Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"Both sides are already reporting it. I will release the information I collected too. There is anyway a delay of this information, therefore does not compromise OPSEC."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest Ukraine General Staff figures for Russian losses, with the usual caveats. Key losses include:
- 17 tanks
- 24 armored personnel vehicles
- 980 liquidated personnel
- 19 artillery systems
- 1 MLRS
- 37 drones
- 7 cruise missiles (from two nights ago)
- 33 vehicles and fuel tanks
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Putting Russian losses in context
Oryx visually confirmed 32 pieces of Russian equipment lost over the last day compared to 8 for Ukraine. This 4:1 ratio in Russia's disfavor could be even higher due to Ukraine's tight OPSEC on the Zaporizhzhia front line. The Ukrainian figures show they are trying to eliminate Russia's artillery capability.
Return to top⤴️
Berdyansk under Russian control
The Ukrainian General Staff reports the temporarily captured city of Berdyansk is under Russian control. The occupiers have closed part of the city around the morgue, where a cluster of sanitary and refrigerator cards was noted, suggesting high Russian casualties either from the front line or from Ukrainian strikes on troop accumulations in the city.
Return to top⤴️
Footage of Russian equipment losses
Recent footage shows:
- A Russian Grad MLRS getting destroyed, possibly by an airburst
- A destroyed Russian Tor-M2 air defense system crew compartment after a Ukrainian drone strike. Claims that all crew except the cameraman died, representing a loss of expertise.
- A Russian artillery convoy destroyed by Ukrainian drone-directed fire south of the Kakhovka Reservoir in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which would be a huge loss
Iris-T SLM not destroyed
Contrary to Russian claims, the German Iris-T SLM air defense system was not destroyed by a Lancet drone as claimed. The footage was edited in a misleading way. The system is apparently fine and working, with the drone exploding near but not on it.
Return to top⤴️
Russian use of same failed attack footage
For the third day, Russians are releasing footage of the same failed Ukrainian attack rather than showing the 40+ other Ukrainian attacks since then.
Return to top⤴️
Value of Western equipment
Recent videos show the value of Western equipment like the Mastiff MRAP and Bradley IFV in saving Ukrainian lives compared to older Soviet vehicles. Ukraine has also been operating effectively at night, which would be difficult without the Bradleys. This equipment gives Ukraine a better chance of success while saving lives.
Return to top⤴️
Front line update
An unconfirmed report from a Ukrainian soldier claims they had a very successful assault, killing many Russians, capturing equipment, and suffering only 3 lightly wounded. The Russians were reportedly fleeing and afraid to fight. The only Ukrainian footage seen shows a lightning assault on Russian trench line positions by Ukrainian Humvees. There are also reports of Ukrainian successes north and south of Bakhmut, particularly around Yahidne and Klishchiivka. According to one analyst, in 24 hours the Ukrainians advanced almost a mile around Bakhmut, a distance that took the Russians a year.
Return to top⤴️
Kakhovka Dam collapse update
- The reservoir behind the Kakhovka Dam is now completely drained
- Dead bodies and debris are washing up along the Black Sea coast
- The North Crimean Canal that supplied water to Crimea is empty. Although Russia filled Crimean reservoirs in anticipation, this will be a massive long-term problem.
- Russians stole Ukrainian footage of a Ukrainian drone delivering water to a stranded family and claimed it as their own, while in reality they are providing little to no help to flood victims in occupied areas.
Shoigu moving to control Wagner
It appears Putin and Shoigu want to centralize control of private military companies like Wagner under their command. As of July 1, all volunteer fighters for Russia must sign a contract with the Russian Federation, including Wagner. This could exacerbate tensions with Prigozhin and further undermine the Russian military campaign if he resists or pulls Wagner out of the war.
Return to top⤴️
Reminder of Russian brutality
As a reminder of Russian brutality, State Duma member Pyotr Tolstoy was quoted as saying "We will burn European humanitarians with napalm." Jonathan asks pro-Russian voices if they enjoy defending this position.
Return to top⤴️
Military aid
- Ukraine is now using a captured Russian T-90A tank
- Canada announced $370 million in military aid including ammunition, training and air-to-air missiles
- The UK is providing £16 million in humanitarian aid for Kakhovka Dam victims
- China is selling armored vehicles to Chechnya as a loophole to arm Russia
- Russia is still producing "Frankenstein" vehicles mounting naval weapons
- Belarus quietly sent Russia over 130,000 tons of munitions in the first year of the war
Sanctions impacting Russian defense industry
According to interviews with Russian defense industry workers, Russia is facing severe shortages of electronic components due to sanctions. This has led to:
- Reuse of obsolete components and PCBs
- Cannibalization of parts from other devices
- Use of inferior Chinese substitutes with defect rates up to 40%
- Worsening working conditions and loss of employee benefits
- Use of outdated software and equipment
The shortage is causing longer lead times for repairs and production. Most workers see sanctions making things worse and highlight the complete lack of certain components. As one interviewee said, "Sanctions work, no matter what propaganda tells us."
Return to top⤴️
Geopolitics roundup
- Swedish company Essity is exiting the Russian market after public pressure
- Zelensky met with Canadian PM Trudeau who pledged continued support. Zelensky cheekily said Ukraine's counteroffensive is in a "positive mood" and to "pass that on to Putin."
- French President Macron called on Iran to stop supporting Russia in the war, though this is unlikely to change Iran's stance after the collapse of the nuclear deal
Wrap up
Jonathan apologizes for the length of the video but there is a lot happening at the moment. He appreciates everyone's support.
Return to top⤴️
