Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
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"If that becomes more widespread then it's game over Russian forces they start surrendering en masse you know there's no amount of mobilization that's going to overcome that it just shows endemic morale issues and uh a kind of sense of hopelessness"
04/09/2023
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war frontlines for September 4th, 2023. He mentions it will be a shorter video as there is limited new information. Syriac Maps, a pro-Russian mapper Jonathan previously used, has gone offline indefinitely for personal reasons. Jonathan's current maps use Andrew Perpetua's Russian defensive line and Deep State Map's pre-counteroffensive Ukrainian line.
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Svatove-Kreminna direction
- The Ukrainian head of Luhansk Oblast stated Russian forces resumed offensive operations near Novoheorhiivka after significant losses over the past week forced them to pause.
- A Russian milblogger claimed Russian forces captured 6 unspecified positions northwest of Petropavlivka in the Kupiansk area.
- There is ongoing activity in the Bilohorivka area and Serebryansky forests but no changes to the frontline mapping.
Bakhmut area
- A milblogger claimed Ukrainian forces reduced their operational tempo near the Berkhivka Reservoir north of Bakhmut. Jonathan notes the Ukrainians stepped back from this area about 3 weeks ago as it was too attritional, instead focusing on the south where they are having more success.
- Deep State Map shows Ukrainian gains south of Bakhmut in Klishchiivka. The Ukrainians likely control 80%+ of the settlement. A destroyed bridge and interdicted railway make it difficult for Russia to supply troops in the area.
- Footage shows dozens of Russian soldiers surrendering in the Klishchiivka area. Jonathan says if this becomes more widespread, it could be "game over" for Russian forces as no amount of mobilization can overcome endemic morale issues and hopelessness.
- The Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister stated 3 sq km was liberated in the Bakhmut area last week, with things going well in Klishchiivka, Kurdiumivka and Ozarianivka.
Avdiivka-Donetsk City area
- The ISW reports geolocated footage from Sept 2 showing Russian advances in Marinka. However, the full 7-min video suggests a single Russian tank pushed past Ukrainian lines, fired some shots, then withdrew after nearly being hit by Ukrainian RPGs and artillery.
- This indicates the front line in Marinka is porous and Ukrainians may be under pressure, but does not confirm Russians control the western outskirts as some claimed.
- There are also reports of Ukrainian gains north of Pavlivka, taking control of a complex that was previously in the "grey zone" between the two sides' defensive lines.
Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border area
- Russian milblogger Wargonzo reports Ukrainians are advancing in the grey zone east of Novoprokopivka towards Ocheretuvate and attacking near Drozhnyanky, potentially opening up a new sector.
- Andrew Perpetua's map shows Ukrainians consolidating control of an area east of Novoprokopivka and small gains pushing back Russians north of Vuhledar between Vuhledar and Novopokrovka.
- Russian sources admit the situation around Robotyne is becoming tense for them, with Ukrainian attacks increasing in scale.
Southern Zaporizhzhia-Kherson area
- Global War Monitor claims Ukrainians advanced 1 km along the road to Kamianske on the Kakhovka Reservoir coastline, adding 1 sq km to the liberated area. If true, this would be significant as the front line has been static there recently.
- Ukrainian artillery destroyed a Russian sabotage/recon unit attempting to cross the Dnipro River in boats near Novokairka in the Kherson region. Partisans also raised a Ukrainian flag in Novokairka.
- There is ongoing activity along the Dnipro River but nothing significant enough to change the mapping.
Wrap up
Jonathan concludes by noting that while there isn't a huge amount of news, things are still happening along the frontlines. He thanks viewers for watching and says he will speak to them again soon.
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