Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitics News
Table of Contents 📖
"That which is asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to part three of the Ukraine War Update for 24th May 2024, focusing on geopolitical news.
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Putin seeks ceasefire?
🎦 00:14-07:39⏩
Jonathan analyses a Reuters report claiming Putin wants a ceasefire in Ukraine based on current frontlines. Sources suggest Putin:
- Believes he can achieve victory without further mobilisation
- Is feeling the pressure of Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes and drone and missile attacks.
- Is unwilling to announce a second mobilisation due to economic impact and damage to his popularity
- Aims to pressure Ukraine and the West into negotiations
- Wants to freeze the conflict, solidifying Russia’s territorial gains.
Jonathan believes Russia would benefit most from a ceasefire, enabling them to rearm and reconstitute. He advises Ukraine against accepting as it falls short of their objectives (returning to 1991 borders).
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Putin's North Korea Visit
🎦 07:39-14:20⏩
Jonathan highlights Putin's upcoming visit to North Korea, following his recent trip to China. He believes this signifies Russia's desperate need for weapons. Jonathan links this to the ceasefire proposal, suggesting Russia seeks to rearm during any potential truce. He finds Russia's reliance on nations like China, North Korea, and Iran concerning and indicative of their precarious military situation.
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Russian Opposition Forum in Lviv
🎦 14:20-16:17⏩
A Russian opposition forum, attended by representatives and volunteer battalions, took place in Lviv, Ukraine. They expressed support for Zelensky's peace formula and advocated for:
- Recognition that the war is criminal and Putin's regime is illegitimate.
- Regime change in Russia
- The return of occupied Ukrainian territories.
- The release of political prisoners and Ukrainian prisoners of war.
Jonathan considers this a positive development, offering a viable alternative to Putin's regime. He notes that genuine political opposition within Russia is impossible due to the risk of imprisonment or death, highlighting the need for external opposition movements.
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Japan sanctions Russia over North Korean Weapons
🎦 16:17-16:51⏩
Japan has sanctioned two companies in Cyprus in response to Russia's use of North Korean weapons, violating UN resolutions and sanctions. Jonathan commends Japan for holding Russia accountable and criticizes the UN's inaction due to Russia's position on the Security Council.
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Russia-Estonia Border Dispute
🎦 16:51-17:43⏩
Estonia summoned the Russian ambassador after Russia removed buoys marking the border on the Narva River, a move Estonia perceives as an attempt to claim maritime territory. Jonathan sees this as another example of Russia's aggression. He reports that France has expressed solidarity with Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania in response to similar provocations by Russia.
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European Far-Right Coalition
🎦 17:43-21:31⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over the emergence of a new far-right coalition within the European Parliament, even further to the right than existing far-right groups. This coalition includes:
- Hungary’s Viktor Orbán
- Poland’s Confederation Party
- France’s National Rally
- Germany’s AfD
This new group seeks to "confront globalists" and is accused of aligning with Russia's interests. On a positive note, Jonathan points out anti-Orbán protests in Hungary, signifying growing opposition to his pro-Russia stance.
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Romania Arrests Man for Treason
🎦 21:31-22:10⏩
A man in Romania has been arrested for treason after passing classified information, including NATO intelligence, to the Russian embassy since 2022. Jonathan highlights Romania's significant role within NATO, particularly in providing F-16 training and hosting a new NATO base.
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Poland Tightens Security Over Russian Sabotage Fears
🎦 22:10-24:05⏩
Jonathan discusses Poland's concerns regarding Russian espionage and sabotage. Following the arrest of twelve individuals, Poland's interior minister has openly accused Russia of "hostile and kinetic action" on Polish soil. Jonathan ponders whether Russia's actions, blurring the lines between hybrid and open warfare, could eventually trigger NATO's Article 5.
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Ukraine-Poland Security Agreement
🎦 24:05-24:23⏩
Ukraine and Poland have commenced negotiations for a bilateral security agreement.
