Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other Christmas News
Table of Contents 📖
"As for Russia, I would like to say that it was my mistake to believe that the number of losses we inflicted on the enemy, even a year ago, could stop them."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War News Update, part one, for December 27th, 2023.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report
🎦 00:09-02:17⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses, noting:
- 790 personnel lost
- 14 tanks and 17 armoured personnel carriers destroyed, indicating ongoing Russian offensives.
- 10 artillery systems lost, potentially influenced by weather conditions.
- The importance of drones for both sides in spotting targets and launching attacks.
- The significant loss of 31 Russian vehicles and fuel tanks.
Jonathan emphasizes that the Ukrainian General Staff figures are considered more reliable than the often "fanciful" Russian reports, and he finds support for their accuracy when compared to data from military analyst Andrew Perpetua.
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Andrew Perpetua's Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Losses
🎦 02:17-04:34⏩
Jonathan highlights Andrew Perpetua's work, a military mapper who analyses social media content, particularly focusing on Russian sources to ensure accurate reporting of Ukrainian losses. Perpetua's data consistently shows a ratio of around 5:1 for Russian to Ukrainian losses, supporting the accuracy of the Ukrainian General Staff figures. Jonathan lists the documented Russian losses:
- A large landing ship.
- Another boat (potentially related to losses in Feodosia).
- A T-90M, Russia's latest breakthrough tank.
- Various other tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
- A significant number of civilian vehicles, contributing to the category of vehicle and fuel tank losses.
He reminds viewers that Perpetua's original posts provide hyperlinks to video evidence for each reported loss.
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Richard Vareka's Insights on Russian Tank Losses in December
🎦 04:34-06:52⏩
Jonathan brings attention to Richard Vareka's (Warspotting) analysis of Russian tank losses, emphasizing the often overlooked aspect of tank warfare. Vareka reports 60 visually confirmed Russian tank losses in December, a figure likely dwarfed by the actual numbers based on daily reported losses. Jonathan examines a chart shared by Vareka that illustrates trends in Russian tank losses throughout the war:
- T-62 losses have increased, likely indicating their greater deployment due to shortages of more modern tanks.
- T-72 and T-80 losses remain substantial, forming the bulk of destroyed tanks.
- T-90 losses, while initially low, have seen an increase as the war progressed, suggesting their greater deployment as Russia's tank reserves dwindle.
Analysis of a T-90 Tank Hit by an FPV Drone
🎦 06:52-08:40⏩
Jonathan analyzes a video showing a Russian T-90 tank being hit by a Ukrainian FPV drone. He notes:
- The impact appears to cause minimal damage, with the tank seemingly operational.
- The crew abandons the tank and flees, potentially out of panic or due to an unseen malfunction.
- Jonathan questions the extent of damage caused by the FPV drone and speculates about the reasons behind the crew's decision to abandon what appears to be a functional tank.
He emphasizes the psychological impact of such attacks, where the perceived threat can outweigh the actual damage.
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Destruction of a Russian BMPT Terminator Vehicle
🎦 08:40-09:12⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Ukrainian FPV drone destroying a rare Russian BMPT Terminator armoured fighting vehicle, noting the Ukrainians' success in eliminating this "much trumped" Russian weapon system.
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Ukrainian Strike on Feodosia and its Implications
🎦 09:12-11:55⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the recent Ukrainian strike on the port of Feodosia in occupied Crimea:
- He highlights the strategic significance of Feodosia, where Russia relocated part of its Black Sea Fleet after Ukraine's increased pressure on Sevastopol.
- Jonathan questions whether Novorossiysk, another Russian port where ships from Feodosia are potentially heading, will be targeted by Ukraine and whether agreements with Western allies restrict such attacks.
- He speculates about Ukraine's potential use of indigenously developed missiles, like the Taurus, to target Novorossiysk in the future.
- He notes Grant Shapps, UK Defence Secretary, confirming the destruction of 20% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, deeming it "pretty embarrassing" for Russia.
Jonathan shares his amusement at encountering pro-Russian trolls online who downplay Russia's losses and military setbacks.
