Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Elon sucks. Now, those of you who love Elon Musk, get over it. Just get over it, right? The guy is a plum tool, and he is clearly not helping Ukraine."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:02⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another update, acknowledging the disruption to his usual schedule due to his travels within Ukraine. This has impacted his ability to report on events as they unfold and maintain his normal routine.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures
🎦 01:02-02:29⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's reported Russian losses, including 980 personnel, nine tanks, 21 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs), and 24 artillery systems. He notes the high casualty figures are likely a result of costly Russian assaults in areas such as Avdiivka and Novomykolaivka. He acknowledges reports from sources on the ground in Ukraine who are facing significant challenges, particularly with artillery ammunition shortages and troop numbers in the Donbas region.
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Oryx Loss List
🎦 02:29-04:07⏩
Shifting to visually confirmed losses, Jonathan highlights Oryx's data, which indicates Ukrainian losses are far fewer than Russian ones. Ukrainian losses include communications equipment, boats, artillery, and a couple of US-supplied Stryker vehicles, which have not been seen much on the front lines since the counteroffensive in the south. Conversely, visually confirmed Russian losses include a command-and-control vehicle, an engineering vehicle, artillery pieces, tanks (T-72s and T-80s), various infantry fighting vehicles, 80 APCs, civilian vehicles, and a truck. Jonathan emphasises the significant loss of the Russian command-and-control vehicle.
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Russian Meat Assaults
🎦 04:07-06:13⏩
Jonathan discusses a video from WarTranslated featuring Russian soldiers near Novomykolaivka. The video reveals discontent among troops from the 155th Brigade due to being used as "meat" in assaults. Soldiers complain about a lack of ammunition, inadequate evacuation procedures, and being treated as expendable. Jonathan acknowledges the challenging situation on both sides of the conflict.
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Unexplained Explosions in Russia
🎦 06:13-08:24⏩
Jonathan delves into a UK intelligence report on unexplained explosions at Russian military industrial facilities. One such incident occurred at a missile factory near Izhevsk, initially attributed to worker error but later claimed by Russian state media to be a planned test. The factory is responsible for producing ballistic missiles, including the Iskander, frequently used against Ukraine. The report highlights similar explosions at other sites, including the Kamensky chemical plant, the Chelyabinsk tank factory, and ammunition factories in Kotovsk and Solkansk. Jonathan ponders whether these explosions are the result of sabotage, unreported strikes, or industrial accidents, ultimately suggesting all is not well within the Russian military-industrial complex. He links these events to Andrew Perpetua's recent livestream, where Perpetua discussed Russian missile production rates, noting a consistent pattern of missile attacks on Ukraine every two weeks. Perpetua posits that Russian production capacity is strained, and the recent explosions will only exacerbate their challenges in maintaining missile supplies. Jonathan considers this development positive for Ukraine.
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Russia on Fire: Togliatti and Krasnodar
🎦 08:24-14:14⏩
- A hotel complex and nightclub fire in Togliatti, Russia, engulfs an 800-square-meter area.
- Drone attacks target Odessa and Kharkiv. Ukrainian air defences intercept 23 out of 31 Shahed drones.
- In Odessa, three waves of drones strike the port, injuring a worker. Damage to private houses is reported, but no information about damage to the port is available.
- Explosions rock Kharkiv, with the mayor confirming civilian infrastructure was targeted. A Russian drone attack on a gas station caused an explosion and fire, damaging 14 houses and resulting in seven civilian deaths, including a family of five (mother, father, and three children)
- Jonathan notes conflicting reports about whether an oil depot or a gas station was hit in Kharkiv, suggesting it might have been an oil depot based on reports of a fuel leak. He also reports that the towns of Izium and Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region were hit, but no casualties were reported.
- Ukrainian forces conduct a missile strike on a Russian base. Video footage shows damaged Russian military equipment.
- Russian air defences reportedly shoot down 19 drones overnight, including six over the Black Sea and five in Bryansk. Additionally, they claim to have prevented a drone attack on a fuel and energy complex in Oryol.
