Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"[Avdiivka] must be getting absolutely hammered at the moment."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics frontline update, this one covering the 18th of January 2024. He briefly reminds viewers of the map key, urging them to familiarise themselves with it before diving into the day's analysis.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Front
🎦 00:09-03:03⏩
- Ukrainian sources indicate a shift in Russian offensive efforts from the Kupyansk direction towards Lyman.
- This shift suggests a move from the northern part of the axis to the south, potentially targeting Makiivka, Terny, and the area near Lyman.
- Attacks in the Kupyansk direction have reportedly decreased to 2-5 per day in the past three weeks.
- Ukrainian forces anticipate renewed Russian assaults in the Kupyansk direction once the ground freezes solid, likely in late January or early February.
- Jonathan notes what seems to be a contradiction in the reports – a shift in attacks but also a decrease due to weather. He speculates that the Russians might be focusing on areas with more favourable conditions.
- There are reports, unconfirmed by SyriMaps, of Ukrainian forces pushing back Russian troops in the Pershotravanve-Tavilshchana area. Jonathan acknowledges this is based on observations of map changes by 'JR', and awaits further confirmation.
Svatove Salient and Bilohorivka
🎦 03:03-04:12⏩
- Further south, near the Svatove salient, both SyriMaps and Andrew Perpetua's maps show Russian advances near Bilohorivka.
- Despite the challenging terrain, Russian forces have made incremental gains in the northeastern outskirts of the village.
- Jonathan notes these are small but confirmed changes to the frontline.
- No significant changes are reported in the areas of Siversk or Bakhmut, which Jonathan views as positive for Ukraine as it reduces pressure and attrition.
Avdiivka: Heavy Russian Bombardment
🎦 04:12-07:27⏩
- While Avdiivka has seen little change in territorial control, Jonathan highlights the intense bombardment the city is facing.
- A Russian milblogger claims Russian forces are advancing 100-200m per day near the water treatment facilities and Avdiivka Coke Plant.
- More concerning is the report from a Ukrainian official stating that 250 glide bombs have been dropped on Avdiivka since the start of 2024.
- This represents a staggering increase compared to the 149 glide bombs dropped in the entirety of 2023.
- Jonathan points out this is a 50-fold increase in just 18 days, emphasizing the devastating impact on the city.
- He references Andrew Perpetua’s previous reporting on the destruction caused by these large bombs.
- Further south, there are no reported changes in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Marinka, Novomykhailivka, or Vuhledar, according to both Ukrainian and Russian sources.
- Similarly, no confirmed changes are reported in the areas around Levadne and Robotyne.
- Jonathan acknowledges ongoing fighting in these areas, but emphasizes the lack of territorial shifts, which benefits Ukraine.
Kreminna: Heavy Losses and Potential Ukrainian Withdrawal
🎦 07:27-12:18⏩
- Jonathan notes reports of heavy Russian equipment losses, likely from attacks on columns moving towards Avdiivka and potential fighting in the north.
- Ukrainian drone activity is reported as being effective in inflicting losses on Russian forces around Kreminna.
- Despite this, SyriMaps suggests the situation in Kreminna favours Russia. They claim Russian forces have captured more territory in the past three days as Ukrainian troops withdraw from the urban area, creating a grey zone.
- SyriMaps predicts the area will be entirely under Russian control soon.
- Jonathan expresses uncertainty about these claims, contrasting them with the lack of change on Andrew Perpetua’s map, a source he considers more reliable.
- He ponders whether Ukraine is strategically withdrawing from Kreminna or if this is misinformation.
- Jonathan reiterates his previous assessment that holding Kreminna might be strategically unimportant for Ukraine if the odds are against them.
- He highlights the logistical challenges Ukrainian forces face in the area, particularly due to the frozen Dnipro River hampering boat movements.
- Footage of Ukrainian boats being targeted by Russian IEDs while navigating the icy river illustrates these difficulties.
- Jonathan acknowledges the fluidity of the situation with drones, noting that while Ukraine might generally have an advantage, Russia is successfully countering them in certain areas, particularly around Kreminna.
- While a Russian milblogger claims Russian troops raised their flag in central Kreminna, both the ISW and other sources, citing Rebar’s map, deem this claim false.
- The ISW also confirms ongoing fighting near Kreminna, acknowledging the frozen Dnipro River hinders both Ukrainian and Russian operations.
- Jonathan concludes by reiterating the uncertainties surrounding Kreminna, emphasizing the possibility of either a strategic Ukrainian withdrawal or ongoing fighting with an information war at play.
Wrap up
🎦 12:18-12:27⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and expresses hope that the update was informative.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
What is a glide bomb, and how does it differ from other types of bombs? What makes it particularly devastating?
Who or what is "Rebar" in the context of the update?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a frontline update, so I expect a lot of place names and details about troop movements. I need to pay close attention to the specific locations mentioned and any changes in territorial control. It's also important to note any analysis Jonathan provides about the potential impact of these developments. It looks like there will be some discussion of specific instances of fighting and their impact on both sides, particularly in Avdiivka. I'll need to make sure to capture any figures or statistics Jonathan gives. Finally, I need to highlight any notable quotes, especially where Jonathan expresses an opinion or provides insight.
