Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"Ukraine is Russia's latest Afghanistan, but on steroids."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:49⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the Ukraine War Frontline Update for 1st March 2024, mentioning that he will do a breaking news video on Alexei Navalny’s funeral later on. Jonathan thanks JR for the mapping and mentions he’s trying to send him a hoodie.
Return to top⤴️
📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Frontline Situation
🎦 00:49-04:35⏩
Jonathan observes no changes on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna frontline for a second day. The ISW highlights heavy positional fighting in areas like Sienkivka, Tabaivka, Novoselivske, Makiivka, Lyman, Torske, and Terny. A Ukrainian Brigade spokesman reveals that Russian forces have increased glide bomb strikes (10-15 per day) in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. Jonathan expresses concern over the volume of glide bombs being used by Russia along the frontline (footage of six jets over Donetsk suggests up to 30 bombs per sortie) and the impact on Ukrainian resistance, civilian infrastructure, and infrastructure capabilities. He believes Russian air superiority (through the use of glide bombs), rather than a lack of Ukrainian artillery, is key to their success, preventing the Ukrainians from holding ground. Jonathan feels the provision of air defence systems to the frontline, despite the risks, is crucial to counteract the Russian air threat. He states that Ukrainian forces need to be more proactive and shoot down Russian aircraft to reduce the number of sorties. Jonathan adds that this is crucial to protect areas such as Avdiivka, which has endured heavy bombing.
Return to top⤴️
Seversk Frontline Situation: Ukrainian Gains in Brestova
🎦 04:35-06:33⏩
On the Seversk front, near Bilohorivka and Yakovlivka, some Ukrainian gains in Brestova are noted. Jonathan questions the accuracy of Surovikin maps which suggests the Ukrainians have counterattacked, highlighting that the mapping tends to favour Russian gains and often has to be corrected. He advises caution and suggests it’s more likely that the mapping was an overestimate. Jonathan recommends watching Andrew Perpetua's Friday night live stream for more information on the situation. Minor gains by Ukrainian forces, according to Andrew Perpetua, are also reported in the Sakko I Vanzetti village area. Further south, Russia appears to be holding slightly more ground in the Vazhukivka area, but the gains are minor.
Return to top⤴️
Bakhmut Situation: Russian Advances West of Bakhmut
🎦 06:33-10:09⏩
West of Bakhmut, Jonathan notes significant Russian advances in Ivanivske, highlighting discrepancies between Surovikin maps, Deep State, and Andrew Perpetua in depicting Russian control of the area. He reiterates his caution with Surovikin maps and suggests a more conservative approach to its interpretations. However, the situation is worrying for Ukrainian forces who need to maintain control of Ivanivske to create a buffer zone for Chasiv Yar, which will likely come under intense pressure. Jonathan questions the sustainability of the Russian offensive, despite acknowledging the advantage provided by their air power (through the use of glide bombs). He speculates that if Ukrainian forces can continue to attrit the Russian Air Force at its current rate (another plane possibly shot down this morning, following three yesterday), then Russia will not be able to maintain the offensive tempo due to a lack of planes and pilots. Without air superiority, Jonathan questions whether Russia has sufficient equipment (IFVs and tanks), given the significant losses over the past 48 hours, to sustain offensives along the frontline, retake the bridgehead on the Dnipro River, and counterattack in areas like Robotyne, Velyka Novosilka, Novomykolaivka, Marinka, and Krasnohorivka. Despite exacting heavy losses on the Russians, Jonathan acknowledges Ukrainian forces are under significant pressure. However, he suggests the situation needs to be assessed by comparing the relative losses of both sides. Jonathan highlights that despite heavy losses, Ukrainian forces are fighting back in Avdiivka, with footage showing mass Russian casualties in the area. Despite this, he is doubtful whether Russia can take Mykolaiv and Odessa or advance on Kharkiv, Kupyansk, and Kramatorsk, given the amount of territory they would need to capture and the equipment losses they are sustaining. Jonathan believes that Russian equipment and personnel losses will eventually limit their offensive capabilities. He points to increasing public dissent within Russia (protests at Navalny's funeral) as evidence of waning public support for the war and suggests that, in the long term, Ukraine is in a strong position. The arrival of artillery ammunition, 100 APCs from Bulgaria, and additional military aid demonstrates a unified European effort to support Ukraine. Jonathan believes that if Ukraine can address its “boots on the ground” problem, then their long-term position is strong. He concludes that Russia is currently at their most dangerous and does not believe they can significantly improve on their current situation. Jonathan believes the next month will be crucial in determining the success or failure of the Russian offensive.
