Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Arty Green, RU Training, Minding Mines, & Crimea Hist & Geog # 6
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Table of Contents 📖
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"I don't think they've learned anything from a year of war."
Interview with Arty Green
- Arty Green, a planner captain, discusses the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive
- He believes there are enough resources and forces for the counter-offensive, but is worried about the standard of the operative commanders
- The Kherson and Kharkiv offensives only achieved 5-10% of what they should have due to poor decision making by commanders
- Lessons from these offensives have not been learned, with the same mistakes being repeated in Donetsk
Russian Military Training Issues
- Lack of proper combat training in rear units not involved in direct combat
- Inspections focused on trivial matters rather than combat readiness
- Communication issues due to outdated software and prohibited instant messengers
- Unfair awarding of medals to soldiers
- Commanders setting stupid tasks that reduce morale and combat readiness
Russian Vehicle Issues
- Lack of self-recovery cables or chains on Russian armoured fighting vehicles
- Abandoned vehicles left intact for the enemy due to lack of training
- Wooden planks used as structural elements in a T-80 tank wreckage
- Tour of a captured T-62 tank in poor condition with outdated equipment
New Russian PMC "Wolves"
- Hundreds of soldiers mobilised by the Russian Ministry of Defence found themselves as members of a new PMC called "Wolves" without prior knowledge
- Soldiers are being pressured to sign contracts with the PMC, and some recovering soldiers are being transferred to assault units instead of their original units
- The purpose behind Wagner's creation of this new PMC remains unclear
Crimean History and Geography Part 6
- Crimea's geography makes it difficult to invade, with only three narrow land routes
- Russia has been re-fortifying these areas, making them stronger than in WWII
- Ukraine is unlikely to be able to blockade Crimea's ports or destroy the Kerch Bridge
- Amphibious landings are impossible without naval or air support
- Ukraine's best option may be a combined arms frontal attack at Perikop, but this would likely result in heavy casualties
- Russia is expected to fight very hard to retain Crimea due to its nationalist ideology
Wrap up
Jonathan believes that a frontal attack on Crimea by Ukraine would be suicidal. The best approach would be to cut off Crimea from supplies and then use long-range munitions to make it untenable for Russia to hold onto the peninsula. Destroying or damaging the port of Sevastopol is key, as it is a vital warm water, deep water port for Russia.
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