Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"There's this claim now, the government is now working with more than 80 Ukraine-based drone manufacturers. So that's 80 manufacturers in Ukraine. Ukraine's defense minister, Reznikov, told Reuters, he said Kyiv needs hundreds of thousands of drones, many of which is looking to source from rapidly expanding domestic industry."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is recording this news update early on a Sunday morning before traveling. He notes it is raining heavily where he is on the south coast of the UK.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses and Ukrainian Artillery
The latest Ukrainian figures show 660 Russian personnel were "liquidated" yesterday, which is high but lower than previous days this week. However, equipment losses were significant, with 15 tanks, 15 armored vehicles, 8 artillery systems, and other equipment destroyed. This aligns with reports that Ukrainian artillery, especially counter-battery fire, has been very effective recently. It is becoming increasingly dangerous for Russian artillery crews.
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Russian Soldiers' Video Appeal
A video has emerged of mobilized Russian soldiers, with previous military experience, claiming their commanders used blocking units to prevent retreat during an assault on Avdiivka. The soldiers say they face shooting from their own side if they retreat, the enemy if they advance, and aerial bombardment. Similar situations are reported to be happening in other Russian units but without public video appeals being made. This is generating anger towards commanders among pro-war Russian military bloggers.
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HIMARS Strike in Svatove
Surveillance camera footage shows two HIMARS missiles striking a larger compound used by Russians as a command post in occupied Svatove. The video, which has been geolocated, demonstrates the precision and destructive power of these weapons.
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Situation Report
Ukraine's general staff reports repelling 50 attacks yesterday, a lower number than previously claimed. The enemy is concentrating offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka areas. This reduced attack rate potentially reflects assessments that Russia's offensive is culminating.
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Russian Airstrike on Bilipilya
Further details have emerged on the Russian aerial bombardment of Bilipilya in the Sumy region. Surveillance camera footage of the strikes has been released. According to local residents, a week prior a small Russian unit with a tank crossed the border, attacked, and took prisoners who provided intelligence on military targets in the town. On the night of March 24th, the airstrike came in three waves, hitting military targets with precision-guided munitions and modified FAB bombs.
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Destruction of Ukrainian Cultural Heritage
Russian forces have damaged over 550 sites important to Ukraine's cultural identity and looted thousands of artifacts from museums, which constitute war crimes. In one example, occupiers stole an estimated 15,000 paintings from the Kherson Art Museum. Jonathan questions what pro-Russian voices think about these actions.
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Military Aid and Industry
- Putin claims Russia plans to modernize 1,600 tanks from its stocks and ramp up production over the next 3 years, in response to Western tanks being sent to Ukraine. However, this equates to just 533 tanks per year, while Russia has lost around 2,000 in Ukraine so far. The Russian tanks are also likely to be of lower quality.
- Poland announces it will increase ammunition production by several hundred percent, with most going to Ukraine, creating thousands of jobs. France plans to double production of Caesar self-propelled howitzers.
- Footage shows Ukrainians training on combined arms operations ahead of expected counter-offensives, demonstrating a mechanized approach in contrast with Russia's infantry-heavy attacks on Bakhmut.
Importance of Drones
Jonathan emphasizes the critical role of drones in the war, despite a viewer comment suggesting he focuses on them too much. The United24 charity, endorsed by celebrities, has raised $300 million for the "Army of Drones". Ukraine is working with over 80 domestic drone manufacturers and its defense minister says the country needs hundreds of thousands of UAVs. In contrast, Russians are concerned their drone capabilities are limited and the government is not adequately addressing the issue, despite receiving some from China. Nearly all battlefield reconnaissance and much direct combat now involves drones.
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Nord Stream Sabotage
German media reports that the Russian navy had ships with mini-subs capable of carrying explosives near the Nord Stream pipelines shortly before the blasts. However, government agencies have not responded to inquiries and Jonathan notes the still-murky picture around responsibility, with even China potentially benefiting most from the sabotage.
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Geopolitics and Justice
- Germany plans to expel over 30 Russian diplomats
- There is strong bipartisan support in the US Congress for the government to assist ICC efforts to prosecute Putin for war crimes, including providing evidence, which would be a policy shift
- German Chancellor Scholz believes the war will continue until Putin realizes he cannot annex substantial Ukrainian territory, comparing it to an addict needing to admit they have a problem before it can be addressed
Wrap up
Jonathan appreciates viewers watching and following his channel. He asks them to like, subscribe and share. He notes he may not be able to post more videos until late due to it being Sunday and family commitments.
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