Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The fight for truth is on."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:25⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another update, apologising for the need to re-record due to technical issues and introduces the focus as a Ukraine war news update, specifically on hits and losses.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff Figures for Russian Losses (28/10/2024)
🎦 00:25-04:20⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest General Staff figures for Russian losses, noting incredibly high numbers:
- Personnel: 1,310 (above the usual 1,000-1,300 range)
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 121 (a new record)
- Tanks: 19
- Armoured personnel carriers (APCs): 17
- Artillery systems: 58
Jonathan observes that the high number of vehicle and fuel tank losses could be linked to their use in assaults and speculates on the potential reasons behind the use of tanks as troop carriers. He also highlights the significant loss of artillery systems (58 in one day) and cites a Twitter contact who suggests a change in Russian behaviour, specifically a slowdown in retrieving artillery from stockpiles, which Jonathan will elaborate on later.
Return to top⤴️
Andrew Perpetua’s visually confirmed loss list (27/10/2024-28/10/2024)
🎦 04:20-06:14⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed losses from Andrew Perpetua's list, noting the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is approximately 1.5:1 overall, but closer to 2.5:1 or 3:1 for combat losses, reflecting Russia's greater loss of more strategically valuable equipment.
- Ukrainian losses: Include several boats, Howitzers, IFVs (all Soviet-era), APCs (mostly Soviet-era), MRAPS (mainly Western or indigenous), and a Turkish Kirpi MRAP.
- Russian losses: Comprise an electronic warfare system (Groza-04N), engineering vehicles, artillery (including older models like D20s and D30s), tanks (T-80s and T-72s), mine rollers, infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-2s, BMP-3s, and BTR-82s), APCs, trucks, civilian vehicles, ATVs and quad bikes.
North Korean Troop Deployment and Casualties
🎦 06:14-08:12⏩
Jonathan discusses claims of North Korean troop involvement and casualties, approaching the information cautiously:
- 7 North Korean soldiers reported killed by Ukrainian forces in Kursk, 1 surrendered.
- Contradictory reports suggest North Korean troops already present in Donetsk, potentially involved in rocket launch sites or learning from Russian operations.
- Ukrainian representative to the UN states 12,000 North Korean soldiers are training at 5 Russian training grounds and that deployment to Ukraine violates international law.
- The representative anticipates 4,500 North Korean troops will be deployed to the frontlines in November.
Jonathan acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding these reports, emphasizing the need for further verification.
Return to top⤴️
Treatment of Conscripted Troops from Luhansk and Donetsk
🎦 08:12-14:23⏩
Jonathan cites a ChrisO_wiki thread highlighting poor treatment of conscripted soldiers from Luhansk and Donetsk by Russian forces:
- Used as "meat," denied leave, forced to rely on the black market for supplies and buy vehicles.
- Subjected to "meat storms" with high casualty rates, according to a pro-war but critical Russian Telegram channel (Philologist in Ambush).
- The channel criticizes the mistreatment of LPR/DPR soldiers, specifically those in the 7th Luhansk Brigade.
- Anecdotal evidence suggests artillerymen are being sent into assaults due to equipment shortages, supporting earlier claims of a slowdown in artillery supply.
- Discrimination reported between soldiers from Ukrainian-occupied territories, the Russian Federation, and convict units (Storm Z, Storm V).
Russian APC Destroyed by Ukrainian Tank - Survivor Story
🎦 14:23-15:20⏩
Jonathan revisits the incident where a Russian APC mistakenly approached a Ukrainian tank, resulting in its destruction:
- Highlights that this has happened on three separate occasions.
- In the first incident, a 19-year-old Russian crew member survived.
- The Ukrainian forces rescued and treated the survivor, who will likely be part of a future prisoner exchange.
- Jonathan emphasizes the significance of the survivor being abandoned by his comrades, further illustrating the disregard for the lives of Russian soldiers.
Russian Soldier Sent Back to Front Lines Despite Injuries
🎦 15:20-16:33⏩
Jonathan recounts the harrowing experience of a 28-year-old Russian soldier:
- Conscripted on July 11th, sent into combat near Turetsk on August 13th.
- Injured on August 19th, received surgery but no follow-up care.
- Returned to the front lines on August 31st.
