Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Olympic Bans, Changing Army Culture & a Forever War
Table of Contents 📖
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"The United States doesn't lose wars, it loses interest."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses whether Russia and Belarus should be allowed to compete in the Olympics. He initially saw both sides of the argument - that sport should be separate from politics, but also that sports teams represent their nations to some degree. However, after seeing evidence of the close ties between the Russian armed forces and their Olympic athletes, with 61 out of 71 Russian medals in Tokyo being won by athletes affiliated with the army, Jonathan now believes Russia should be banned from the Olympics.
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Changing Army Culture
Continuing his serialisation of an article by Lt Col Glenn Grant, Jonathan covers several issues in the Ukrainian army that need addressing:
- Medical aid must be boosted to decrease military deaths. There are major weaknesses in the military medical system, with a lack of qualified combat first aid soldiers and proper tourniquets.
- Every unit needs a family and welfare officer to support families of injured or killed soldiers and build trust between the army and civilians.
- The controversial new Law 8271 which imposes much harsher penalties for desertion, disobedience etc. Grant and others argue this shows a lack of understanding of what motivates Ukrainian soldiers to fight.
However, Jonathan notes that recent announcements show Ukraine is taking steps to address some of the issues raised by Grant, such as reforming the state-run defence manufacturer Ukroboronprom and accelerating the deployment of drones to the front lines. He also stresses that while these are valid criticisms of the Ukrainian army, the problems are likely even worse on the Russian side.
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Window of Opportunity for Ukrainian Offensive
Military analyst Mykola Bielieskov argues that as Russian forces get worn down in largely unsuccessful offensives, before new rounds of mobilisation can bring results, a window of opportunity is open for a Ukrainian offensive. He says we are entering a "now or never" moment when Ukraine's partners should provide as much support as possible. However, others caution that the Ukrainians need to ensure they are properly prepared in terms of ammunition, equipment and training. The optimal time for a counter-offensive is seen as late Q2 2023, around May. They need to strike while the Russians are weak, but not rush in prematurely. Ukrainian military intelligence suggests Russia has enough resources to sustain the current intensity of war for another 2 years, so Ukraine's allies may start to lose patience if the war drags on too long.
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The Risks of a "Forever War"
Jonathan shares a clip from a Caspian Report video which argues that the longer the war goes on, the harder it will be for Ukraine to maintain the same level of military and financial support from allies like the US. Polls show a growing proportion of Americans, especially Republicans, feel the US is doing too much for Ukraine. The video suggests that as a lone superpower, "The US doesn't lose wars, it loses interest." Russia is banking on this war fatigue and trying to sow division in the West. The longer the war drags on, the more opportunity for Russia to use tools like propaganda (see Jonathan's recent video on Russia's use of religion) to undermine support for Ukraine, especially among certain segments of the US population and political establishment. While Ukraine's allies have been very supportive so far, it will become increasingly difficult to maintain that level of support, both between and within countries, as the war continues.
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Wrap up
Jonathan appreciates everyone's support and asks viewers to like, subscribe and share the video. He also encourages respectful but robust conversations in the comments. Jonathan notes he has a very busy day tomorrow with his sons' sporting commitments so may not be able to post videos, or they may be filmed in the evening from a hotel room. He'll try his best to get videos out but wanted to give advance notice about the challenges. He signs off with his customary "Toodlepips, enjoy your weekend!"
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