Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:09⏩
Jonathan starts the video by thanking Mark and Olena from Canada for the gift of a Vyshyvanka (a traditional Ukrainian embroidered shirt) and a Huska (headscarf). He reads out the letter that accompanied the gift and mentions that he will be interviewing Sean Pinner, a British man who was captured fighting for Ukraine, later today.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report Russian Losses
🎦 02:09-03:01⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian General Staff has stated that Russia has lost 770 personnel, 6 tanks, 31 armoured personnel vehicles, 41 artillery systems, 51 vehicles and fuel tanks and 3 pieces of special equipment.
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Andrew Perpetua's Visually Confirmed Losses - 13th April 2024
🎦 03:01-08:18⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed Russian and Ukrainian losses from military blogger Andrew Perpetua. He notes that the losses identified by Andrew Perpetua for the 13th of April are significant. He explains the importance of geolocation in the verification process, stating that it helps to avoid double counting. Jonathan goes through the list and points out that Russian losses appear to be three times higher than Ukrainian losses. He notes the high number of BMPs (Infantry Fighting Vehicles) that Russia has lost, and observes that many vehicles reported as abandoned are often destroyed later on.
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Andrew Perpetua's Visually Confirmed Losses - 14th April 2024
🎦 08:18-10:30⏩
Jonathan continues his review of visually confirmed losses with data from Andrew Perpetua from 14th April 2024. He observes a similar 3:1 ratio for Russian and Ukrainian losses. Jonathan comments on the use of Ural trucks by the Russians, suggesting that this is a sign of desperation and equipment shortages.
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Analysis of Russian Losses
🎦 10:30-12:04⏩
Jonathan discusses an observation from Andrew Perpetua about Russian losses, reporting that most Russian casualties don't seem to occur during assaults, but rather in the build-up and preparation for assaults as they advance to the front line. He suggests that after an assault, Russian troops disperse into shelters to avoid Ukrainian drone attacks and artillery, and notes that Ukraine doesn’t have the resources for sustained artillery barrages.
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Analysis of Russian BMP Losses
🎦 12:04-15:09⏩
Jonathan analyses data on the destruction of Russian BMPs, pointing out that the figures only account for vehicles confirmed as destroyed, and don't include abandoned, captured or damaged vehicles. He estimates that the actual number of BMP losses could be three to four times higher. Jonathan shares his view that these losses are unsustainable, and questions where Russia will find replacements.
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The Impact of the War on the Russian Economy
🎦 15:09-19:52⏩
Jonathan discusses the severe impact of the war on the Russian Economy. He cites reports stating that the Russian central bank needs 5 million skilled labourers to stabilise the economy, but questions where they will be found. Jonathan speculates that Russia will struggle to mobilise more troops because it would exacerbate existing labour shortages and further damage the economy, and argues that this is probably why widespread mobilisation hasn’t happened.
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Ukrainian Drone Warfare
🎦 19:52-22:57⏩
Jonathan highlights the role of Ukrainian drone warfare in inflicting significant losses on Russian forces. He shares footage of a Ukrainian drone unit and comments on the huge number of drones and explosive munitions they possess. He questions whether battalion commanders on either side are aware of how many drones are being used daily.
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Analysis of Russian Claims Regarding the Destruction of an IRIS-T SLM System
🎦 22:57-25:41⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of the purported destruction of a German IRIS-T SLM (Surface Launched Missile) System and suggests that it could be a decoy. He compares the footage with a confirmed strike on a Russian BUK system and observes that there are no secondary explosions. Jonathan also points out that the timing is suspicious, as footage was released the day after Germany pledged to supply Ukraine with more IRIS-T systems.
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Donbas and Zaporizhzhia Overnight Strikes (14th/15th April 2024)
🎦 25:41-28:38⏩
Jonathan reports that the Donbas region has come under attack. He reports that Slovyansk, Donetsk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut have all been shelled or targeted by drones or missiles. He notes that humanitarian aid worker Pierre Dupont has said that one of his vans was damaged by a drone in the Kramatorsk area. Jonathan also mentions a fire in Kazachia Bay and explosions in Berdyansk, before going on to discuss attacks on energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia. He states that Anton Gerashchenko has reported that a Ukrainian power plant was destroyed in a missile attack, causing $230m worth of damage, and that energy company DTEK has now lost 80% of its generating capacity.
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Ukrainian Strategy for Crimea
🎦 28:38-30:21⏩
Jonathan cites a report from an Estonian intelligence source claiming that Ukraine is systematically working to isolate Crimea by gradually degrading its logistics and military capabilities. He explains that this involves targeting the Black Sea fleet, as well as infrastructure in Sevastopol, Jankoi and Kerch. Jonathan argues that it might not be necessary for Ukraine to launch a full-scale assault to reclaim the peninsula if it can be rendered unusable by Russia.
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Flooding in Russia
🎦 30:21-31:40⏩
Jonathan talks about the significance of flooding in Orenburg, Russia. He argues that it could impact public support for the war as resources are diverted.
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Ukrainian Treatment of Russian POWs
🎦 31:40-34:11⏩
Jonathan discusses the treatment of Russian Prisoners of War in Ukraine. He notes that a Turkish delegation recently visited Ukraine to check on the welfare of POWs. Jonathan highlights the stark contrast between the condition of Russian and Ukrainian POWs, and argues that it’s in Ukraine’s best interests to adhere to international law, as any mistreatment of POWs would be exploited for propaganda purposes.
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Civil Unrest in Orenburg
🎦 34:11-35:00⏩
Jonathan plays a video clip of residents in Orenburg complaining about the lack of support from the authorities in the wake of the floods. He observes that people are angry and frustrated that resources are being spent on the war effort while their communities are underwater.
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The Destruction of a Ukrainian Orthodox Church in Russia
🎦 35:00-38:27⏩
Jonathan discusses the demolition of a Ukrainian Orthodox Church in Noginsk, Russia. He states that this is indicative of Russia’s attempts to weaponise religion and control the narrative. Jonathan reads an extract from an article in _The Atlantic_ about the history of the Orthodox Church in Russia and Ukraine. He explains that both nations have spiritual and cultural ties to Kyiv and that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church has been trying to break away from Russian dominance. He argues that Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, sees this as an existential threat to his authority and to Putin’s vision of a ‘Russian World’.
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Wrap Up
🎦 38:27-38:49⏩
Jonathan says he is going to work on other videos, and prepare for his interview with Sean Pinner. He signs off by telling viewers he’ll speak to them soon.
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"They are losing, on average, nine a day destroyed [BMPs]. So times that by four, three or four, and you'll get the overall losses for BMPs. So at nine destroyed a day, things are going to be utterly unsustainable."
