Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News

"Don't cry wolf. Mate, you are the shepherd and I'm sorry, we don't believe you anymore. That wolf has come to town. It's come to your fields and next it's coming to town. We don't believe a word you say, dude. I believe Darth Putin far more than I believe you."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-01:11⏩

Jonathan starts the video by acknowledging the high volume of content he produces. He mentions his earlier live stream with Greg Terry, which focused on frontline updates, and highlights their fundraising success – over $200,000 raised for medevac vehicles for Ukraine.

Russian Su-35 shot down over Crimea (Friendly Fire)

🎦 01:11-03:08⏩

Jonathan reports a Russian Su-35 fighter jet being shot down over occupied Crimea. Early footage shows the plane falling, with confirmation from sources like Special Enquiry on CAT suggesting it was a friendly fire incident. The pilot appears to have ejected safely. Jonathan notes that losing a pilot is more detrimental to Russia than losing an airframe due to the extensive training required for pilots.

Poland: Russian ambassador leaves after failing to attend meeting. Ukraine-Poland discuss border issues

🎦 03:08-05:04⏩

• Russian Ambassador to Poland, Sergei Andreev, has left Poland after failing to attend a meeting with the Polish Foreign Minister following a Russian missile entering Polish territory.
• A Ukrainian delegation is in Warsaw to discuss border issues, with hopes of finding solutions beneficial to both countries.
• Key areas of concern are agricultural trade and infrastructure development. Joint border control is being considered.

Poland and Czechia Intelligence disrupt Russian Disinformation Network

🎦 05:04-05:49⏩

Polish and Czechia intelligence services have disrupted a significant Russian disinformation campaign aimed at destabilising Poland and discrediting Ukraine.

French Delegation in Kyiv: France increases support for Ukraine

🎦 05:49-06:38⏩

A French delegation, led by Yael Brun-Pivet, Head of the National Assembly, is in Kyiv. Jonathan sees this as significant, indicating France's growing support for Ukraine, both rhetorically and tangibly. He views Russia as France's primary adversary.

France: Fake Government Websites spread disinformation

🎦 06:38-07:11⏩

France's Ministére des Armées has issued a warning about fake government websites spreading disinformation on social media. These sites mimic official government platforms to spread misinformation. One example targets Ukraine with a site called “Get Involved in Ukraine.”

Jonathan's thoughts on Russian disinformation, Twitter and Elon Musk

🎦 07:11-09:23⏩

• Jonathan criticises Twitter as a breeding ground for disinformation, highlighting Russia's involvement in such campaigns globally.
• He expresses concern about Elon Musk's amplification of demonstrably false claims made by David Sachs, a friend of Musk's, regarding Ukraine.
• Jonathan argues that Sachs and the "Duran" podcast, which Sachs supports, are complicit in spreading Russian propaganda. He connects this ecosystem directly to Elon Musk, criticising the platform owner for using his influence to spread disinformation.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister visits India

🎦 09:23-12:21⏩

• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is visiting India.
• The visit aims to strengthen ties between the two countries and discuss India's participation in the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.
• Jonathan analyses the complex relationship within BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). While aiming to counter US hegemony and establish an alternative to the US dollar, the group faces internal tensions.
• India and China have ongoing border disputes and strained relations with Russia.
• Jonathan observes that the US is pressuring countries like India, China, and the UAE to limit financial dealings with Russia by threatening secondary sanctions, a tactic that appears to be effective.

Russia imports gasoline from Belarus after Ukrainian strikes impact refineries

🎦 12:21-15:49⏩

• Russia is importing gasoline from Belarus due to shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.
• Jonathan sees this as evidence that the Ukrainian strikes are having a tangible impact on Russia's ability to refine and export petrochemicals.
• He notes that this will affect Russia's war funding and supply chain to occupied territories.
• The Euromaidan Press argues that these strikes, if sustained, could significantly disrupt Russia's war machine. Despite its vast oil resources, Russia has a limited number of refineries.
• Jonathan questions whether Ukraine possesses a sufficient stockpile of drones to maintain this strategy, suggesting they might be used as quickly as they are produced.
• He mentions but dismisses the rumour of US disapproval of the strikes, believing it to be strategic public messaging rather than genuine discontent.

Russia considers raising taxes due to financial strain of Ukraine War

🎦 15:49-18:01⏩

• Putin is contemplating tax increases, including a progressive tax, to counter the financial strain of the war in Ukraine.
• The conflict, estimated to cost $300 million per day, combined with sanctions and rearmament efforts, has severely depleted the Kremlin's finances.
• Russia has dipped into its sovereign wealth fund, even selling gold reserves, to finance the war.
• Jonathan criticises Putin's claims of economic growth, attributing any rise in GDP to increased military spending, which masks the struggles of other sectors within the Russian economy.

