Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"North Korean troops used in Europe, geographically speaking. It's nuts."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War News Update. He notes this is the first part for November 23rd, 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses (22nd November)
🎦 00:09-01:58⏩
- Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses on November 22nd, noting an increase likely due to improved weather conditions.
- The figures show a significant spike in losses, with 1,420 personnel, 20 tanks, 36 armoured personnel vehicles, and 24 artillery systems lost by Russia.
- Jonathan discusses the impact of weather on drone usage, noting the stormy conditions in the UK would render drones unusable. He speculates on the wind thresholds for Shaheed drones.
Mass Grave in Luhansk
🎦 01:58-04:07⏩
- Jonathan cites a Telegram channel report about a Russian soldier buried in a mass grave in Luhansk.
- He highlights the recurring denial of mass graves by bots and trolls whenever he posts about them.
- He shares the story of Alexander Likachev, a Russian soldier buried in Luhansk without his mother's knowledge.
Analysis of Mass Graves and Russian Military Practices
🎦 04:07-05:04⏩
- Jonathan analyses the implications of mass graves, indicating a high casualty count and logistical challenges in managing the deceased.
- He argues that the burial of an identified soldier in a mass grave reveals a lack of care for human life within the Russian army.
- Jonathan notes increased Russian spending on DNA analysis for body identification due to the difficulties in processing the dead.
Civilian Vehicles on the Front Lines
🎦 05:04-06:23⏩
- Jonathan shows footage of destroyed vehicles, highlighting the destruction in the warzone.
- He discusses reports of Russia using civilian vehicles, such as Lada Priora and Tavria cars, to transport troops to the front lines.
- Jonathan argues that the use of such vehicles indicates a shortage of combat vehicles and equipment for the Russian forces.
Ukrainian MiG-29 Destroyed in Dnipro
🎦 06:24-08:13⏩
- Jonathan reports on the destruction of a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet in an Iskander ballistic missile strike on Dnipro airport.
- He notes the rarity of such a precise strike by an Iskander missile.
- He presents speculation that the targeted MiG-29 might have been a decoy, as is common when high-value assets are hit.
- Jonathan acknowledges the limited footage makes it difficult to confirm whether the destroyed aircraft was operational. He includes it in the loss list for now.
Drone Duel Footage
🎦 08:14-08:35⏩
- Jonathan shows footage of a drone-on-drone duel, resulting in both drones exploding. The footage doesn't clarify what types of drones were involved.
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Krakowska Thermal Power Plant Destroyed
🎦 08:38-09:16⏩
- Jonathan reports on explosions in Zaporizhzhia, Krasnoyarsk (Crimea).
- He shows footage of the Krakowska thermal power plant in Donetsk Oblast being destroyed by Russian forces, suggesting the Ukrainians may have been using it as a defensive position.
Weather and Mud on the Front Lines
🎦 09:16-10:23⏩
- Jonathan shows a video of a vehicle navigating muddy conditions in the Kursk region of Russia, highlighting the impact of weather on military operations.
- He speculates that the muddy terrain might be hindering both sides' movements, potentially explaining the delayed release of drone attack statistics.
Shahed Drone Attacks (22nd November)
🎦 10:23-11:20⏩
- Jonathan presents infographic data showing 114 Iranian Shahed drones launched from Russia's Orel region towards Ukraine.
- He highlights that 105 out of the 114 drones were neutralized, with 64 shot down by Ukrainian defenders and 41 failing to reach their targets due to electronic warfare.
- Jonathan finds the daytime drone activity unusual and notes the lack of reported nighttime activity, speculating on the reasons behind this shift.
Ukrainian Strike on Berdyansk Seaport
🎦 11:20-12:06⏩
- Jonathan reports a Ukrainian strike on the Berdyansk seaport on the Azov Sea. Russian sources acknowledge the attack but downplay its impact.
- They claim a guided missile, likely a Storm Shadow, Scalp-EG, or potentially an ATACMS, was used in the attack.
- The Russians report a fire but claim the port's operations remain unaffected, with no casualties.
- Jonathan welcomes the renewed Ukrainian focus on Berdyansk, suggesting it indicates the targeting of strategically important objectives.
Fire at Novichokask Power Station, Russia
🎦 12:06-12:45⏩
- Jonathan reports a fire and explosion at a power station in Novichokask in Russia's Rostov region.
- He notes that the cause of the explosion is unclear, and Russian media initially reported the incident but later removed their coverage.
- He speculates that the incident might have been caused by Ukrainian drone strikes.
