Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia spreads rumors about negotiations. Uncritical people write naive articles or post stuff on Twitter like Elon Musk. US cuts off aid to Ukraine. Putin says, thanks, with your help, I'll win the war and destroy Ukraine."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:32⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. He reminds viewers to subscribe to his channel and thanks them for their support, especially the shout-out from Professor Gerdes Explains. He aims to provide comprehensive coverage of the war, leading to a high volume of content.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Data on Russian Losses (13/03/2024)
🎦 00:32-01:53⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures on Russian losses, noting that personnel losses remain high at 970, but tank and artillery system losses are relatively low. He speculates that these figures might indicate a decrease in Russian offensive operations.
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Andrew Perpetua's 24-Hour Casualty Assessment
🎦 01:53-05:14⏩
Jonathan analyzes data compiled by Andrew Perpetua from various sources, highlighting a 4:1 loss ratio favoring Ukraine. However, he expresses concern over Ukrainian losses, particularly two destroyed and one damaged helicopter. He criticizes Ukraine's handling of valuable assets, particularly in light of Russia's increasingly successful long-range reconnaissance and targeting capabilities.
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Analysis of Russian Drone Strike on Ukrainian Helicopters
🎦 05:14-11:28⏩
Jonathan discusses a drone strike that destroyed two Ukrainian Mi-17 helicopters, noting the improved optics and faster reaction times of Russian drones. He acknowledges comments suggesting solutions, but emphasizes the difficulty of countering such attacks in real-world scenarios. Despite praising Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russia, he acknowledges their recent challenges. He analyzes the footage, pointing out that it highlights the effectiveness of Russian long-range reconnaissance. He commends the pilot who managed to escape in the third helicopter.
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Further Russian Strikes and Ukrainian Losses
🎦 11:28-12:48⏩
Jonathan reports on the continuation of Russian strikes, including attacks on warehouses used to supply the previously targeted helicopters. He notes the destruction of a hangar containing missiles salvaged from the helicopters, attributing this success to effective Russian surveillance and targeting.
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John Ridge on Improved Russian ISTAR Capabilities
🎦 12:48-16:31⏩
Jonathan cites John Ridge's analysis of Russia's improved intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR) capabilities. Ridge attributes this to increased drone usage and highlights the need for the US and Europe to provide Ukraine with counter-drone (CUAS) and short-range air defense (SHORAD) systems. Jonathan criticizes those who downplay Russia's improvements, emphasizing the significance of addressing communication issues and reducing engagement times. He provides examples of previous Russian failures and contrasts them with their current effectiveness.
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Additional Loss Updates
🎦 16:31-18:40⏩
Jonathan briefly covers a helicopter crash in Russia, unrelated to the war, that resulted in multiple fatalities. He also mentions claims of fighting and equipment destruction within Russia's Belgorod region, attributed to pro-Ukrainian Russian units. He shows footage of destroyed Russian military equipment, including BTRs, a BMP, and a T-90 tank, attributed to Ukrainian forces.
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Russian Drone and Missile Strikes on Ukraine
🎦 18:40-19:46⏩
Jonathan reports on overnight drone and missile attacks within Ukraine, noting a lower than usual interception rate of Russian drones. He specifically mentions the use of S-300 missiles fired from Belarus targeting Kharkiv, highlighting the ongoing threat to the city.
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Developments in Belgorod, Kursk and Sochi
🎦 19:46-21:46⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian claims of downing Ukrainian drones, expressing skepticism about their accuracy. He reports on explosions and air raid warnings in Belgorod, indicating ongoing conflict. Additionally, he mentions a fire at Sochi Airport, with conflicting reports about the cause.
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Miscellaneous Strikes and Incidents
🎦 21:46-23:15⏩
Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian missile strike on a Russian military training ground in occupied Luhansk, resulting in an estimated 10 Russian casualties. He also mentions Ukrainian drone attacks on three Russian oil refineries, impacting fuel prices.