Return to top⤴️
Avdiivka Situation: Heavy Fighting and Ukrainian Counterattacks
🎦 10:09-16:50⏩
Jonathan highlights a tweet by The Kyiv Independent, which suggests Ukrainian forces have partially retaken Krasnohorivka, but acknowledges this has come at a cost to Ukrainian equipment, quoting Greg who estimates that Ukraine lost 90% of 100 vehicles sent to support the defence of Avdiivka. He analyses the situation further by quoting Ukrainian General Tarnavsky who describes the situation as ‘dynamic’ and confirms Ukrainian forces are counterattacking, establishing new firing positions, and observation posts. Tarnavsky claims that Ukrainian forces repelled 25 Russian attacks, killing or wounding 319 soldiers, and destroying 36 pieces of equipment. Jonathan shifts focus to Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut, and the deployment of Russian reserves to the area. He quotes Ilya Yevlash, spokesman for the Ukrainian Tavris Group of Forces, who states that Russia has amassed a large force near Chasiv Yar and is conducting a powerful offensive in the direction of the city. Jonathan observes this is why the Russians are pushing hard towards Ivanivske, reiterating his belief that they are throwing everything they have at Avdiivka, Ivanivske, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykolaivka as part of an “all or nothing” offensive. He reiterates his belief that it will be very difficult for Russian forces to maintain momentum if they continue to take such heavy losses in men and equipment and that Russia will struggle to maintain the tempo of operations if they are forced to fight through urban areas. Jonathan refers to preparations undertaken to strengthen Chasiv Yar’s defences, even during the battle for Bakhmut. He highlights that the geography (marshes, rivers, hills, and forests) make the area particularly challenging to attack. Chasiv Yar is also protected by minefields and anti-tank barriers, making any attack even more difficult. Finally, Jonathan concludes by saying that it is going to be difficult for the Russians to take Chasiv Yar but that they are having some success in the area, although not on the scale of previous offensives. He observes that Russian attempts to advance in other areas, such as Klishchiivka, appear to have stalled. Russian counterattacks around Robotyne, Velyka Novosilka, Novomykolaivka, and Krasnohorivka are being hampered by high casualties and equipment losses.
Return to top⤴️
Donetsk Frontline Situation: Fighting in Berdychi and Olivka
🎦 16:50-20:07⏩
Jonathan focuses on the situation south of Avdiivka, observing that Surovikin maps suggests Russian forces have captured large swathes of territory near Berdychi and Olivka. He notes reports of a Ukrainian counterattack in Olivka but states that Surovikin maps remains bullish in its assessment of Russian territorial control. He observes that Deep State map, however, suggests Ukrainian forces are counterattacking and that the Russian frontline is actually much further east, behind Tonenke. Jonathan is unsure which map is most accurate and questions whether Surovikin maps is correct in its assessment of the frontline. He acknowledges that Ukrainian forces are under considerable pressure in the area.
Return to top⤴️
Orlivka Situation: Conflicting Reports of Control
🎦 20:07-20:47⏩
Jonathan continues his analysis of the situation south of Avdiivka, referring to comments by Colonel General Syrskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, who confirmed Russian forces had briefly captured Orlivka but were subsequently pushed back. Jonathan acknowledges it is possible that Surovikin maps is correct and Russian forces have since counterattacked, retaking Orlivka. Further analysis of Surovikin maps suggests Ukrainian forces are attacking Russian positions in Pidstepne. Jonathan reiterates his scepticism over the accuracy of Surovikin maps, pointing out that the Ukrainian Tavris Group of Forces have denied Russian claims to have captured Berdychi. He concludes that the situation in the area remains unclear, but suggests Surovikin maps may be overestimating the extent of Russian control.
Return to top⤴️
Western Donetsk Frontline Situation: Positional Fighting Continues
🎦 20:47-24:45⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian military blogger has claimed Russian forces advanced southwest of Avdiivka, near Novoselivka, confirming reports released yesterday. He acknowledges that Surovikin maps could be correct in its assessment of Russian gains southeast of Novoselivka, in the plantation areas. However, Jonathan believes the situation on the ground is likely to be a mixed bag, with Ukrainian forces potentially repelling Russian attacks. The ability of Ukrainian forces to hold the line will depend on whether they have sufficient ammunition and equipment. Jonathan mentions claims that General Syrskyi has been provided with as much ammunition and equipment (including armoured vehicles) as he needs, which might explain why Russian forces are struggling to push further west. Jonathan believes Ukrainian forces will be able to take advantage of the terrain (the river and the bluff) to slow or halt the Russian advance, making control of the area to the north crucial for any future Russian offensive operations in the west. Jonathan reports that Surovikin maps suggests Ukrainian forces are no longer in Pidstepne, contradicting reports from yesterday which indicated the Ukrainians had a foothold in the settlement. In a tweet, Surovikin maps confirms little change on the frontline over the past two weeks, acknowledging that while Russian forces managed to recapture the bridgehead west of Kozachi Laheri, they continue to experience difficulties in clearing the bridgehead, with fighting continuing in Krynky. Jonathan questions the accuracy of Surovikin maps and believes it is likely Russian forces control the area. He bases his assumption on the fact that there have been no reports of Ukrainian activity near Pidstepne for over two months.
Return to top⤴️
Kherson Situation: Renewed Focus on Antonivsky Bridge Area
🎦 24:45-27:15⏩
Jonathan references the latest ISW report, which states that positional fighting continues around Krynky and the Dacha areas, near the Antonivsky Road Bridge. Jonathan is surprised that the ISW has mentioned the Antonivsky Bridge area, given the lack of reporting over the past few months. Jonathan then refers to the recent Ukrainian Special Forces raid on Russian positions on the Tendrivska Spit (south of the Kinburn Peninsula). The ISW confirms that Russian forces repelled the Ukrainian assault, inflicting heavy losses (between 4 and 20 Ukrainian soldiers killed). It is believed three of the four boats used in the raid were destroyed and one Ukrainian soldier captured. Jonathan believes that while Ukraine will continue to test Russian defences in the area, the risks are high and unlikely to yield any significant tactical or operational advantage. He concludes by observing that the use of drones and other surveillance technology by both sides makes it difficult to achieve surprise and has led to the current stalemate, which requires forces to resort to grinding attacks to gain ground. Jonathan believes the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv was an anomaly and that any future counteroffensive is likely to face greater challenges and will struggle to replicate that success.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 27:15-27:54⏩
Jonathan concludes by asking viewers for their thoughts on his analysis and whether they think his assessment of the situation is accurate. He finishes, as always, by saying he needs a cup of tea and signs off.
Return to top⤴️
