Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Counter Analysis, Metrics for Success, & RU Schisms
Table of Contents 📖
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"Progress can occur when the enemy's firepower has become sufficiently weak."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses a thread from Dimitri at War Translated looking at how Russian propagandists are reacting to the arrest of Igor Girkin and other prominent ultra-nationalists. The propagandists are labeling them as "fascist scum" and warning that the authorities will be cracking down on other military bloggers and volunteers who criticize the government. Jonathan notes the hypocrisy of Russia attacking outside censorship while brutally censoring domestically.
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Evaluating the Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Jonathan analyzes a long thread from a Ukrainian source (relayed by Michael Weiss) providing a counter-analysis to the emerging conventional wisdom that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing. Key points:
- Ukraine has made slow progress in the south and around Bakhmut. The pace is expected to be slow, similar to last summer.
- The main objective is to weaken Russian artillery and logistics. Ukraine is destroying around 25 Russian artillery pieces per day which is starting to have an effect.
- Lack of air superiority and the need to carefully negotiate minefields is slowing progress. A massive frontal assault would lead to heavy losses which Ukraine wants to avoid.
- Ukraine's goal should be to reach the sea by end of autumn. There is still time and the source remains cautiously optimistic.
- Officer quality and ability to coordinate large units is a challenge on both sides but not the main reason for slow progress.
Jonathan emphasizes the need to understand Ukraine's actual goals and objectives in order to properly evaluate the success of the counteroffensive. Territorial gain is the ultimate aim but the current phase is focused on degrading Russian capabilities.
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Arrests and Schisms in Russia
The arrest of Igor Girkin follows his sharp criticism of Putin and indicates the Kremlin is cracking down on some of the ultra-nationalist military bloggers. This is creating a visible schism in the Russian information space. The liquidation of Wagner as an independent fighting force has significantly weakened Russia's most capable units, shifting battlefield initiative back to Ukraine. Domestic discontent in Russia is growing within the army and security services. Further Russian defeats at the front could accelerate these processes. However, for now a fragile stability remains.
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Crimean Bridge Attack
Jonathan suggests the Crimean bridge attack played a greater psychological than military role since the rail link remained intact. However, the source notes that Russia had started using trucks to transport military supplies over the bridge to avoid unloading trains in Crimea which would be vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks. With the bridge now closed to freight, this creates additional logistics challenges for Russia in supplying the southern front.
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Critiquing "Ukraine's Counteroffensive is Failing" Analysis
Jonathan critiques an article in The Telegraph by Richard Kemp arguing that Ukraine's counteroffensive is failing and that only a bold, massed armored assault can succeed. While Jonathan agrees that ultimately such an assault will be needed, he argues that Ukraine is sensibly focusing first on degrading Russian artillery, air defenses, and logistics before committing to large mechanized attacks. He pushes back against pro-Russian voices amplifying Kemp's article to argue that Ukraine is in trouble, noting the unsustainable losses Russia is suffering and the vast economic advantage of the West.
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Wrap up
Jonathan concludes by quoting Anthony Blinken suggesting that once Ukraine deploys all its trained forces there will be significant changes at the front. He believes Zelensky's statements that this will happen soon are overly optimistic. The key is for Ukraine to pick the right time to commit its forces to ensure maximum impact on the Russians while minimizing their own losses. As always, he asks viewers to like, subscribe, share and share their thoughts in the comments.
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