Ukraine War Update NEWS (20230928b): Pt 2 - Bumper Mil Aid News & Geopolitics
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"When we're talking about goodness and fairness, we can see this in terms of Ukraine versus Russia. I mean, it's just, it's stark for me."
Hello Team!
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of his Ukraine War news update for 28 September 2023. There is a lot to cover.
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Germany's Taurus cruise missiles for Ukraine
- Germany is holding off on sending Taurus long-range precision missiles to Ukraine over concerns they would require German technicians to operate on the ground, which could drag Berlin closer to direct confrontation with Russia.
- Senior British officials briefed German counterparts in detail about deploying their Storm Shadow missiles, revealing confidential operational procedures.
- German officials said the coalition government approved Taurus delivery in principle, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz stalled due to concerns German personnel would need to travel to Ukraine to service and operate the complex weapon.
- The Green Party is pushing the pro-Ukraine military assistance agenda in Germany. Jonathan analyzes how green idealism and sense of injustice aligns with supporting Ukraine.
- A spokesperson for Scholz said there was no plan for imminent Taurus delivery. Ukraine first requested the system in May.
- Retrofitting Ukraine's Soviet-era warplanes to carry Taurus will take time. Jonathan speculates limited compatible airframes is another reason for the delay.
Moving air defense systems in Ukraine
- Discussion on Andrew Perpetua's livestream about moving Patriot air defense systems in Ukraine to combat the threat of Russian aviation hitting front lines with FAB-500 bombs.
- Ukraine moved a German Patriot battery close to the border to ambush Russian Su-34s and Mi-8 helicopters preparing to release glide bombs. This can't be done frequently as Ukraine only has 2 Patriot batteries currently.
- Ukraine is moving to purchase 5 more Patriot batteries which should all be delivered by end of next year, allowing more flexibility to move a battery for forward air defense in critical areas.
Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB)
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- GLSDBs are cheaper "dumb" munitions fired from HIMARS that are upgraded with precision guidance to increase range.
- Original timeline for Ukraine to receive them was October, then pushed to late November/December in small quantities for training.
- Larger quantities for general usage expected mid-way through next year. Disappointingly slow.
- Prediction: ATACMS may arrive before GLSDB, then F-16s.
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Military aid news
- Bulgaria's parliament approved transfer of unserviceable S-300 missiles to Ukraine to be rendered fit for air defense use. Useful as Ukraine can't get Soviet munitions from Russia.
- New "Frankenstein" surface-to-air missile project being developed for Ukraine by US Undersecretary of Defense LaPlante.
- Zelensky said his team is working on new powerful measures to boost Ukraine's security and capabilities to defend itself, likely related to air defense.
- NATO will increase ammunition production for Ukraine and member countries who transferred significant weapons to Ukraine.
- Ukraine is adapting mothballed MTLB-U vehicles into BMP-1 APCs. More armored vehicles like Humvees and M113s from US could make a difference.
- 82-year-old German man Reinhard Kleiner spent his €25K life savings on an ambulance for Ukrainian forces, driving it from Berlin to Kyiv himself. Highlights contrast with lack of similar civilian aid to Russia.
- Ukrainian forces training in Sweden with RBS-70 MANPADS. Swedish Gripen jets also flying.
- European partners helping Ukraine with medical gear like German donated evacuation module with ventilator and oxygen to save lives on front lines.
Mobilization challenges in Ukraine
Ukraine is trying to avoid increasing the pace of mobilization as most motivated citizens already joined voluntarily. High attrition means having to mobilize those less willing to fight on front lines where the risk of dying is high. A difficult existential decision compared to the strong belief in Ukraine's cause.
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Russian military updates
- Wagner mercenaries have returned to the front but won't pose as significant a threat as before without their main leader Prigozhin.
- Iran may soon conclude an agreement to transfer Fateh-110 and Zolfagar ballistic missiles with 300km+ range to Russia after October 18 when UN restrictions expire. Worrying development for Ukraine.
- Russia using more Iranian Shahed drones intensively and may attack energy infrastructure again.
Sanctions and frozen assets
- German-Japanese manufacturer DMG Mori continued providing components to Russian military industry, showing how corporate interests don't always align with national positions on Russia.
- US froze $8B in Russian sovereign assets, most in EU or Japan. Challenge is liquifying assets like yachts to get cash to Ukraine.
European geopolitics
- Backlash growing against UEFA proposal to allow Russia's youth football teams to compete. Poland and Latvia threatening to withdraw.
- European Parliament President Roberta Metsola believes EU accession negotiations with Ukraine should start by Christmas. Also wants to speed up process for Western Balkan countries.
- German prosecutors investigating Russian war crimes against a German citizen in Kyiv suburb in early months of invasion. Extensive work being done to collect evidence of war crimes across Ukraine.
- Ukraine will withdraw WTO claims against 3 EU countries over grain exports only if it receives future guarantees on no restrictions. Wants to launch mechanism to coordinate and verify grain exports.
- Estonian PM Kaja Kallas says NATO members should increase defense spending as there is war in Europe. Notes long-term underfunding by European NATO members compared to US. Estonia to spend 3.2% of GDP on defense.
- Sweden blocked Ericsson from supplying contracted telecom equipment to Russian companies, overriding deals made before invasion.
Polish politics and Ukraine
There were massive street protests in Poland against the ruling Law and Justice party which tried to pass a law making it difficult for opposition politicians with any past Russia ties to run, aimed at Donald Tusk. Both Tusk's opposition party and Law and Justice strongly support Ukraine, so Poland's stance unlikely to change after election.
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Other news
- Zelensky met with new British Defence Minister Grant Shapps. Jonathan questions if Shapps will be as effective as predecessor Ben Wallace given his poor reputation among UK Conservatives.
- Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny transferred to maximum security solitary confinement for 12 months.
- Azerbaijan arrested Russian-Armenian billionaire Ruben Vardanyan who owns a bank Russia uses to evade sanctions and import prohibited military goods.
Wrap up
Jonathan apologizes for the extra long video and thanks viewers for watching. He invites them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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