Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Mutiny Analysis, Caspian Craft, Truck Trashing, & Russian Lies
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Table of Contents 📖
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"The convoy of Wagnerites was not moving on the asphalt. It moved through the hearts of people, cutting society in half."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses:
- Russian disinformation about a massive explosion near Kupyansk, likely a Ukrainian hit on a Russian position near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia instead based on the location of dragon's teeth fortifications
- Updates on the Wagner mutiny and Putin's pre-recorded response ignoring the events
Wagner Mutiny Analysis
- The rift between Wagner and the Russian military has formalized, tensions will continue
- Prigozhin has gone silent since announcing Wagner's withdrawal
- The mutiny has cut Russian society in half according to a Vostok Battalion commander
- Putin's position and the Russian government has been weakened, the mutiny exposed cracks that can't be fixed
- Prigozhin fits the definition of a modern warlord - accountable to no one, flourishing when central government is weak
- Russia is a failed quasi-modern state under Putin's kleptocratic authoritarianism
Caspian Sea Traffic
There has been a huge increase in maritime traffic between Russia and Iran on the Caspian Sea, with Russia transferring many old river sea vessels. Speculation is that munitions are being transferred.
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Frontline Update
- Suriat Maps shows Ukrainian gains north of Robotyne, likely breaching major Russian trench lines
- Footage shows 7 Russian military trucks destroyed by Ukrainian drone near Piatykhatky
- 3 Russian BMPs and 1 truck destroyed by Ukrainian R18 drone at night near Rivnipil
- Drones are enabling Ukraine to inflict heavy equipment losses on Russia day and night, impacting Russian logistics and defense
Russian Lessons from Syria
In an interview, the author of a book on Bashar al-Assad argues:
- Russia used devastating tactics in Syria similar to Grozny, facing little opposition
- Russian generals thought the same tactics would work in Ukraine but met a properly equipped military and air defenses
- Russia learned the wrong lessons from Syria and was unprepared for a sophisticated military mission in Ukraine
Wrap up
Jonathan argues Russia never intended to fight a war in Ukraine, just do a quick special operation to depose the government. When that failed in days, it turned into a war Russia had not prepared for, unlike their bombing campaign in Syria.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
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