Turkish firms halt trade with Russia over payment issues, US sanctions impact felt

🎦 18:01-20:29⏩

• Trade between Russia and Turkey is being disrupted as Turkish companies struggle to receive payments due to fear of US sanctions.
• The Turkish Ministry of Trade considers this "force majeure", highlighting the impact of US sanctions.
• Jonathan sees this as the US effectively leveraging its economic power in lieu of providing substantial military aid to Ukraine. He argues that the US is using sanctions strategically to pressure countries to limit their economic engagement with Russia.
• Countries like Turkey, India, the UAE, and China are reducing their trade with Russia to avoid these sanctions.

Gabon emerges as major supplier of aircraft parts to Russia, circumventing sanctions

🎦 20:29-22:05⏩

• Gabon has become the primary supplier of spare parts for Russian aircraft, circumventing Western sanctions.
• In 2023, almost $2 billion worth of aircraft parts were imported to Russia, with three-quarters coming from Gabon.
• The Moscow Times, an independent Russian media outlet, suggests that the companies in Gabon involved in these transactions exhibit characteristics of shell companies, potentially set up to obscure the trade.
• Jonathan speculates on potential US and EU pressure on Gabon to curb this trade, similar to the actions taken with other countries aiding Russia in sanctions evasion.

Siemens employees charged by Germany over turbine sales to Crimea

🎦 22:05-24:06⏩

• German prosecutors are charging five Siemens employees, four German and one Swiss, for violating sanctions by selling gas turbines to Russian-occupied Crimea.
• The employees are accused of knowingly facilitating $119 million worth of sales, understanding the turbines would end up in Crimea. Jonathan distinguishes this from cases where smaller components might inadvertently end up in Russia through complex supply chains.
• He believes that the size and specific application of the turbines made their final destination evident, making the charges against Siemens justifiable.

US and UK investigate cryptocurrency transactions linked to Russia

🎦 24:06-24:40⏩

The US and UK are investigating over $20 billion worth of cryptocurrency transactions passing through a Russia-based exchange, suspecting sanctions evasion tactics used to fund the war in Ukraine. Jonathan highlights this as another example of efforts to cut off Russia's financial lifelines.

Russian Propagandists aim to "restore historical justice" by capturing more territory

🎦 24:40-28:05⏩

• Jonathan brings attention to Russian propagandists advocating for the capture of Finland, Poland, the Baltic states, and Alaska to "restore historical justice."
• He condemns these dangerous narratives and criticises those in the US, like Marjorie Taylor Greene, who support Russia, either directly or indirectly, by opposing aid to Ukraine.
• He argues that their stance ignores the blatant aggression and territorial ambitions displayed by Russia.
• Jonathan draws parallels between Putin’s past assurances and his current actions, emphasising the lack of credibility in Putin’s claims that he will not attack NATO or Europe. He uses the annexation of Crimea as a prime example of this pattern of denial and expansion.

US and South Korea impose sanctions on North Korea over WMD programme

🎦 28:05-28:47⏩

• The US and South Korea have jointly imposed sanctions on six individuals and two entities for financing North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction programme.
• Two of the targeted individuals are North Korean nationals based in Russia, highlighting the connection to the war in Ukraine, as North Korea supplies arms to Russia.

Flemish politician investigated for ties to China, highlighting broader geopolitical concerns

🎦 28:47-32:09⏩

• Jonathan discusses a Belgian far-right politician, Philip de Winter, being investigated for his ties to the Chinese Communist Party.
• This follows similar discoveries of individuals with links to China within UK politics.
• Jonathan underscores the growing influence of China on the world stage and the need for vigilance against its attempts to exert influence, comparing it to the ongoing efforts to counter Russian disinformation and political maneuvering.
• He emphasises that this is a complex geopolitical game with multiple players, including the US, Russia, China, and the EU, all vying for dominance.

US House Speaker potentially faces ouster over Ukraine aid, highlighting political divides

🎦 32:09-37:59⏩

• Jonathan analyses the political complexities surrounding US aid to Ukraine. House Speaker Mike Johnson faces a potential ouster attempt by Marjorie Taylor Greene due to stalled aid.
• Some Democrats have indicated a willingness to support Johnson to ensure the aid passes, potentially creating a scenario where the Speaker is beholden to the opposing party.
• Jonathan explores the dynamics within the Republican Party, particularly the tensions between the MAGA faction and those willing to engage in bipartisan efforts.
• He questions Johnson’s options, whether to prioritize his position or risk losing it by supporting Ukraine aid. He invites viewer opinions on the matter.

Wrap up

🎦 37:59-38:25⏩

Jonathan concludes the extended geopolitical news update, expressing his need for tea and breakfast after the long recording session. He thanks viewers for their time and encourages them to like, share, and subscribe.