Speculation: Ukrainian Deep Strikes Impacting Russian Tactics
🎦 12:45-13:29⏩
- Jonathan discusses speculation that increased Ukrainian deep strikes within Russia, potentially enabled by relaxed restrictions on weapons like Storm Shadows, might be impacting Russian tactics.
- He cites Ukrainian expert Alexander Kovalenko, who suggests these strikes could be disrupting Russian air operations by targeting key airfields and command centres.
- Jonathan emphasizes the limited information available and the importance of factors like missile availability, interception rates, and overall effectiveness of these strikes.
Russia's Strategic Plan to Divide Ukraine
🎦 13:29-16:16⏩
- Jonathan discusses reports from Ukrainian intelligence that Russia has formulated a strategic plan to divide Ukraine into three parts.
- He notes that this aligns with Russia's unchanged territorial ambitions, despite their shifting military goals.
- The plan, detailed in a classified military document, allegedly aims to establish pro-Russian or strictly neutral governments in Ukraine, preventing the country from joining NATO.
- The document highlights Russia's intent to fully occupy Ukraine, with this objective potentially becoming relevant sooner than later.
Front Line Update: Velika Novosilka Under Threat
🎦 16:16-18:16⏩
- Jonathan shifts focus to the frontline, highlighting the situation in Velika Novosilka in the southeastern sector. - He describes the town as being in a precarious position, facing increasing pressure from Russian forces from the east.
- He cites reports from Andrew Perpetua, characterizing the situation as some of the worst news in the war, reaching a critical point requiring immediate intervention.
- The loss of Velika Novosilka, the anchor of the southern defensive line, would be a significant blow to Ukraine.
- Jonathan explains that the town's defences are primarily oriented towards the south, leaving it vulnerable to attacks from the east and north.
Ukraine Holding 800 Square Kilometres in Kursk
🎦 18:16-18:41⏩
- Shifting to the northern front, Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces are holding approximately 800 square kilometers in the Kursk region of Russia, according to a Ukrainian General Staff source.
- This figure is slightly higher than previous estimates of 690 square kilometers.
- Despite their efforts, Russian forces have failed to reclaim this area for four months, sustaining heavy losses in the process.
North Korean Troops Massing in Russia for Ukraine War
🎦 18:41-19:22⏩
- Jonathan notes the contrasting situations on the front lines, with Ukrainian forces successfully holding ground in Kursk while facing difficulties in the south.
- He raises the question of where the recently arrived French-trained Ukrainian unit (the "Anne of Kyiv" unit) will be deployed, suggesting their potential importance in the southeastern sector.
North Korean Troop Deployment Confirmed by Pentagon
🎦 19:22-21:25⏩
- Jonathan highlights breaking news from Agence France-Presse that North Korean troops have massed within Russia in preparation to enter the war in Ukraine, citing confirmation from the Pentagon chief.
- While previous claims about North Korean involvement have surfaced, the Pentagon's statement suggests a significant escalation in their participation.
- He cites reports of North Korean troops and advisors already present in Mariupol and Kharkiv, Ukraine, based on radio intercepts and Ukrainian sources.
- Jonathan expresses deep concern over the potential involvement of tens of thousands of North Korean troops, viewing it as a game-changer in the conflict.
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Call for NATO Presence in Western Ukraine
🎦 21:25-22:03⏩
- Jonathan argues that the potential North Korean deployment is a significant threat that needs to be addressed proactively.
- He calls for serious consideration of a NATO presence in western Ukraine to free up Ukrainian troops for the eastern front.
- He believes that relying on reactive measures is insufficient and highlights the need for swift action, given the potential for rapid deployment of North Korean forces throughout Ukraine.
Russian Commander Dismissed for Misinformation
🎦 22:03-22:37⏩
- Shifting back to the Russian military, Jonathan reports on the alleged dismissal of Colonel General Gennady Anashkin, the commander of the Southern Grouping of Russian forces.
- He cites reports from military blogger Podolyaka, indicating that Anashkin was removed for consistently misrepresenting frontline conditions to the Russian General Staff.
- Similar actions are rumored to be pending against General Toplinsky, commander of the Dnipro group, who might face dismissal or reassignment to the Kursk sector.
Russian Execution of Ukrainian POWs
🎦 22:37-23:03⏩
- Jonathan presents further evidence of Russian war crimes, citing the execution of five captured Ukrainian soldiers near Vuhledar on October 2nd, 2024.
- The report, from the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, states that Russian forces stormed Ukrainian positions, captured five unarmed soldiers, and executed them in a nearby forest and on the road.
- An investigation into the incident is currently underway.
Peskov Denies Need for Mobilization
🎦 23:03-23:44⏩
- Jonathan addresses statements from Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, who asserts that there is no need for mobilization in Russia currently.
