REUPLOAD - Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia's advance in this area will not be easy or quick. It's impossible for a collapse to happen in this situation."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to his Ukraine War Frontline Update, reminding viewers to check the map key if needed.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Large Fire at St Petersburg Airport (Russia)
🎦 00:15-01:38⏩
Jonathan reports a large fire at a hangar in an industrial zone near St. Petersburg airport in Russia. While the cause of the fire is unknown, its proximity to the airport is notable as it suggests a potential vulnerability in Russian air defenses, potentially allowing Ukrainian drones to operate in the vicinity.
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Frontline Update: Northeastern Axis - No Changes (Kupyansk, Svatove, Kramina)
🎦 01:38-02:28⏩
Jonathan observes no changes along the northeastern frontline, from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kremina, despite reported Russian troop buildup. He notes activity in the Sieniawka area but acknowledges the lack of confirmation regarding Russian advances.
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Siversk (Ukraine): Civilian Vehicles Hit by Russian Drones
🎦 02:28-03:11⏩
Jonathan shares insights from Pierre Dupont, who was prevented from doing humanitarian work in Siversk due to the dangerous situation. Russian drones are targeting the area, forcing residents to resort to cycling instead of driving. Two civilian vehicles were reportedly hit, highlighting Russia's disregard for civilian casualties, a pattern observed in attacks along the Dnipro River.
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Frontline Update: Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Konstantynivka - No Changes & Analysis
🎦 03:11-05:58⏩
Jonathan discusses the static frontline in Bakhmut, Evenivka and Chasiv Yar. He mentions Greg's prediction of Chasiv Yar falling to Russia but personally believes Ukraine will fiercely defend it to protect the vital buffer zone it provides to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. He questions the strategic importance of Bakhmut given compromised logistics and argues that if a fight is inevitable, it's best to engage as far east as possible to avoid a scenario where Russia gains more ground uncontested.
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Frontline Update: Avdiivka (Ukraine) - Russian Gains
🎦 05:58-07:23⏩
Jonathan highlights Andrew Perpetua's mapping, which shows Russian gains in Avdiivka, particularly in the Berdychi area. Jonathan notes Perpetua's mapping often aligns with later developments on Deep State Map and Syriac Maps, suggesting some predictive accuracy despite potential overconfidence.
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Frontline Update: Limited Russian Gains & Ukrainian Reinforcements/Ammunition
🎦 07:23-08:12⏩
Jonathan emphasises the limited nature of Russian advances, with Perpetua reporting only 1.84 square kilometers gained across the entire frontline. He connects this to the arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements and ammunition, particularly in Avdiivka.
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Frontline Update: Southern Front (Pervomaiske to Robotyne) - No Changes (Mostly)
🎦 08:12-09:52⏩
Jonathan reports no significant changes from Pervomaiske to Robotyne, apart from ongoing fighting near Robotyne. He notes the Ukrainians are holding their ground well despite heavy Russian losses of equipment. He mentions Surat Maps showing Russian control of the tank ditch and dragon's teeth near Robotyne while other mappers disagree.
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Robotyne (Ukraine): Trench Warfare Update ("Alien's Head")
🎦 09:52-15:20⏩
Jonathan focuses on the intense trench warfare around Robotyne, referencing a specific area nicknamed the "Alien's Head" due to its shape. He plays a clip from Andrew Perpetua's livestream where he discusses the complexity of these trenches. Perpetua notes that while some Russian trenches are well-designed with overhead cover, Ukrainian forces are effectively targeting them using dive-bombing drones equipped with thermobaric munitions.
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Kinburn Spit (Ukraine): Ukrainians Expanding Bridgehead?
🎦 15:20-17:03⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the Kinburn Spit, where there are reports of Ukrainian attempts to expand their bridgehead. While Ukrainian sources suggest some success, Jonathan remains sceptical due to heavy Russian resistance, including aerial reconnaissance, artillery fire, and drone strikes.
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Donbas (Ukraine): Ukrainian Defensive Preparations & Analysis
🎦 17:03-19:26⏩
Jonathan presents Syriac Maps' analysis based on work by Clement Muller and Military Summary, showing extensive Ukrainian trench systems being established across the Donbas. The analysis suggests these fortifications will make a rapid Russian advance difficult and a Ukrainian collapse unlikely. Jonathan draws parallels to the challenges Ukrainian forces faced during their counteroffensive due to the layered Russian defenses. Syriac Maps contends that a Ukrainian collapse is only plausible if their resources become critically depleted.
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Wrap up
🎦 19:26-19:53⏩
Jonathan concludes by emphasizing the positive news of Russia's stalled offensive and encourages viewer engagement. He signs off, expressing hope for the continuation of this trend.
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