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Poland and Greece Urge EU Air Defence Shield
🎦 24:23-26:30⏩
Poland and Greece have jointly urged the EU to establish an independent air defence shield to bolster European security. Jonathan views this as a significant step towards reducing reliance on the US and NATO. He argues that such a shield is essential given the EU's evolving political and economic landscape and that the war in Ukraine has demonstrated the need for a cohesive EU military strategy.
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China-Taiwan Tensions
🎦 26:30-27:14⏩
Amid heightened tensions, 33 Chinese planes and 31 ships were reported approaching Taiwan. Taiwan has responded by activating its air defense systems. Jonathan notes that such exercises are a deliberate display of force by China, frequently pushing the boundaries of Taiwanese maritime borders.
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US Economy and China
🎦 27:14-31:48⏩
Jonathan examines the US economy, noting its strong performance despite widespread misperceptions. He highlights:
- Record low unemployment
- The stock market's strong performance
He contrasts this with public perception, fuelled by misinformation, that paints a negative picture. He criticises Trump's proposed policies – mass deportation and tariffs on Chinese goods – arguing they would be economically disastrous and exacerbate inflation.
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US Congressman Supports Ukraine Funding
🎦 31:48-33:45⏩
Jonathan welcomes a Democrat congressman’s support for the REPO Act, which would enable the US to seize frozen Russian assets and transfer them to Ukraine for reconstruction.
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US-Russia Asset Confiscation
🎦 33:45-37:01⏩
In retaliation to the US, Putin signed a decree allowing the confiscation of American assets in Russia. Jonathan analyses the potential impact, arguing:
- It is unlikely to significantly harm the US economy
- It could deter future investment in Russia
- The US stands to lose less than Russia, given the reduced American investment in Russia since the war began.
Jonathan expresses concern about the erosion of trust in US institutions since 2016.
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Trump and Gershkovich
🎦 37:01-42:00⏩
Jonathan criticises Trump's claim that he could secure the release of Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal reporter detained in Russia. Trump stated Gershkovich would be released "almost immediately" after the election if he were to be re-elected. Jonathan argues that Trump's statement is baseless and cites Trevor Reed, a former US detainee in Russia, who doubts Trump's claims. He condemns Trump's admiration for authoritarian leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong-un, viewing it as evidence of Trump's own authoritarian leanings. He expresses deep concern over Trump's potential return to power, believing it would threaten democracy and further empower the conservative-leaning Supreme Court.
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Nikki Haley Endorses Trump
🎦 42:00-47:32⏩
Jonathan criticizes Nikki Haley's endorsement of Trump, despite her previous criticisms of him. He believes Haley's about-face stems from her desire to remain within the Republican Party. Jonathan condemns Haley's lack of integrity, contrasting it with Liz Cheney, who stood against Trump and paid the political price. He expresses deep disappointment with Republicans who continue to support Trump, finding it unfathomable given Trump’s actions and beliefs. He views Trump as dangerous and detrimental to democracy, fearing the consequences of a second Trump term, especially regarding the Supreme Court.
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Hakeem Jeffries on Ukraine
🎦 47:32-51:03⏩
Jonathan analyses Hakeem Jeffries', the Democrat House Minority Leader's stance on Ukraine. While Jeffries avoids directly answering whether he supports Ukraine using US weapons inside Russia, Jonathan interprets his commitment to "aggressively support" Ukraine as tacit approval.
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Biden to Miss Ukraine Peace Summit
🎦 51:03-54:05⏩
Jonathan discusses Biden’s decision to miss an upcoming Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland due to a prior commitment - a major fundraising event for his re-election campaign. While acknowledging the optics aren't good, Jonathan defends Biden, arguing:
- The fundraiser was pre-scheduled
- Re-electing Biden is crucial for Ukraine, given Trump's stance on the war
Jonathan predicts Blinken will attend the summit in Biden's place, describing Blinken as a capable representative.
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US Sanctions Georgian Politicians
🎦 54:05-54:37⏩
The US has imposed travel restrictions on politicians in Georgia for undermining democracy, specifically for implementing a “foreign agents” law. The US has also launched a review of its relations with Georgia.
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Wrap Up
🎦 54:37-54:41⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for their patience with the longer video.
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