- Jonathan revisits an earlier report about an oil refinery fire in Krasnodar, speculating that it was likely struck by a Ukrainian drone. The Ilitsky oil refinery in the Siversk area of Krasnodar was hit, with locals reporting an explosion before the fire.
- Explosions are also reported in occupied Berdyansk, with the mayor's advisor confirming the activation of Russian air defences.
Zelensky Awards Honours
🎦 14:14-15:13⏩
Jonathan touches on the recent replacement of a high-ranking Ukrainian official (assumed to be Oleksii Reznikov, the Defence Minister), who was subsequently awarded a state honour by Zelensky. He expresses uncertainty about the situation but believes it's crucial for Ukrainians to unite behind their leadership, especially during wartime, regardless of internal disagreements.
Other News: Emergency Landing, Downed Russian Plane, Protests in Moscow
🎦 15:13-17:01⏩
- An Air Astana flight experiences multiple issues, including a delayed departure, landing gear malfunction, hydraulic problems, and an emergency landing.
- Jonathan reiterates that no prisoners of war (POWs) were on board the Russian Il-76 plane downed in Belgrade, as confirmed by Ukrainian National Security and Defence Chief Oleksii Danilov. Jonathan highlights the lack of evidence suggesting otherwise.
- Weekly protests by wives of mobilised Russian soldiers commence in Moscow. Russian authorities disrupt the gathering, prohibiting a moment of silence and ordering participants to leave the Eternal Flame memorial. Jonathan views these protests as a sign of growing dissent and suggests that attempts to suppress them may backfire.
Russian Trolling on Social Media
🎦 17:01-23:48⏩
Jonathan discusses the rampant presence of Russian bots and trolls on social media, particularly on posts related to Tucker Carlson's interview with Putin. He notes the intensity of these activities, describing them as "hammered by trolls." He cites an example of a Twitter account, "Jasmine," claiming to be a former Democrat who will now vote for Trump due to Biden's actions. Jonathan highlights the account's pro-Trump and anti-Democrat stance, which predates the claimed shift in political allegiance. He deconstructs the tactics used by Russian trolls, including using seemingly genuine profiles with carefully crafted personas (e.g., "a serious radio co-host, a retired marketer") to spread disinformation and sow discord among Americans. He exposes the inauthenticity of these accounts by revealing their engagement with pro-Russian accounts and their dissemination of pro-Kremlin narratives. Jonathan encourages viewers to be discerning and critical of information encountered online, cautioning against falling prey to Russian troll tactics.
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Starlink Controversy
🎦 23:48-26:15⏩
Jonathan expresses his anger and disappointment with Elon Musk's Starlink for allegedly being used by Russian forces in Ukraine. He cites reports of "dozens, possibly hundreds" of Starlink devices on the front lines, potentially entering Russia via countries without sanctions. Jonathan criticises Musk, calling him "a plum tool" and stating "the guy is clearly not helping Ukraine." He also points to a decline in Starlink's service quality for Ukrainian users. He challenges Starlink's denial of operating in Russia or being sold through intermediaries in Dubai by highlighting that the accusations centre around usage by the Russian military operating in Ukraine, not civilian use within Russia itself. He emphasises that Starlink's availability map shows coverage in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, contradicting their denials and raising concerns about potential sanctions violations.
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Treatment of POWs
🎦 26:15-27:11⏩
Jonathan compares the treatment of prisoners of war (POWs) by Ukraine and Russia, highlighting the stark contrast. He references a previous video showcasing the humane conditions under which Russian POWs are held in Ukrainian captivity. Conversely, he presents a photo of a Ukrainian POW, Vladimir Samir Bursov, who returned from Russian captivity severely emaciated. Jonathan condemns the inhumane treatment of Ukrainian POWs by Russian forces.
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Wrap up
🎦 27:11-27:16⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He expresses gratitude for the support he receives.
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