Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"We are looking at the monetary collapse of Russia. Russians brought their money to Cyprus, but the golden passports have been withdrawn."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another update and mentions that there will be more than one part to this update as well as a further Syria update. He starts with the General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day (29/11/2024).
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:19-01:34⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily Russian losses from the Ukrainian General Staff, noting that the claimed personnel losses of 1,740 are "phenomenally high" and "insane". He compares this figure to other high daily losses, observing that on 28/11/2024 the figure was 2,030. He hypothesises that the losses could be down to a successful counterattack by Ukrainian forces in the Chesvyar area, although notes that he has seen no confirmation of this. He analyses the losses from Andrew Perpetua's list and observes that whilst the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian personnel losses is 4:1, the combat vehicle losses are only slightly higher than Ukraine's.
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Ukrainian Losses
🎦 01:35-02:40⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian losses from Andrew Perpetua's list from 29/11/2024, noting there's nothing significant to report.
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Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 02:41-04:15⏩
Jonathan reviews the Russian equipment losses in detail from Andrew Perpetua's list and questions whether Russia is struggling to field enough tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, given the large number of "civilian" vehicles on the list. He also wonders if footage of a larger number of these types of vehicles has become available and has been included in the list as they have been used in combat.
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Russian Personnel Losses - Donetsk
🎦 04:16-05:06⏩
The Deputy Commander of the 9th Assault Brigade of the 51st Army of the Russian Federation, Colonel Alexander Lebedev, was reported as eliminated in the Donetsk region.
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Media Confirmed Russian Deaths
🎦 05:07-06:01⏩
Jonathan reports that Media have identified 81,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine based on a very strict criteria involving analysis of social media/obituaries and other methods. He is surprised by how high the figure has become, noting that this is a conservative estimate, does not include DPR/LPR troops or foreign mercenaries, and in reality is likely to be double this figure.
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Russian Deserters
🎦 06:02-07:07⏩
Jonathan highlights a video shared by Tim White of the 810th Marine Brigade (Sevastopol Naval Infantry Brigade) social media page which he describes as anecdotal, but includes numerous requests to help find missing marines or reports of them missing - all in the space of a month. He notes that this unit was involved in the failed offensive on Krinky in the Kherson region and were "absolutely hammered" and have been similarly targeted in the Kursk region.
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Ukrainian Deserters
🎦 07:08-08:03⏩
Jonathan reports that since February 2022 over 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been charged under Ukraine's desertion laws according to Ukraine's general prosecutors office. He notes that although some have since returned to their units, this is indicative of a wider problem for both sides, given that the war is horrific and death is a very real possibility for soldiers on both sides.
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Ukrainian Strike - S400 Crimea
🎦 08:04-08:32⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian military and analysts are claiming a successful strike on an S-400 in Crimea.
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Ukrainian Strike - 64N6 Radar Kursk
🎦 08:33-09:22⏩
RBC Ukraine are reporting that a Ukrainian TACMS strike has destroyed a Russian 64N6 Big Bird radar in the Kursk region. Jonathan explains that this is a significant loss as the radar has an operational range of 300-400km and can track 200 targets simultaneously.
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Impact of Sanctions on Russian Military
🎦 09:23-09:35⏩
Jonathan questions whether Russia can replace the military equipment it has lost in Ukraine due to the impact of sanctions.
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Ukrainian Strike - Ivan Gren Warship (Tuapse)
🎦 09:36-09:58⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine may have struck the Russian Ivan Gren warship in the port of Tuapse, but this is yet to be confirmed.
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Ukrainian Drone Strike - BUK-M3
🎦 09:59-10:39⏩
Footage has emerged showing a Ukrainian drone successfully taking out a moving Russian Buk-M3 with two small IEDs. Jonathan is impressed by the skill involved in hitting a moving target and notes this as the reason the system was probably listed as abandoned, but was in fact severely damaged.
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Russian Friendly Fire - Belgorod
🎦 10:40-11:01⏩
Jonathan reports on an incident where Russian forces in Belgorod shot down one of their own drones, mistaking it for a Ukrainian drone, and notes that this is not the first time this has happened.
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Ukrainian 225th Separate Assault Battalion - Kursk
🎦 11:02-11:27⏩
Jonathan reports on footage from the Ukrainian 225th Separate Assault Battalion showing them destroying Russian equipment and personnel on a highway in the Kursk region.
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Ukrainian Partisans - Rilsk (Kursk)
🎦 11:28-11:58⏩
Ukrainian partisans have destroyed a car full of Russian drones in Rilsk in the Kursk region. Jonathan observes that this is significant as it happened close to the front lines.
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Mapping Update
🎦 11:59-12:00⏩
Jonathan notes that he needs to do a mapping update.
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Drone and Missile Strikes - Overnight 29/11/2024
🎦 12:01-13:23⏩
Jonathan reports that there were fewer drone attacks on Ukraine overnight on 29/11/2024 (only 10). Ukraine shot down 8 of them, an 80% success rate, although Jonathan notes that the low numbers involved could easily result in statistical anomalies and the percentage is actually lower than recent figures. There was a power failure in Berdyansk last night (Zaporizhia Oblast), but the cause is unconfirmed, although Russian sources claim a drone was shot down despite the lack of air raid sirens or evidence of air defence activity. There are reports of gunfire on the south coast of Crimea this morning, potentially air defence activity although there are no further details at this time.
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Drone Strike - Dagestan
🎦 13:24-13:38⏩
Jonathan reports on a drone attack on Kaspiysk in Dagestan. The Head of the Southern Republic (Russia) confirmed attempts to damage objects although there were no casualties. The cause is unconfirmed, although some suspect internal disputes whilst others believe it was a Ukrainian attack.
