Ukraine Conflict: Avdiivka Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"They're using this as now their main frontline tool to almost like a form of artillery, these aviation strikes."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, focusing on the Avdiivka frontline update.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Dire Situation in Avdiivka: Intense Pressure and Losses
🎦 00:08-01:03⏩
- Jonathan highlights the immense pressure Avdiivka has faced in the last few days, particularly overnight.
- The situation is described as "not good," with the Third Assault Brigade facing significant losses.
- The Ukrainians are reported to be critically low on artillery shells, severely limiting their ability to defend.
Russian Tactics: Fresh Troops, Accurate Artillery, and KAB-500 Bombs
🎦 01:03-02:00⏩
- Russia is deploying fresh troops and employing artillery with increased accuracy.
- Jonathan speculates about the potential use of Krasnopol laser-guided artillery shells.
- Russian forces are heavily bombarding the area with KAB-500 bombs, causing significant destruction.
Devastation from Airstrikes: Avdiivka Under Heavy Bombardment
🎦 02:00-03:01⏩
- Jonathan, referencing a map by Andrew Perpetua, points out the extensive use of Russian airstrikes on Avdiivka, with multiple bombs being released per strike.
- The attacks are described as devastating, with limited options for the Ukrainians to counter them due to the lack of F-16s or the ability to deploy Patriots safely.
- The situation is characterized as "pretty desperate," with newly trained Ukrainian troops being sent to the area to try and hold back the Russian advance.
Impact of Equipment Shortages: Lack of Artillery Shells Crippling Ukrainian Defence
🎦 03:01-04:06⏩
- Jonathan stresses that the dire situation in Avdiivka is primarily down to equipment shortages, particularly the critical lack of artillery shells.
- He contrasts this with the extensive use of drones by Ukrainian forces, which are insufficient to counter the scale of the Russian assault.
- The absence of artillery shells to hold back enemy forces is highlighted as a major factor in the Ukrainian losses.
Speculation on Zaluzhny's Removal and Sursky's Challenging Position
🎦 04:06-06:38⏩
- Jonathan speculates on the timing of General Zaluzhny's removal as Commander-in-Chief and the appointment of General Sursky.
- He suggests that Sursky is walking into a "poison chalice" and will likely be blamed for the situation in Avdiivka, even though it unfolded under Zaluzhny's watch.
- This move is seen as potentially protecting Zaluzhny's popularity and allowing him to remain a potential political ally for Zelensky in the future.
Russian Air Power Dominance: Glide Bombs and Aviation Strikes as Key Weapons
🎦 06:38-09:26⏩
- The lack of effective countermeasures to Russian air power, especially glide bombs, is emphasized as a major problem.
- Jonathan notes the Russians are increasingly relying on aviation strikes as their primary means of attack, almost like artillery, with devastating effects.
- The effectiveness of Russian tactics, using a combination of airstrikes, drones, and artillery, is acknowledged.
- The urgent need for Ukraine to find solutions to counter these tactics, especially the KB FOB bombs, is highlighted.
Wrap Up: A Sobering Assessment of the Situation
🎦 09:26-09:48⏩
- Jonathan concludes the video with a somber reflection on the situation in Avdiivka, emphasizing the critical role of equipment in determining the outcome.
- He reiterates that the lack of equipment, particularly artillery shells, is the primary factor behind the Ukrainian struggles.