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Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update

Front Line Saturday, 29th April 2023, 15:18
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"This is not liberation. When you liberate places, you allow them freedom - freedom to say this is who I am, this is who I feel I am, and this is who I want to be. You don't say 'I'm liberating you and by the way, if you don't adhere to the identity that I think you should have, I'm going to deport you somewhere else, I'm going to punish you for that.' That is not liberation."

Hello Team!

  • Jonathan had to tear himself away from drinking tea and singing Morrissey to do the update


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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Deportation of Ukrainians from occupied areas

  • Russia has a history of deporting people from areas they want to control and bringing in ethnic Russians to assimilate
  • Putin signed a decree defining those in Russian-occupied territories who refuse Russian passports as "foreign citizens and stateless persons"
  • This decree sets conditions for deportation of Ukrainians who do not agree to become Russian citizens
  • Russian authorities are continuing to deport Ukrainians, particularly children, to Russia
  • ISW assesses this may constitute a violation of the Geneva Convention on the prevention and punishment of the crime of genocide
  • Jonathan emphasises this is not liberation - when you liberate places you allow people freedom to choose their identity


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Frontline Update: Kupyansk to Kreminna

  • Geolocated footage shows Russian forces have advanced ~10km northwest of Kreminna
  • This confirms what pro-Russian mappers are saying, that the recent Ukrainian counter-attack in this area has been countered
  • Russians are now back to where they were before the Ukrainian counter-attack within the last week
  • Unsuccessful Russian attacks reported near Dubrovo, Bilohorivka, Torske, Terny


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Frontline Update: Bakhmut

  • Wagner Group has made advances in central Bakhmut, taking full control of some streets
  • Fighting ongoing at the Bakhmut Medical College
  • On southern outskirts, Russians have liberated an industrial technical school
  • Most pro-Russian mappers (e.g. Suriyak Maps) show Russians control up to 90% of Bakhmut
  • Prigozhin has said Wagner may not exist much longer, being replaced by conventional Russian troops around Bakhmut
  • Ukrainian tanks have been geolocated firing at Russian positions in the industrial college
  • Speculation Ukraine may try to do something significant around the May 9 Russian "Victory Day" related to Bakhmut


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Frontline Update: Avdiivka, Marinka, Vuhledar

  • Not much change reported around Avdiivka and Marinka
  • Some footage of Ukrainian drones taking out Russian equipment behind frontlines in Marinka
  • Around Vuhledar/Pavlivka area:
    • Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces have advanced southwest of Pavlivka
    • First time seeing reports of Ukrainian advances in this area
    • Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions near Pavlivka with artillery
  • Russians have allocated TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems to Avdiivka/Western Donetsk - indicates potential preparations to intensify offensive operations


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Frontline Update: Zaporizhzhia Oblast

  • HIMARS strike reported on a Russian officers' camp between Tokmak and a reservoir
  • Tokmak has defensive fortifications all around it, likely to be attacked in upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive


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Wrap up

  • Update a bit rushed today due to family visiting
  • Lots to cover in planned "Extra" video
  • Busy day tomorrow with a rugby tournament for his kids


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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

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Summaries based on original content from Jonathan MS Pearce, J.R. (Cartographer)

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