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Atlas Oil Depot (Kamensky, Rostov) Update
🎦 13:39-14:46⏩
Jonathan gives an update on the Atlas Oil Depot in Kamensky in the Rostov region which was attacked by Ukraine (possibly on 27/11/2024) and has been burning since, despite Russian claims that no damage was caused. He notes some conflicting reports circulating on social media as to whether the fire has been extinguished or not and shares updates from Tim White.
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Russian Air Defence Shoots Down Russian AN-2
🎦 14:47-16:10⏩
Jonathan reports on an incident where a civilian Russian AN-2 aircraft was shot at by Russian air defences whilst flying over an oil refinery in Bashkortostan. Jonathan had previously made comments about the dangers of flying small aircraft over Russia, especially near oil refineries because of the risks from jumpy Russian air defence crews and a viewer had commented that his "crystal ball" had been correct. The pilot was unharmed, although the aircraft suffered damage.
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Syria Update - Aleppo
🎦 16:11-20:44⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the situation in Aleppo which appears to have fallen to rebel forces. He cautions that this is a complex situation with a variety of factions involved in the fighting. He shows a map showing the areas controlled by the Assad Regime (pink), Rebel groups (white), Kurdish groups (yellow), Turkish backed groups (green) and ISIS enclaves (black). He shares a comment from someone called Thomas who says that there is "no love lost" between regular Syrians and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group who are in control of Aleppo and that "to the vast majority of the Syrian people, Assad is a bigger evil by a long shot". Jonathan explains that whilst the HTS might not be popular, this highlights how much Syrians want Assad gone. He notes that Hama could be the next city to fall, given the speed at which the situation is changing, and shares an update showing that a number of villages north of Hama have been captured in recent hours and the strategically important towns of Khan Sheikhoun and Murek are now in rebel hands. He shares comments and observations from other Twitter users about the gravity of the situation and its implications.
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F-16s in Action
🎦 20:45-21:16⏩
Jonathan circles back to mention that Ukrainian F-16s were scrambled to intercept Russian missiles the other night (28/11/2024), despite the poor weather, and had some success in intercepting the missiles.
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Syria Update - Russian Airstrikes on Aleppo & Idlib
🎦 21:17-22:09⏩
Jonathan reports that Aleppo has been hit by heavy Russian airstrikes in response to the rebel offensive.
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Syria Update - Syrian Army Retreats From Aleppo
🎦 22:10-23:29⏩
The Syrian Arab Army have announced that they have retreated from Aleppo to prepare for a counter offensive after suffering heavy losses. They admitted that rebels had infiltrated most of the city on 27/11/2024. Rebel forces have captured a significant amount of equipment and ammunition, including Grad and 130mm M46 artillery, T-72 tanks, ZSU-23-4 Shilka self propelled anti-aircraft guns and other equipment.
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Syria Update - Russia Unable to Support Assad
🎦 23:30-24:13⏩
Jonathan discusses how Russia is unable to support the Assad regime due to having its airpower tied up in Ukraine and shares comments from analysts.
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Russian General Charged
🎦 24:14-25:23⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian General, Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov, has been charged in absentia for ordering the missile strike on a theatre in Chernihiv in August 2023. He believes the attack was actually on a theatre in Mariupol and notes how horrific it was, given that the word "children" was written in large white letters outside.
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Ukrainian Reinforcements
🎦 25:24-25:28⏩
Ukrainian forces are to receive reinforcements in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo directions.
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New Commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces
🎦 25:29-26:23⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelensky has appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapati as the new commander of Ukraine's ground forces, replacing Oleksandr Syrskyi. This move has been well received by military analysts who rate him highly.
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New Deputy Commander in Chief of Ukrainian Armed Forces
🎦 26:24-26:43⏩
Colonel Oleh Apostol has been promoted to Deputy Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Jonathan describes him as the "heroic leader of the elite 95th Airborne".
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Russian Economy Update - The Rouble
🎦 26:44-29:19⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Russian economy and notes that the rouble has entered freefall and is now predominantly a black market currency. Russia has intervened by banning the trading of the rouble on the foreign exchange markets and introducing currency restrictions. This gives the appearance of stability, but Jonathan warns that this is a facade, and that Russia is facing economic collapse. He explains what is meant by "freefall", explaining that this occurs when there is nothing to support a currency, such as foreign buyers or central bank interventions. He shares the views of an economist called René Dubas who believes that Russia is facing an economic collapse, and that the middle classes will soon follow the oligarchs out of Russia.
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Russian Internet Outage
🎦 29:20-29:48⏩
Jonathan reports on rumours that Russia shut down the internet yesterday (29/11/2024) in an attempt to prevent a run on the banks.
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Russian Shopping Malls Facing Bankruptcy
🎦 29:49-30:39⏩
Jonathan reports that over 1,000 shopping malls in Russia are on the verge of bankruptcy. This is due to a number of factors including high interest rates, landlords exiting the market and increasing tax burdens. He notes how the central bank has raised the base rate to 21% - the highest in 20 years.
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Russian Police Raid Nightclubs in Moscow
🎦 30:40-32:26⏩
Jonathan reports on video footage of Russian police raiding nightclubs in Moscow, some of which are believed to be gay clubs. The raids are part of a clampdown on LGBT+ people in Russia and are seen as an attempt to enforce conformity and appease conservative elements in Russian society.
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Uncertain Times for Russia
🎦 32:27-32:41⏩
Jonathan reflects on how the events of the past few days suggest that Russia is facing a very uncertain future.
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Wrap Up
🎦 32:42-33:43⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their understanding that his video posting schedule might be erratic for the next few weeks due to a new arrival in his family - his partners daughter has just given birth to a baby girl. He will still try to produce his usual content, although the timings and the length of his videos might vary. He jokes that his viewers will probably welcome shorter videos.
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