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Ukraine Conflict (20231129): Full Frontline Update

Front Line Wednesday, 29th November 2023, 16:40
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
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Topic IDTopic TitleTimestamp

"To think that Russia can genuinely take Chasiv Yar and then Kramatorsk, they're going to do that because then when you zoom out here, Kramatorsk, you look at how far Kyiv is away or Kremenchuk or Cherkasy. What are realistically Russia going to do? Are they realistically going to take Kramatorsk? Not at all."

Hello Team!

Jonathan discusses the feedback he has received about using 3D maps in his videos. Some viewers find it confusing, while others appreciate the added perspective. He acknowledges that he can't please everyone but will continue to use the 3D functionality as he believes it provides a useful view of the terrain.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kupiansk to Svatove to Kreminna Front Line

  • Russians have made minimal progress near Synkivka despite ongoing attempts and losses.
  • Geolocated footage shows Russian advances north of Synkivka and west of Pershotravneve.
  • There is ongoing activity along this axis, with 12 attacks reported in various locations, but no changes to the front lines.


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Bakhmut

  • No changes to the lines north or south of Bakhmut.
  • The situation south of Bakhmut is challenging for Ukraine, with increased assault frequencies and notable losses, but it's too early to declare a turning point.
  • According to pro-Russian sources, Russia has taken control of Ozarianivka (Zelenopillia), giving them a buffer zone on the northeastern outskirts of Bakhmut.
  • Russian advances around Bakhmut are seen as an attempt to divert Ukrainian reinforcements from Avdiivka, which is a Russian priority target.


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Avdiivka

  • Geolocated footage indicates marginal Russian advances in the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka.
  • Russian forces withdrew from the outskirts of Stepove to preserve personnel, while fighting continues near the settlement.
  • Russians are attacking with small infantry groups after suffering significant equipment losses.
  • In the southern part of Avdiivka, specifically the industrial zone, Russians have achieved partial control despite facing heavy losses. The situation remains dynamic.
  • A Russian soldier claimed that Russian forces lack sufficient air defence and electronic warfare capabilities in the Marinka direction, allowing Ukrainian forces to swiftly target their positions.


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Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka

  • Ukrainian forces have achieved unspecified success west of Vuhledar towards Pavlivka over the past several days.
  • Poor weather conditions continue to create issues for aerial reconnaissance on both sides.
  • According to Andrew Perpetua's map, there has been a change in control near Velyka Novosilka and Pavlivka, but the ISW states that Russians did not conduct offensive operations in this area.


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Kherson and Dnipro River

  • No changes along the Dnipro River front line, which is concerning for Ukraine as the more positional it becomes, the more challenging it is for them to make progress.
  • According to open-source intelligence, 300-400 Ukrainian troops (20% of the 36th Brigade) are holding out against much larger Russian forces in the Kherson region, suggesting that the Russian units are not at full strength.
  • Despite being weakened, the Russian forces are still able to keep the Ukrainians in check, and Ukraine will need significantly more troops and equipment to overcome them.
  • The marshy terrain and numerous waterways make it difficult for Ukraine to move equipment across the river and establish a robust presence.
  • Russian airstrikes, particularly around Krynky, pose a significant challenge for Ukrainian forces trying to store equipment and supplies in the area.


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Wrap up

Jonathan emphasises the importance of the Ukrainians expanding their bridgehead across the Dnipro River. Until they can significantly widen their presence, they remain vulnerable to Russian airstrikes and artillery. He encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and show their support for the channel.

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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

The transcript was clear and I did not have any difficulty understanding the content. The names of some of the settlements were a bit challenging, but I was able to work out the spellings based on the context.

🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process

Steps: Watch the video and read through the transcript Identify the main topics covered in the video Summarise each topic, keeping the key points, insights and opinions Use the provided XML structure to format the summary Ensure the summary uses British English spellings and grammar Review and refine the summary as needed

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Summaries based on original content from Jonathan MS Pearce, J.R. (Cartographer)

I'm a bot! I summarise ATP Geopolitics videos