- Severely wounded again on September 1st.
- Subjected to "basement treatment" as punishment following a disagreement with commanders.
- Released after his wife contacted the prosecutor's office.
- Despite severe leg injuries, he was forced back to the front lines on October 29th.
Jonathan questions the value of the signing bonus in light of the horrific treatment and injuries endured by the soldier.
Return to top⤴️
Current Battlefield Assessment
🎦 16:33-18:31⏩
Jonathan offers his assessment of the current battlefield situation:
- Cites Shashank Joshi (The Economist) expressing concern over the rapid pace of Ukrainian territorial losses.
- Acknowledges Russia's territorial gains but emphasizes their unsustainable casualty rates, supported by various data sources.
- Believes Russia's ability to replenish its forces is reaching its limit.
- Speculates that North Korea's involvement is crucial for Russia to sustain the war effort.
- Highlights the effectiveness of sanctions in creating significant economic pressure on Russia, contradicting claims to the contrary.
- Notes Ukraine's need for additional manpower, citing their recent recruitment drive for 160,000 new soldiers.
Confirmation of Ukrainian Su-24M Loss (2022)
🎦 18:31-18:50⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions the confirmation, with evidence, of a Ukrainian Su-24M being shot down near Snake Island in 2022. He reassures viewers that this is old news and the crew survived after ejecting.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian MRAP Survives Mine Strikes
🎦 18:50-19:45⏩
Jonathan shares footage of a Ukrainian MRAP (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected) vehicle driving at high speed over a mined area:
- The MRAP hits three mines but continues driving.
- Jonathan speculates that the vehicle's speed may have caused the mines to detonate behind it, minimizing damage.
- He expresses admiration for the vehicle's resilience and the skill of the driver.
Possible S-300/S-400 Destruction in Crimea
🎦 19:45-20:56⏩
Jonathan reports on satellite evidence suggesting the destruction or damage of a Russian S-300 or S-400 air defence system in Razyanivka, Crimea:
- The strike likely occurred on October 27th or 28th.
- Images show the impact site and aftermath, but the extent of the damage is unclear.
- The air defence system has been removed from the site, suggesting either complete destruction or relocation for repairs.
- Jonathan reiterates that information regarding such strikes is not always readily available, as it often relies on satellite imagery analysis rather than real-time reporting.
Fires and Potential Sabotage in Moscow
🎦 20:56-21:55⏩
Jonathan details a series of fires in Moscow, suggesting potential connections to the war:
- Elektrozoite plant fire: An electronics plant, potentially linked to military production.
- Ushakov Academy of Water Sports fire: An ironic target, given its name.
- Research institute specializing in weaponry and missile development: The most significant fire, likely a result of sabotage or a drone strike. Local sources indicate substantial damage to the facility.
Russian Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 21:55-23:44⏩
Jonathan reports on the latest Russian drone and missile attacks:
- 43 drones launched, with 17 intercepted, 23 neutralized by electronic warfare, and 3 returning to Russia after being spoofed.
- A concerted attack on Odessa involved ballistic missiles and aerial bombs.
- Two ballistic missiles were launched, with no confirmation on whether they were intercepted.
- Eight Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles (not bombs) were launched, with two confirmed interceptions.
- Jonathan emphasizes the importance of using precise terminology when discussing missile and bomb types to avoid confusion.
- The governor of Odessa reports at least 10 missiles of various types targeting the region within 25 minutes.
Russian Missile Strike on Residential Building in Kharkiv
🎦 23:44-25:07⏩
Jonathan expresses outrage at a Russian missile strike on a residential building in Kharkiv:
- Describes the attack as a war crime and a flagrant violation of international law.
- Notes the extensive damage, with floors 1-6 destroyed.
- Highlights the ongoing rescue efforts, with reports of people trapped under the rubble.
- Shares President Zelenskyy's video of the destroyed building.
- Provides updated casualty figures: 34 injured, 2 dead (including an 11-year-old child).
- Conveys the horror of the situation, emphasizing the human cost of the war.
Ukrainian Drone Attack on Berdyansk
🎦 25:07-26:02⏩
Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian drone attack on the port city of Berdyansk:
- Seven attack drones were involved, with conflicting reports on the number shot down.
