Are Russians Losing More Troops in Bakhmut Than Ukraine?
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"The probability of that is astronomically low and so therefore yeah I think it's fairly obvious that the Russians are losing somewhat more than the Ukrainians and almost certainly a lot more troops than the Ukrainians in the Bakhmut area"
Hello Team!
Jonathan addresses a common question from pro-Russian voices asking for proof that Russia is losing more troops than Ukraine in the battle for Bakhmut. He presents a dozen arguments and pieces of evidence to build a cumulative case that Russia is indeed suffering greater losses.
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Ukraine's continued defense of Bakhmut
The fact that Ukraine is still defending Bakhmut indicates the casualty ratio is in their favour. It would be insane for them to stay and lose more troops than Russia. Their calculus is that it's worth staying because they are attriting Russian forces at an advantageous rate.
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Ukrainian claims of favourable loss ratios
Ukraine has consistently claimed loss ratios of 7:1 and 5:1 in their favour in Bakhmut. These claims have come from primary sources on the ground. While the ratio has likely narrowed, the claims have been steady throughout Russia's offensive.
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Evidence of Russian human wave tactics
There have been countless Ukrainian primary source reports and videos showing Russian human wave attacks in Bakhmut. This expensive tactic of throwing personnel at the problem to gain ground supports the hypothesis that Russia is losing more troops.
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Military theory on attacking vs defending forces
Military theory states that attacking forces need a 3:1 advantage to overcome defenders, and a 5:1 to 9:1 ratio in urban terrain. Russia has never had this in Bakhmut. The Modern War Institute outlines 8 rules of urban warfare that give defenders the advantage. This supports the case that Ukraine is likely taking fewer casualties as the defender.
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Video evidence of Russian losses
There is extensive video footage showing trenches and fields full of dead Russian soldiers around Bakhmut. While disturbing to show, this visual evidence suggests very heavy Russian casualties.
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Ukrainian defenders' tactical advantages
As defenders, Ukraine has been able to use local knowledge to their advantage and employ tactics like booby-trapping buildings. Bakhmut's urban environment makes it very difficult for Russia to take without serious losses.
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Poor quality of Russian forces
Russia's attacking forces in Bakhmut have included a large contingent of poorly-trained convict recruits. Both UK intelligence and Russian sources indicate they have prioritized quantity over quality. Prigozhin himself has complained about the lack of equipment and losses being 5 times higher than they should be.
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Lack of Russian combined arms
The Bakhmut offensive has been infantry-heavy, with Russia not employing mechanized equipment or combined arms to a significant degree. Prigozhin and soldiers have complained about the lack of armoured vehicles, artillery and ammunition. Using masses of infantry without supporting assets is very costly.
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Dysfunction between Russian forces
The open disputes between Wagner and the Russian military suggest a dysfunction that is likely hampering the effectiveness of operations. With various PMCS like Redut and Wolves also not cooperating, this lack of coherence works against Russia's success.
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Ukrainian claims of Russian losses
While Ukraine does not publicize all the evidence, they do claim to have data showing the high Russian casualty numbers they report each day. This is another explicit piece of the argument.
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Wrap up
When looking at the balance of evidence and arguments through abductive reasoning, the cumulative case strongly supports the conclusion that Russia is losing more troops—likely significantly more—than Ukraine in the Bakhmut area. The probability of the opposite being true, given these dozen factors, is astronomically low. As always, Jonathan invites viewers to share their thoughts and refers them to this video when the question arises in comment threads.
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