Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231110a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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"Those who argue that Ukraine should negotiate with Russia now are either uninformed or misled or they side with Russia and want Putin to take a pause before an even larger aggression. We should not and will not fall into this trap."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the first part of the Ukraine War News Update for November 10th, 2023. He will start with the Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 800 Russian troops lost, a large number in the upper range seen since the counter-offensive began
- Equipment losses are lower, possibly due to weather: 1 tank, 3 APVs, 14 artillery systems
- Russians are taking heavy infantry losses in places like Avdiivka, possibly losing 500 people a day
- 23 vehicles and fuel tanks lost, representing hits on Russian logistics
Equipment Losses
- Andrew Perpetua's list shows a 3:1 loss ratio of Russian to Ukrainian equipment
- Ukrainian losses include some artillery pieces, older IFVs
- Russian losses include 2 electronic warfare systems (possibly valued at $200M), tanks, IFVs, trucks
- Amount of destroyed Russian equipment videos is "absolutely insane" according to a source, around 100 per day
Overnight Strikes & Crimea
- 5 out of 6 Shahed drones and 1 Kh-59 missile shot down overnight. 1 Kh-31 launched with unknown consequences
- GUR (Ukrainian intelligence) hit 2 Russian Serna-class landing craft in Chornomorsk, Crimea
- These can carry 45 tons of cargo, 92 troops, armored vehicles, Tor-M2 air defense
- Explosions also reported in Sevastopol. More "surprises" planned by Ukraine in Crimea
Other News
- First underground school being built in Kharkiv region village of Korotich
- Will have several rooms, sanitation, power and withstand direct hits from S-300 missiles
- Czech President says Ukraine lacks military superiority and time favors Russia, but West must keep supporting
- Russia claims readiness for talks, but has violated many past ceasefires and agreements
- Old video of BMP-1 amphibious IFV crossing river, Jonathan skeptical of being inside one
Wrap Up
Jonathan appreciates all the support and ways to contribute to the channel. He will have more updates coming soon.
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