- He points to the potential availability of North Korean troops as a factor in Russia's stance, negating the immediate requirement for domestic mobilization.
- Peskov's claim of "vigorous training" for newly contracted soldiers is met with skepticism by Jonathan, who contrasts it with reports of poorly trained and equipped Russian soldiers being captured or killed shortly after deployment.
Analysis: Russian Mobilization and Putin's Health
🎦 23:44-25:52⏩
- Jonathan presents a case of a Russian soldier captured just three days after being mobilized, highlighting the lack of adequate training.
- He discusses footage of Vladimir Putin where his hands appear unusually still, sparking speculation about potential health issues, including Parkinson's disease or other neurological conditions.
- Jonathan shows coverage from German tabloid Bild, where they analyze Putin's limited hand movements in recent videos, contrasting them with his more animated gestures in past speeches.
Russian Economic Update: Sanctions Impacting LNG Production
🎦 25:52-27:13⏩
- Transitioning to the Russian economy, Jonathan cites Anton Gerashchenko, who reports a decline in activity at Russia's only construction yard for liquefied natural gas (LNG) modules due to Western sanctions.
- He presents evidence from Bloomberg, indicating that the Belokamenka facility on the Barents Sea, intended as a hub for LNG production, appears to be largely inactive.
- Satellite data reveals significantly reduced nighttime light intensity at the site, suggesting a halt in construction and expansion plans.
- Jonathan argues that the sanctions imposed on Novatek, a key player in Russia's energy sector, are hindering their ability to expand LNG infrastructure and achieve their export goals.
Ruble Collapse and Bond Market Concerns
🎦 27:13-31:08⏩
- Jonathan provides an update on the Russian ruble, noting its further decline against the US dollar, surpassing 104 rubles per dollar. - He highlights analysis from "Toy Ceratops" on BlueSky social who points to concerning trends in the Russian bond market.
- Jonathan provides a concise explanation of bonds, emphasizing their role as debt instruments issued by governments or corporations to raise capital.
- He explains that an inverted yield curve, where long-term interest rates fall below short-term rates, often signals an impending recession.
Analysis: Russian Bond Market Signals Recession
🎦 31:08-33:28⏩
- Jonathan, expressing his limited expertise in bond markets, nonetheless concludes, based on the presented analysis, that the Russian economy is heading towards a recession.
- He uses the analogy of the inverted yield curve resembling a ski slope, emphasizing the severity of the situation.
- Jonathan points out the rapid rise in Russian bond yields as an alarming sign, explaining that this indicates a decrease in bond prices.
- He warns that declining bond prices can have cascading negative effects, potentially impacting the banking sector due to bonds being used as collateral.
Russian Hyperinflation: Evidence and Analysis
🎦 33:28-34:06⏩
- Jonathan challenges the official Russian inflation rate of 9%, arguing that the real figures are significantly higher, indicating hyperinflation.
- He presents data on price increases for various goods and services, including residential property (up 19%), food items like potatoes (up 73%), butter (up 30%), and beef (almost tripled), and car prices (expected to rise 30-40%).
- Jonathan concludes that Russia is grappling with hyperinflation, with real inflation likely already in the double-digit range and potentially reaching triple digits next year.
- He compares the situation to economic crises experienced in countries like Argentina and Turkey.
Concerns over Potential US Policy Shifts
🎦 34:06-35:32⏩
- While acknowledging the dire economic situation in Russia, Jonathan expresses concern about potential policy shifts under the incoming US administration (with Donald Trump having been re-elected in late 2024 in this timeline).
- He worries that the US might reverse its economic pressure on Russia, potentially easing sanctions.
- He cites the appointment of individuals like Sebastian Gorka to counterterrorism positions as a cause for concern, viewing them as potentially sympathetic to Russia.
- Jonathan hopes that figures like NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg can persuade the Trump administration to maintain pressure on Russia.
- He concludes that despite the negative trends in Ukraine, the overall strategic picture remains more favourable for Ukraine than for Russia in the long term, contingent on continued US support.
Wrap up
🎦 35:32-35:50⏩
- Jonathan summarizes the key takeaways: the battlefront situation is worsening for Ukraine; the economy is deteriorating for Russia; and while Russia faces equipment shortages, Ukraine's ability to procure and produce equipment remains stronger.
- He acknowledges the difficult situation Ukraine is in but reiterates the more favourable macro picture for Ukraine, emphasizing the dependence on future US actions.
- He signs off, thanking viewers for their support and mentioning his staggered video output for the day due to personal commitments.
