Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"As I've said many a time, Surat Maps will be very overzealous in what the Russians control... as soon as they see the Russians at a point uh on the map with mechanized equipment or even human beings, they'll say right, 'Russia controls that.'"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:51⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update, reminding them to check the map key if needed. He mentions a recent interview with Jonathan Fink from the Silicon Curtain channel, plugging their upcoming interview on Thursday. He encourages viewers to support Silicon Curtain and notes the lack of changes on the frontline in the northeastern axis.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Frontline: Heavy Russian Equipment Losses and Ukrainian Defence
🎦 00:51-02:30⏩
Jonathan discusses the high number of Russian equipment losses reported, particularly in Novomykolaivka, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Terny, and Torska. He highlights this as positive for Ukraine, demonstrating their effective defense despite ammunition and resource shortages. Jonathan suggests that the recent influx of promised aid has given Ukraine the confidence to utilize stockpiled ammunition, including cluster munitions, Javelins, and mines, alongside their effective drone usage. While acknowledging Ukrainian casualties, he commends their defensive efforts despite the challenging circumstances.
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Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna: Ukrainian Counter-attacks and Russian Troop Movements
🎦 02:30-03:45⏩
Jonathan references a report from Reporting from Ukraine about Ukrainian counter-attacks in the Sienkivka area, reclaiming some territory. He acknowledges speculation about Russia potentially redeploying troops from the Kupiansk area to the Terny-Torska salient, which may indicate a lack of Russian strength in depth. Jonathan remains skeptical about claims of a large-scale Russian offensive in the Kupiansk or Lyman areas, noting that these haven't materialized. He commends Ukraine's defense in the northeastern sector, considering it one of the most stable parts of the frontline. However, he acknowledges the fluid nature of war and the potential for changes.
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Siversk-Lyman: Chasiv Yar and Ivanivska Holding Strong
🎦 03:45-05:37⏩
Jonathan points out the lack of changes around Siversk, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, and Ivanivska. He dismisses rumours of Ukraine being pushed out of these areas and expresses interest in seeing how long Ukraine will defend Chasiv Yar before potentially withdrawing to stronger defensive positions. Citing discussions with military analysts, Jonathan suggests that Ukraine may not hold Chasiv Yar as fiercely as Bakhmut due to potential personnel shortages. However, he acknowledges that a larger mobilization could change this.
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Southern Avdiivka Salient: Russian Advances in Tonenke
🎦 05:37-07:06⏩
Moving to the southern Avdiivka salient, Jonathan highlights Tonenke as the focal point, citing Surat Maps reports of further Russian advances. While noting Andrew Perpetua's agreement with some Surat Maps assessments, he cautions against their tendency to overestimate Russian control based on troop presence. Jonathan believes Surat Maps often mistakes Russian attacks in an area for control, which is often confirmed later after repeated assaults. He acknowledges that Russia is attempting to secure the area between two watercourses west of Tonenke, despite heavy losses.
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Tonenke: River Crossing and Ukrainian Defense
🎦 07:06-09:11⏩
Jonathan reads a Surat Maps report claiming Russian forces have pushed west of Tonenke, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat across the Donets River. The report also mentions Russian advances north of Vodiane and Pervomaiske, capitalizing on the capture of Vodiane itself. Jonathan suggests Russia aims to exploit gains in Pervomaiske to advance into the area between the watercourse and the Derna River, where Ukraine holds a more favourable defensive position on higher ground. He expresses concern over Surat Maps' claim that Russian forces have crossed the river west of Orikhove, though remains doubtful. Jonathan emphasises the potential threat if Russia establishes a bridgehead across the river, citing a Noel Report stating Russian troops have indeed crossed near Semenivka, potentially posing a significant problem for Ukraine.
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Ukrainian Use of Guided Glide Bombs and Javelins
🎦 09:11-12:51⏩
Shifting focus to Ukrainian tactics, Jonathan showcases footage of a Ukrainian "hammer" (presumably a guided glide bomb) striking a Russian position in Tonenke. He notes the increasing use of such munitions by Ukrainian forces, mirroring Russia's previous tactics. Jonathan speculates this could be due to increased confidence in receiving further supplies or a strategic decision to utilize available resources. He highlights the significance of this development, as it allows Ukraine to strike Russian positions with greater precision and impact. Jonathan then analyses footage of a Javelin strike in Tonenke, focusing on the terrain advantage it provides Ukrainian forces. He commends JR for pointing out the strategic value of the higher ground, which allows Ukrainian forces to target advancing Russian vehicles within the Javelin's effective range. Jonathan connects this to recent reports of increased Javelin usage, suggesting a potential influx of these weapons.
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Donetsk Frontline and Destroyed Russian Equipment
🎦 12:51-14:55⏩
Jonathan reports no changes in Mariinka, Krasnohorivka, or Novomykolaivka, which he considers significant as these areas have posed the most challenges for Ukraine. He then highlights footage from Urozharane, where the Ukrainian 58th Motorized Brigade reportedly repelled a Russian attack supported by cluster munitions and drone-dropped grenades. This reinforces the importance of drone warfare and the growing use of combined arms tactics by both sides. Jonathan points out the lack of changes in Robotyne and along the Dnipro frontline. However, he emphasizes the significant amount of footage showing destroyed Russian equipment in various areas, including Bakhmut, Tonenke, Toska, and Novomykolaivka.
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Bakhmut: Chasiv Yar Update and Potential Future Battle
🎦 14:55-15:29⏩
Jonathan mentions a report from Noelle Reports stating that Russia has taken control of a trench network east of Chasiv Yar, attributing this to their gains in Ivaniske, which secured their flanks. According to the report, Ukraine anticipates a potential push towards Chasiv Yar and is preparing for a significant battle. However, Jonathan notes there have been no changes to the frontline map since that report, at least to his knowledge.
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Wrap up
🎦 15:29-16:19⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, thanking viewers for their support and encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share. He also urges subscribers to click the bell icon and select "all" notifications to avoid missing updates. Addressing viewer comments, Jonathan clarifies that he does not delete comments and attributes any censorship to YouTube's algorithms, which he believes are heavy-handed and target both pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian perspectives. He specifically mentions complaints from pro-Russian viewers who accuse him of censorship. After a final thank you, Jonathan signs off.
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