- The Russian-installed governor illegally shared footage of a Ukrainian drone, revealing sensitive information.
- Officials in Berdyansk confirmed damage to homes and a sealed-off port area, suggesting successful strikes on port infrastructure.
Czech-Supplied Mi-24V Helicopter and its Successes
🎦 26:02-26:47⏩
Jonathan expresses admiration for a Czech-supplied Mi-24V helicopter:
- Notes its distinctive "H.R. Giger-esque" paint scheme.
- Mentions claims that the helicopter has downed at least nine drones, including six Shahed-136s, as evidenced by kill markings (though these were not visible in the footage).
Poland Requests Permission to Shoot Down Russian Missiles over Ukraine
🎦 26:47-27:39⏩
Jonathan discusses Poland's request to the United States for permission to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukrainian territory:
- Highlights the US Helsinki Commission's support for Poland's request.
- Notes similar reports regarding Romania potentially receiving permission to engage targets in its airspace.
- Expresses hope that these initiatives will come to fruition.
Rumours of a Russian Offensive in Zaporizhzhia
🎦 27:39-28:02⏩
Jonathan reports on persistent rumours of an impending Russian offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region:
- Mentions that Russia has conducted training exercises in occupied territories.
- Notes the planned use of armoured vehicles in two specific settlements (locations not disclosed).
- Expresses a degree of skepticism given the repeated nature of these rumours, but acknowledges their potential validity.
EU Criticizes Ukraine’s Wartime Media Consolidation
🎦 28:02-29:22⏩
Jonathan discusses the European Union's criticism of Ukraine's wartime consolidation of TV channels into a single state-run "telethon":
- Acknowledges the initial view of the telethon as a legitimate response to Russian aggression.
- Notes accusations of media monopolization and suppression of dissent.
- Highlights journalists' complaints about a lack of transparency throughout the war.
- Presents both sides of the argument: the need for government control of narratives during wartime versus the importance of a free press and government accountability.
US Congressman Suggests Potential NATO Intervention Against North Korean Troops
🎦 29:22-30:05⏩
Jonathan discusses a statement by US Congressman Mike Turner, suggesting potential NATO intervention against North Korean troops in Ukraine:
- Turner, the House Intelligence Committee Chairman, proposes that US and NATO forces should directly engage North Korean troops if they enter Ukrainian territory.
- Jonathan interprets "direct military intervention" as potentially involving US and NATO missile strikes.
- He acknowledges Turner's statement as a significant escalation in rhetoric, even coming from a generally supportive Republican congressman.
South Korean Intelligence on North Korean Military Presence in Russia
🎦 30:05-31:21⏩
Jonathan shares new intelligence from a South Korean government official regarding North Korean military presence in Russia:
- Approximately 11,000 North Korean military personnel are in Russia.
- 3,000 are undergoing training in the western part of the country.
- Some may be deployed to the Kursk region, others to Donbas.
- Seoul cannot confirm if any have participated in hostilities or suffered casualties.
- Reports indicate North Korean troops are disguised in Russian uniforms and equipped with Russian weapons to conceal their presence.
- The contingent includes high-ranking generals and officers, but the majority are infantry officers.
- It is also reported that Kyiv is receiving weapons from South Korea indirectly via third parties, such as the United States.
- South Korea's Defense Minister states the importance of sending observers and analysts to the conflict zone.
Praise for the BBC and BBC Verify
🎦 31:21-33:37⏩
Jonathan expresses admiration for the BBC and its fact-checking service, BBC Verify:
- Acknowledges criticisms of the BBC from both the left and right but believes it generally maintains a balanced, central position.
- Praises the BBC's commitment to fighting disinformation, aligning with his own values.
- Highlights a BBC promotional video emphasizing the organization's dedication to verifying facts and combating misinformation.
Halloween Pumpkin Update
🎦 33:37-35:01⏩
Jonathan lightheartedly provides an update on his Halloween pumpkin carving:
- Showcases his pumpkin, carved with a menacing face, mentioning the effort involved.
- Jokes about its quality, stating it's "not his best" due to challenges posed by his multiple sclerosis.
- Shares his plans to carve smaller pumpkins with a Ukrainian trident symbol.
Wrap up
🎦 35:01-35:06⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support and signs off.
Return to top⤴️