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Details of the Feodosia Attack
🎦 11:55-13:51⏩
Jonathan delves into the specifics of the Feodosia attack, citing Reporting from Ukraine as his source:
- Ukrainian forces used a combined drone and missile attack, deploying drones from Odessa to distract and overwhelm Russian air defenses.
- This tactic created a corridor for four Storm Shadow missiles, launched from two Ukrainian Su-24M jets, to strike their targets successfully.
Jonathan notes the increasing sophistication of Ukrainian tactics, highlighting their ability to exploit weaknesses in Russian air defenses and utilize a combination of weapons systems effectively.
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Speculation Surrounding Ukrainian Su-24M Jets
🎦 13:51-15:20⏩
Jonathan addresses claims that two Ukrainian Su-24M jets were shot down by Russia during the Feodosia attack:
- He suggests that the jets may have landed at Forward Arming and Refueling Points (FARP) near Kherson, disappearing from Russian radar coverage, leading to premature claims of their destruction.
- He speculates that the jets likely refueled at the FARP, enabling them to operate closer to the front lines and extend their range, before continuing their mission to strike Feodosia.
Aftermath of the Feodosia Strike and Russian Losses
🎦 15:20-17:55⏩
Jonathan discusses the aftermath of the Feodosia attack:
- The targeted ship, loaded with hundreds of rockets, artillery shells, and potentially Shahed kamikaze drones, suffered a catastrophic explosion, scattering debris across the port city.
- Another ship, the Kapitan Guriev, sustained damage from the blast.
- A training ship, UTC-150, was sunk, confirming multiple ship losses.
Jonathan questions the effectiveness of Russian air defenses, noting that the Storm Shadow missiles bypassed an S-400 system located near Feodosia. He highlights the conflicting casualty reports from Russian sources:
- Initial claims of one civilian death and two injuries were later revised to 33 sailors missing, 23 injured, and one confirmed dead.
- Other reports, including one from a Crimean source, claim 87 sailors and eight officers were killed.
Jonathan underscores the significance of the attack, emphasizing its impact on Russia's Black Sea Fleet and Ukraine's dominance in the region. He notes Ukraine's ability to resume commercial shipping activities, including grain exports, effectively neutralizing the Russian naval threat.
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Elon Musk's Starlink Decision
🎦 17:55-22:13⏩
Jonathan criticizes Elon Musk's decision to restrict Ukraine's use of Starlink for military operations in Crimea:
- He reminds viewers of Musk's stated reason: fear of escalating the conflict and triggering World War III.
- He argues that despite numerous Ukrainian attacks on Russian military targets in Crimea, including the destruction of warships and the recent strike on Feodosia, no such escalation has occurred.
- He contends that Musk's decision, based on unfounded fears, actually weakened Ukraine's position.
Jonathan criticizes Musk's understanding of the conflict, asserting that he "doesn't have a clue what he's talking about." He emphasizes the lack of a significant Russian response to the attacks on Crimea and calls for continued and expanded military support for Ukraine.
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Russian Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 22:13-24:27⏩
Jonathan discusses recent Russian drone and missile attacks:
- A wave of 46 Shahed drones targeted Ukraine, with 32 shot down, demonstrating the ongoing threat they pose.
- Two Kh-59 missiles were destroyed in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
He notes the ongoing threat posed by Russian missile attacks and the lack of information about potential damage caused by the drones that were not intercepted.
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Russian Attacks on Kherson
🎦 24:27-26:57⏩
Jonathan expresses his outrage over Russia's continued attacks on civilian targets in Kherson, suggesting it is retaliation for the successful Ukrainian attack on Feodosia:
- He highlights Russia's cynical attempt to downplay the war while simultaneously committing atrocities against Ukrainian civilians.
- He describes the shelling of Kherson's main train station as an act of "outright terrorism," as 140 people were waiting to evacuate.
- He mourns the death of a police lieutenant who was killed while helping civilians evacuate.
Jonathan condemns Russia's actions as "morally bankrupt" and "despicable," expressing his frustration with their relentless brutality.
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Russian Use of Drones on the Front Line
🎦 26:57-28:13⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of Russia increasingly using drones to strike Ukrainian front-line positions, particularly around the Dnipro River Delta:
- He connects this tactic to the recent downing of two Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers, which may have led to a decrease in Russian air activity in the region.