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Impact of Drone Strikes on Russian Oil Refineries
🎦 23:15-26:11⏩
Jonathan delves into the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, citing reports from Bloomberg and Anton Gerashchenko. He highlights the potential long-term disruption to the Ryazan refinery and the shutdown of a key unit at the Lukol refinery in Nizhny Novgorod. He suggests that these attacks, along with potential future strikes, could have significant consequences for Russia's fuel production and economy.
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Pro-Ukrainian Russian Militia Activity
🎦 26:11-28:13⏩
Jonathan discusses claims from anti-Kremlin militia groups, including the Siberian Battalion, Russian Volunteer Corps, and Freedom of Russia Legion, of ongoing fighting in five Russian settlements. He cites reports of heavy fighting and incursion attempts in regions bordering Ukraine, including Belgorod and Kursk. He also notes the Freedom of Russia Legion's stated goals of liberating Russia from Putin and eventually marching on Moscow.
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Alleged Plots and Arrests in Russia
🎦 28:13-32:26⏩
Jonathan reports on alleged bomb threats targeting Moscow from groups potentially connected to the anti-Kremlin militia. He expresses skepticism about the FSB's claims of arresting members of the Russian Volunteer Corps in St. Petersburg for plotting to poison humanitarian aid supplies, viewing it as potential propaganda.
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Jonathan's Take on Russian Propaganda and the FSB
🎦 32:26-36:04⏩
Jonathan draws parallels between the FSB's recent claims and past incidents he believes were staged. He recounts a story of an arrest where the FSB planted unconvincing evidence, including a brand new Nazi t-shirt and Sims video games, highlighting their tendency for clumsy propaganda efforts.
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Russian Military Leadership Changes and Suspicious Deaths
🎦 36:04-38:41⏩
Jonathan discusses the replacement of General Gerasimov, speculating that his disappearance coincided with a strike in Crimea and suggesting he might have been killed. He notes the recent replacement of another high-ranking Russian military official, Admiral Sokolov, who was allegedly killed in September 2023. He also mentions the suspicious deaths of several Lukoil executives, suggesting foul play might be involved. He finds it hard to believe the deaths were from natural causes.
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Nationalization of Russian Steel Plants and Detainment of Owner
🎦 38:41-39:21⏩
Jonathan reports on the nationalization of three Ural steel plants that produce materials for the Russian army. He mentions the arrest of the plants' owner, Yuri Antipov, on charges related to privatization practices from 30 years prior. He views this as a move by the Kremlin to seize control of privately-owned industries for the war effort.
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Putin's "Re-Election" and Elon Musk's Pro-Russian Stance
🎦 39:21-42:42⏩
Jonathan mocks Putin's "re-election," highlighting the lack of democratic processes and the presence of armed officials at polling stations. He criticizes Elon Musk for echoing pro-Russian narratives, particularly Musk's assertion that Russia will continue to gain territory until it encounters Ukrainian-speaking areas, a claim Jonathan finds absurd.
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Medvedev's Seven Points for Ukraine's Capitulation
🎦 42:42-43:12⏩
Jonathan outlines Medvedev's seven points for Ukraine's capitulation, emphasizing the demand for Ukraine to acknowledge its defeat, surrender unconditionally, and recognize Russian sovereignty over all Ukrainian territory. He criticizes the audacity of these demands, particularly the requirement for Ukraine to compensate Russia for its losses.
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Putin's Stance on Negotiations
🎦 43:12-44:53⏩
Jonathan highlights Putin's rejection of peace talks, quoting him as saying it would be "ridiculous" to negotiate with Ukraine just because it's running out of ammunition. He uses this to illustrate Putin's desire for complete victory and the futility of appeasing him.
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Review of a New Lada Car and the State of the Russian Economy
🎦 44:53-45:27⏩
Jonathan concludes by reviewing a new Lada car, noting the lack of basic features like a stereo, speakers, and airbags. He attributes this to sanctions and suggests that Russia is prioritizing microchips and components for its military industries at the expense of consumer goods.
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Wrap up
🎦 45:27-45:31⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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