses, noting a near-record high of 1,320 personnel lost, likely due to successful strikes on troop accumulations and ongoing heavy fighting in various areas. He also analyzes the reported losses of military equipment, highlighting a significant number of artillery systems destroyed. He questions why there is limited visual confirmation of artillery losses compared to other equipment like tanks and APVs.
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Andrew Perpetua's Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Losses (April 27th)
🎦 02:36-05:12⏩
Jonathan examines Andrew Perpetua's data, showcasing a favorable loss ratio for Ukrainians, approximately 4:1 for April 27th. He breaks down the losses for each side, pointing out a high-value Russian 48YA6K1 radar system destroyed. He observes the Ukrainians' minimal losses, mostly consisting of older equipment and support vehicles. Conversely, the Russians suffer significant losses, including tanks, IFVs, and a large quantity of MTLBs.
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Andrew Perpetua's Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Losses (April 28th)
🎦 05:26-07:30⏩
Jonathan continues with Perpetua's data for April 28th, showing a consistent 3:1 loss ratio favoring Ukraine. He analyzes the equipment losses, noting a high-value Russian Repenik radar system destroyed by a drone. He highlights the significant proportion of destroyed Russian equipment compared to damaged ones, suggesting the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes. He observes increased use of Warmate loitering munitions, possibly of Polish origin.
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Mediazona and BBC Russia Report on Russian Casualties
🎦 07:30-11:52⏩
Jonathan discusses Mediazona and BBC Russia's confirmed count of over 51,600 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine, emphasizing this is a minimum figure based on strict verification criteria. He highlights the potential for the actual number to be significantly higher when considering wounded soldiers and a typical casualty ratio. He cites an example of a mobilized platoon from Bashkortostan with a 90% fatality rate. He also references data from Oryx, showing a disproportionately high number of Russian vehicle losses in the Avdiivka region.
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Ukraine's Innovative Use of FPV Drones
🎦 11:52-12:55⏩
Jonathan reports on the Ukrainian tactic of landing FPV drones armed with 82mm mortar shells instead of directly crashing them into targets. This method allows for remote detonation, maximizing damage by choosing the most opportune moment.
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Ukrainian Airstrikes on Russian Positions in the Prokofsky Region
🎦 12:55-13:43⏩
Jonathan discusses footage of Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian positions in the Prokofsky region. He speculates that JDAMs are being used, potentially contributing to the high number of Russian personnel losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
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Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian Repenik Anti-Drone System
🎦 13:43-14:14⏩
Jonathan highlights footage of a Ukrainian drone strike that successfully destroyed a Russian Repenik anti-drone electronic warfare system, a relatively new piece of equipment introduced in 2022.
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Russian Lancet Drone Strike on a Ukrainian Multiple Launch Rocket System
🎦 14:14-14:41⏩
Jonathan reviews footage of a Russian Lancet loitering munition strike targeting what's claimed to be a Ukrainian HIMARS multiple launch rocket system (MLRS). He acknowledges uncertainty surrounding the target, mentioning the possibility of it being a different MLRS or a Romanian APR40.
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Ukrainian Military Intelligence Reports Destruction of Two Russian Locomotives
🎦 14:41-16:06⏩
Jonathan addresses Ukrainian military intelligence reports on the destruction of two Russian diesel locomotives. He revisits the debate on targeting Russian railway infrastructure, suggesting locomotives as potentially valuable targets. While acknowledging Russia's extensive railway network and potential reserves, he emphasizes the disruption such attacks could cause.
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Overnight Russian Strikes
🎦 16:06-16:39⏩
Jonathan, citing Tim White, reports on a relatively quiet night regarding distance strikes, with most Russian fire concentrated in the Zaporizhzhia region, causing minimal casualties. He notes no reports of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries or military bases.
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Trench Warfare, Turtle Tanks, and Propeller Planes
🎦 16:39-18:04⏩
Jonathan, referencing David Axe's article in Forbes, discusses the resurgence of World War I-era tactics, such as trench warfare, turtle tanks, and the use of Maxim machine guns. He highlights a notable example of a Ukrainian gunner in a propeller plane shooting down a Russian drone, a tactic advocated by Andrea Perpetua. He explains the challenges jets face when engaging drones and the potential effectiveness of this approach against slow-flying drones like the Orlan-10 and Orlan-30.
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Confirmation of Ukrainian Drone Strike on Kurgan Oil Depot
🎦 18:05-18:24⏩
Jonathan, again citing Tim White, reveals that some Russian media outlets are confirming Ukrainian drone strikes on an oil depot in the Kurgan region. He highlights the initial denials by Russian authorities and the eventual confirmation, noting the destruction of a 700 cubic meter tank.
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Further Details on the Ukrainian Drone Attack on the Russian Airfield
🎦 18:25-20:13⏩
Jonathan provides further details on the Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian airfield, which occurred two nights prior. He analyzes imagery showing substantial damage, including the destruction of a warehouse containing UPK-N kits used to convert dumb bombs into guided munitions. He cites Euromodem Press's report on the incident, suggesting the attack aimed to degrade Russia's capacity for precision strikes. He notes the airfield's significance as a training facility for Russian and Iranian pilots. He also mentions the disruption of production at an oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai due to the attack.
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Leak of KGB Informant Details
🎦 20:13-21:41⏩
Jonathan discusses a leak of KGB informant details, with 40,000 contact forms from the Belarus KGB website hacked and leaked. He shares excerpts from the leaked forms, including an offer of cooperation from a foreign citizen concerned about sharing information with the FSB. He finds it interesting how this leak exposes those who supported opposition figures like Babaryka and Tsikhanouskaya while fearing the KGB. He also mentions a leak of potential military secrets regarding new rifle technology and tank modernization.
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Ramzan Kadyrov Appoints Son to Lead Russian Special Forces University
🎦 21:41-23:52⏩
Jonathan sarcastically discusses Ramzan Kadyrov's appointment of his 16-year-old son, Adam, as curator of the Russian Special Forces University. He humorously reflects on his academic qualifications, jokingly wishing for a degree from the "Putin Special Forces University". He recounts Adam Kadyrov's previous controversial actions, including the assault of an individual accused of burning the Quran and his subsequent recognition as a "Hero of the Chechen Republic." Jonathan mocks this award, referencing his self-proclaimed titles of "Legend of the Universe" and "Legend of the Multiverse."
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Ukrainian Air Force's Strategy for Protecting F-16s
🎦 23:52-25:45⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the Ukrainian Air Force's plans for protecting their future F-16 fighter jets. He expresses his opinion that the Ukrainian military should consider basing their F-16s in allied countries like Poland or Romania, utilizing Ukrainian airfields only for brief missions. This would minimize the risk of Russian strikes on the valuable aircraft. He acknowledges that the Ukrainian Air Force is exploring options for dispersing and concealing the F-16s to enhance their survivability.
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Upcoming Live Chat with Colby Badhwar on US Aid to Ukraine
🎦 25:45-26:07⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by promoting his upcoming live chat with Colby Badhwar, where they will discuss US aid to Ukraine, focusing on topics like ATACMS missiles, Patriot systems, and the quantity and types of aid provided.
Wrap up
🎦 26:07-26:07⏩
Jonathan signs off, encouraging viewers to join the live chat and thanking them for watching.
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