- He speculates that Russia is substituting drones, possibly Shaheds, for guided glide bombs, as they are less vulnerable to Ukrainian air defenses like the Patriot system.
He highlights the potential effectiveness of this tactic, as drones present a lower-cost and lower-risk alternative to manned aircraft while still allowing Russia to harass Ukrainian forces.
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Ukrainian Drone Strikes and Russian Air Defence Activity
🎦 28:13-29:46⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian air defense activity:
- Odessa was targeted by drones overnight, with some causing damage despite air defense efforts.
- Izium and Pavlohrad were also under threat from drones.
- Russian air defenses were active for a second consecutive day in the coastal city of Yesk, possibly in response to continued Ukrainian drone attacks.
Jonathan notes the geographical spread of Russian drone activity, indicating their attempts to target multiple regions within Ukraine.
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Ukrainian Intelligence Operation in Crimea
🎦 29:46-30:35⏩
Jonathan highlights a successful Ukrainian intelligence operation in Simferopol, Crimea:
- An ATESH agent identified and reported the movement of Russian S-400 air defense system missiles.
- The information enabled Ukraine to track the missiles to their final destination.
Jonathan emphasizes the effectiveness of Ukrainian intelligence networks operating within occupied Crimea and the importance of such intelligence gathering for targeting Russian military assets.
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General Zaluzhny's Press Conference
🎦 30:35-37:28⏩
Jonathan summarizes key points from General Valeriy Zaluzhny's recent press conference:
- The nature of the war will change in 2024, requiring Ukraine to adapt its strategies and tactics.
- Ukraine's military leadership has identified key challenges and developed solutions, emphasizing the need for ongoing adaptation and innovation.
- Western support remains crucial for supplying Ukrainian forces with necessary weapons and equipment.
- The need for troop rotations is acknowledged, but it remains a complex issue depending on the availability of replacements and the battlefield situation.
Jonathan emphasizes the importance of preserving Ukrainian lives and highlights Zaluzhny's pragmatic approach to troop rotations, balancing the need for fresh forces with the realities of the ongoing conflict.
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General Zaluzhny on Mariinka and the Importance of Adapting Tactics
🎦 37:28-38:58⏩
Jonathan continues summarizing General Zaluzhny's press conference:
- Zaluzhny acknowledges his miscalculation in assuming that inflicting heavy losses would force Russia to retreat or negotiate. He highlights Russia's willingness to endure significant casualties to achieve their objectives.
- He compares Mariinka to Bakhmut, emphasizing that holding onto heavily devastated areas is not always strategically viable.
- Zaluzhny stresses the need for prioritizing the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and a willingness to adapt tactics based on the evolving battlefield situation.
Jonathan agrees with Zaluzhny's assessment, advocating for a strategy focused on long-range strikes against Russian military and logistical targets, minimizing Ukrainian casualties while maximizing damage to the Russian war effort. He calls for increased Western support in providing Ukraine with the necessary weapons, specifically mentioning cruise missiles.
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General Taranivsky's Predictions for 2024
🎦 38:58-40:16⏩
Jonathan introduces Brigadier General Oleksandr Taranivsky's predictions:
- Taranivsky, commander of the Tavria Operational and Strategic Group of Forces, believes 2024 will be more challenging.
- He predicts increased Russian activity across the front line, driven by their goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.
Jonathan reiterates his strategy recommendations, urging a defensive posture focused on attriting Russian forces while maximizing long-range strikes using missiles, HIMARS, Excalibur rounds, and other advanced weaponry.
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Russian Chemical Attacks
🎦 40:16-40:43⏩
Jonathan concludes the news update with a stark reminder of Russian war crimes:
- Over 465 chemical attacks on Ukrainian forces since the invasion's start.
- 81 recorded cases in the past month alone.
- Over 160,000 recorded Russian war crimes in total.
He reiterates the clear moral distinction between Ukraine and Russia, emphasizing the brutality and inhumanity of Russia's actions.
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Wrap up
🎦 40:43-41:12⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support, acknowledging the lengthy video and sharing his appreciation for Jimmy World's cover of "Last Christmas." He signs off, wishing his viewers well.
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