Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231019a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"The current results of the offensive, which has been going on for almost 10 days, are in no way worth the losses incurred."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is struggling a bit after the 3-hour livestream the night before. He's never had such bloodshot eyes in his life! The MS is taking its toll but that's not our concern. On to the news...
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 630 Russian personnel lost, fairly significant numbers
- 11 tanks lost, "losing 11 tanks in a day is careless"
- 17 APVs lost
- Claims of renewed attacks in the Avdiivka area
- 39 artillery systems lost, phenomenal numbers
- 4 MLRS lost, seeing footage of these being taken out
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system lost
- 1 aircraft lost, an Su-25, 5th in 10 days, very high
- 1 helicopter lost according to official figures, but...
Berdyansk and Luhansk Airbase Strikes
- Berdyansk was hit, early claims were 9 helicopters taken out
- Official figures stated 6 helicopters lost
- Satellite imagery appears to show 9 burnt out helicopters
- Luhansk also struck, claims of 5 helicopters damaged
- Tatarigami has a good thread analyzing the imagery
- At least 14 helicopters lost between the two strikes
- Helicopters still present at bases after strikes, prime targets
Avdiivka Offensive
- Fighting has picked up again in Avdiivka
- Russians trying to strike in same places, attempting new attacks
- Footage shows Russians losing equipment again
- Russians made some advances to the south in Spartak area
- Area is incredibly well-defended by Ukrainians with tunnels and fortifications
- Russian sources very unhappy with offensive results
- One source states only 12 men left in his company
- Reconnaissance by fire tactics criticized by Andrew Perpetua
Distant Strikes
- Unsuccessful night for Ukrainian air defense per Russian report
- Only 3 of 9 Shahed drones and 1 Kh-59 missile shot down
- Russia launched Iskander-M, S-300 and cruise missiles hitting various targets
- Important that Russia claims military objects hit
- Very difficult to verify what gets hit in Ukraine
- Long list of civilian areas struck and casualties from Andrew Perpetua
- Russians anxious about river crossing, bombing Kherson heavily
- Claims of Ukrainian bridging equipment and boats in the area
Other News
- Russian air defenses active in Rostov Oblast
- Explosions in Sevastopol and Belgorod
- Scott Ritter proven wrong again on Russian EW capabilities
- Top Roscosmos manager suspected of embezzling 600M rubles
- Crimean Bridge remains vital but is now a security burden for Russia
- Ingenuity of Ukraine's military threatens Russia's ability to protect it
Wrap up
Thank you for watching. Please like, subscribe and share. Toodlepips, speak to you soon!
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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