Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"The war has truly come to Russia... whether there's any long-term utility for the Ukrainians doing this I I wouldn't know yet but it's certainly Kazinka is where it's happening."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update. He reminds viewers to check the map key if needed. He observes that there haven't been significant changes on the frontline, possibly due to three factors: Potential Russian culmination, reduced pressure on Russia to secure victories after the March 17th elections, and the impact of rasputitsa (muddy season) hindering troop movements.
Return to top⤴️
📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Belgorod and Cross-Border Activity
🎦 00:17-06:00⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Belgorod, noting increased cross-border activity with shelling and airstrikes.
- He speculates that a Kh-59 missile strike in Kharkiv might be retaliation against the activities of "Free Russia" units operating in the region.
- Despite this, "Free Russia" units remain active, with footage suggesting ongoing presence in Kazinka, a village near Velyka Pysarivka that was heavily shelled.
- Jonathan cites footage of a Russian assault on a house supposedly held by the Russian Volunteer Corps in Kazinka, which the Russians appear to have abandoned after a grenade accident.
- He also mentions footage of Russian aircraft bombing Kazinka, highlighting the escalation of the conflict into Russian territory, making the village uninhabitable going forward.
- While the long-term strategic value of these cross-border operations remains unclear, Jonathan acknowledges the intensity of the fighting in Kazinka, with both sides likely suffering losses.
- He cites a source claiming heavier equipment losses for the pro-Ukrainian Russians, raising questions about the operation's effectiveness.
Northeastern Frontline: Kupyansk to Kreminna
🎦 06:00-06:18⏩
- Jonathan reports no significant movements along the northeastern frontline, from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna.
- He notes that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports mainly on troop positions with no actual advances.
Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mariinka
🎦 06:18-08:20⏩
Jonathan observes the following:
- No movement in Bakhmut, with only ongoing positional engagements.
- Minimal changes in Avdiivka, with the Deep State Maps clarifying the frontline but not reporting attacks.
- Deep State Maps aligns with Syriac Maps' assessment of the situation north of Opytne, suggesting Ukrainian withdrawal from Tonenke towards the river and Russian advances north of Opytne, countered by Ukrainian forces moving down from Sieverne.
- Jonathan expects Ukrainian forces to leverage the river for defensive advantage in the area.
- He cites a geolocation by the ISW confirming Russian advances on the northwestern edge of the Pervomaisky Dam, southwest of Avdiivka, but notes that the footage doesn't definitively confirm control of the area.
- He acknowledges claims of Russian gains around Orlivka, but with Ukrainian counterattacks hindering full control.
- Jonathan observes ongoing positional engagements in the south, including Mariinka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka.
Southern Frontline and Robotyne
🎦 08:20-11:56⏩
- Jonathan points out that ISW reports positional engagements along the entire southern frontline.
- He highlights Syriac Maps' report on Robotyne, indicating that Russian forces have gained more control in the center of the settlement, despite heavy destruction.
- Ukrainian counterattacks from the north aim to dislodge or repel the Russians. Jonathan acknowledges the lack of confirmation from other sources.
- He mentions the ISW's report of ongoing positional engagements in Robotyne.
Kinburn Spit and Dacha Areas
🎦 11:56-13:33⏩
- Jonathan cites the ISW's report of continued positional engagements on the left bank of the Dnipro River, including near Kinburn Spit.
- He highlights a Russian milblogger's claim of a small Ukrainian force remaining in Kinburn Spit, with the majority positioned west of the settlement in forested and coastal areas.
- He mentions ongoing Ukrainian operations in dacha areas near the Antonivsky Road Bridge, confirming information from Brandon Mitchell on Times Radio.
Wrap Up
🎦 13:33-13:58⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He expresses gratitude for the well-wishes regarding his health, mentioning a successful MRI scan and a positive conversation with his neurologist. He emphasizes the importance of keeping his brain and body active, and signs off with a promise of tea and treadmill time.
Return to top⤴️