Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia is using, according to the Kyiv Independent, new distracting drone types during a recent attack on Ukraine. According to the administration, Russia used a significant number of so-called distracting drones designed to probe air defenses rather than destroy targets."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another update, pointing out the date and the relentless march of summer. He directs viewers to the usual disclaimers in the video description and prepares to dive into the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Data: Drone Wave Insights
🎦 00:17-02:31⏩
Jonathan highlights an unprecedented surge in downed Russian drones, reaching a new 30-day high of 115. He credits 'Del,' who manages the detailed spreadsheet linked in the description. Jonathan explains the lag in official figures, which often miss entire waves recorded later. He analyses Del's data, emphasizing the exceptionally high drone activity despite low cruise missile numbers. This record-breaking surge signals a shift in Russian tactics.
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Russian Losses Indicate Intense Assault Despite Challenges
🎦 02:31-04:06⏩
Jonathan analyses the broader Russian losses, noting the significant number of armoured personnel carriers (42) and vehicles and fuel tanks (77). He infers that the Ukrainians are facing sustained Russian attacks. The high personnel loss (1370) further underscores the intensity of the Russian offensive despite known material and personnel constraints. The current loss ratio is approximately 3:1, favoring Ukraine, aligning with their strategic goals.
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Ukrainian Losses: First Confirmed Leopard 1A5 Destruction
🎦 04:06-04:25⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Ukrainian losses, noting the first confirmed destruction of a Leopard 1A5 tank with imagery available. While unfortunate, he emphasizes that this is the first such loss among the 58 Leopard 1A5s delivered by Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands.
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Russian Losses: Helicopter Downed, Equipment Losses High
🎦 04:26-05:17⏩
Jonathan examines the Russian losses, emphasizing the high ratio of destroyed to damaged equipment, a negative indicator for the Russians. He points out the loss of a Mi-8 helicopter, previously reported, alongside surveillance and communication equipment, various tanks, BMP infantry fighting vehicles, APCs, MRAPs, trucks, and civilian vehicles.
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Prokrosk Region: Russian Gains Come at a High Cost
🎦 05:18-06:25⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian territorial gains in the Prokrosk region, citing data from 'Nalcio', who tracks geographically specific losses. Despite the gains, Russian losses are five times higher than Ukrainian losses (1524 to 298). Over the past 24 hours, this ratio has widened to 8:1, indicating a costly strategy for Russia, a point Jonathan stresses is supported by verifiable data.
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Destroyed Leopard 1A5: Visual Confirmation
🎦 06:26-07:06⏩
Jonathan shows footage from 'lost underscore war in UA' of the first destroyed Leopard 1A5 tank near Lyman in the Donetsk region. He notes that Ukraine expects to receive many more of these tanks to replenish their losses.
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Downed Mi-8: Drone Warfare Evolves, Ukrainian Persistence
🎦 07:06-08:27⏩
Jonathan revisits the Mi-8 helicopter downing, citing a Forbes report stating it was the first successful Ukrainian helicopter downing using a 2kg drone, likely an FPV drone. He speculates on the drone's type and notes the claim that the helicopter was targeted far behind the front lines, suggesting an increase in the range of Ukrainian FPV drones. This incident marks the culmination of 10 months of attempts by Ukrainian drone operators. Jonathan ponders the implications for future helicopter protection, emphasizing the need for countermeasures against this evolving threat.
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Air Defence Success: Seven Out of Seven Drones Downed
🎦 08:27-08:40⏩
Jonathan moves on to recent strikes, reporting a quiet night with Ukrainian air defence successfully shooting down all seven Shahid drones.
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Drone Attack on Russian Opposition Figure's House Raises Questions
🎦 08:40-09:26⏩
Jonathan expresses confusion over a report of a Russian Shahid drone attack on the house of Russian opposition politician Ilya Ponomarev near Kyiv. This contradicts the reported 100% drone shoot-down rate over the past two nights. He questions the timing of the attack, the drone's intended target, and its potential connection to the official drone downing statistics.
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Russia Employs New "Distracting Drones" to Test Ukrainian Defenses
🎦 09:26-10:32⏩
Jonathan discusses a Kyiv Independent report stating that Russia used new "distracting drones" in a July 31 attack to probe Ukrainian air defenses rather than inflict damage. While similar claims have surfaced before regarding Shahid drones without warheads, possibly for mapping or identifying air defense locations, this report suggests a different type of drone is being used. He highlights Russia's intent to gather intelligence and adapt its tactics.
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Romania Discovers More Drone Debris, Prompting Concerns and Denials
🎦 10:32-11:49⏩
Jonathan reports the discovery of new drone debris in Romania near the Ukrainian border following Russian attacks. This incident, occurring after potential drone crossings near the Danube River border, is causing increased concern in Romania as the debris was found closer to a populated area than previous instances. This has supposedly led to Romania firing upon Russian drones near or over Ukrainian territory, a claim that was later denied. Jonathan expresses his belief that Romania would be justified in taking such action.
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Ukrainian MiG-29 in Hardened Shelter: Increased Aircraft Protection
🎦 11:49-13:21⏩
Jonathan highlights a tweet from OSINT Technical showing a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet inside a hardened aircraft shelter in western Ukraine. He stresses the importance of this, signifying a shift towards seriously protecting Ukrainian aircraft. This suggests that recent satellite imagery of exposed aircraft, like a likely decoy Su-24, indicate a deliberate strategy to protect operational aircraft, especially with the reported arrival of six F-16s.
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YouTube Access Restricted in Russia, Tightening Information Control
🎦 13:21-14:11⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing restriction of YouTube access in Russia, comparing it to North Korea's information control. He presents a graph showing a sharp decline in YouTube availability over the past 10 days, signaling a deliberate effort by the Russian government to control the information accessible to its citizens.
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US-Russia Prisoner Exchange Imminent, Potentially Already Executed
🎦 14:11-15:12⏩
Jonathan announces an imminent, possibly already completed, US-Russia prisoner exchange involving 20 to 30 high-profile individuals, including Evan Gershkovich, Rico Krieger, Paul Whelan, and Vladimir Kara-Murza. He notes the significance of this event and the potential for future analysis of the terms and beneficiaries of the exchange.
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Wrap up
🎦 15:12-15:30⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and mentions his upcoming schedule, noting that his output might be inconsistent due to personal commitments. He plans to focus on mapping updates in the near future.
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