Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"I'm not objective in where I morally stand, but hopefully my mapping is accurate and that's why I compile my mapping from various disparate sources. And I'm not going to lie to you because I'm not going to lie to myself."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:45⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War Frontline Update for 7th January 2024. He apologises that the video is a little late, explaining that he has just finished recording a live stream with Tochny. He found the live stream brilliant with some very knowledgeable people. He hopes to upload the most pertinent parts of the livestream to his channel tomorrow, as a lot of the news will be familiar to his viewers. Jonathan directs viewers who haven't seen his mapping videos before to check out the key at the top of the screen. He warns viewers that this will be the shortest mapping video he's ever recorded due to the volume of content he's produced already, and needing to spend time with his family.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupyansk-Kreminna Front
🎦 00:45-01:03⏩
Jonathan begins in the north-eastern axis, from Kupyansk across to Kreminna. He hasn't had much time to research the context behind the movements, but confirms that there are only two areas to focus on.
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Ukrainian Gains in Sikyivka
🎦 01:03-01:40⏩
Jonathan highlights some gains for the Ukrainians in Sikyivka, acknowledging that this could be due to Russian forces being pushed back slightly, or that the mapping was slightly off, meaning Russian forces were never as far forward as thought. Jonathan suspects that this is a pushback, as he believes there was quite a bit of fighting over this area of woodland, which the Russians did take at one point. To say that the Russians are no longer there would suggest that the Ukrainians have pushed them back.
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Terny-Yampilvika-Zarichna Salient
🎦 01:40-02:15⏩
Jonathan points out that just because there are no changes to the map, it doesn't mean that there isn't any activity. He goes on to highlight that there have been no changes to the Terny-Yampilvika-Zarichna salient over the last 24 hours, which is good news for the Ukrainians. This area has seen some fairly continual gains by the Russians over the last week, and whilst this doesn't mean they won't start again, the lack of gains is good news for the Ukrainians.
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Bakhmut Front
🎦 02:15-03:05⏩
Jonathan notes that there have been no changes to the Bakhmut front either, according to any of the mappers, which again is really good news for the Ukrainians. He believes that the situation at the moment is all about stasis - the Ukrainians are unlikely to be pushing back significantly over the next few months. He acknowledges that there has been a small tactical Ukrainian gain (represented by a blue pin) but doesn't see any major pushes to recapture territory any time soon (except maybe in Dnipro, but he doesn't see that happening either). Jonathan concludes that it's all about stopping the Russians for the time being, as can be seen by the fighting around Avdiivka which has quietened down to more positional fighting. The main advances for the Russians have been in the north on the way to Novobakhmativka along the railway line, but again there have been no changes.
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Russian Gains in Mariinka
🎦 03:05-04:06⏩
Jonathan highlights an area where there have been some changes - the Mariinka area. All the mappers indicate that the Russians have made gains in the "water feature" area (which Jonathan explains means some sort of reservoir or lake). There have also been Russian gains further north in the "piggery" area (an agricultural area with a pig farm that was fought over quite a bit a few months ago). They are now past the farm and moving along the tree line to the west of that agricultural settlement.
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Updates from Suriat Maps and JR
🎦 04:06-05:13⏩
Jonathan reveals that there may be a few changes to the mapping from Suriat Maps since JR updated the map earlier. Jonathan mentions that he was recently on a live stream with Andrew Perpetua (hence why he's on the tip of his tongue). One such change is north of Khrushchivka, where the Russians have made small advances as a result of positional battles. This is in contrast to his earlier statement that there have been no changes to the Bakhmut mapping, although this is a very small gain. There have also been some changes in Vesely, north of Avdiivka, towards the quarry. This is further south than where Jonathan previously stated there were no changes - the Russians are moving down towards the quarry lake area. He acknowledges that whilst these changes are very minimal, Suriat Maps and other mappers agree that the Russian army has increased the buffer zone around Mariinka by advancing north-west of the town. It is expected that the Russian forces will try to take the hill in order to fully secure Mariinka from any Ukrainian attempts to recapture it. This will also allow them to monitor Ukrainian movements around Hryhorivka and Krasnohorivka.
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Analysis of the Topography Around Mariinka
🎦 05:13-06:35⏩
Looking at the topography, Jonathan highlights a hill to the south of Mariinka at 163m, acknowledging that whilst there is a slight gradient, it's pretty much level in other places. He uses the topography tool to demonstrate that there is a slight rise and that it is marginally downhill for the Russians, but doesn't believe this is really a "meaningful" hill from a tactical point of view - nonetheless it does give them an advantage.
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Siuriat Maps Synopsis - Minimal Changes on the Front Line
🎦 06:35-07:57⏩
Jonathan summarises the changes by reiterating that it has been a very quick overview today and he'll go into more detail tomorrow. He provides an overview using the Suriat Maps synopsis:
- Minimal changes on the Ukrainian front over the last three days
- Poor weather conditions (cold, snow, mud and water) have temporarily slowed Russian offensive capabilities
- Recent advances have been the result of positional battles
- A new phase in Avdiivka began a few days ago, with the Russian army focussing on the northern front towards Novobakhmutivka along the railway line, aiming to enter the town through the farms.
- It is becoming more difficult for the Russians to encircle Avdiivka from Stepova.
- Avdiivka is completely destroyed and in the midst of fighting, making it difficult to advance in the open
- Suriat Maps believe that the battle for Avdiivka will be resolved by urban combat, more akin to Soledar than Bakhmut, leading to an eventual collapse of Ukrainian troops who will eventually abandon the town.
- Jonathan is sceptical of this prediction and the language used, believing it to be more of an opinion than objective analysis. He questions Suriat Maps' use of "will", highlighting that this indicates a 90-100% probability, and points out that they appear to "want" Avdiivka to fall.
Jonathan concludes that he is open about the fact that he is not objective in where he morally stands, but hopes that his mapping is accurate. This is why he compiles information from a number of different sources. He is open and honest, and would rather not lie to his viewers (or himself!).
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Wrap Up
🎦 07:57-09:55⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share his content. He is very grateful for the massive support that he continues to receive. He gives a special thank you to Mark Daniels for his support of the channel, and also thanks all his members and those who support him through Buy Me a Coffee and Paypal.
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