Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"If Russia have been tasked with gaining the whole of the Donbass, then, of course, just like Bakhmut, they are going to have to take Avdipka. You can't take the Donbass without taking these two places."
Hello Team!
Jonathan explains he had a one-week suspension from YouTube for vague reasons and as a result, he is not allowed to have chapters on his videos for three months. The videos will now be one long segment rather than split into chapters.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
According to Ukrainian figures, which Jonathan believes are fairly accurate, Russian losses for the previous day included:
- 820 personnel (a significant uptick)
- 4 tanks
- 10 APCs
- 12 artillery systems (worthy of note)
- 3 MLRS
- 1 aircraft (footage available)
- 5 drones
- 8 vehicles and fuel tanks
The losses, particularly of personnel, are high compared to the average for the year. The question remains how many Ukrainians were lost in the same period and if the ratios are similar to Russian losses.
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Krasnodar Explosion
Locals in Krasnodar, east of the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, reported an explosion at a flight school. The mayor said there was no information on any incident and it was possibly a sonic boom. More confirmation is needed.
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Zaporizhzhia Residential Block Hit
The number of casualties from the Russian S-300 missile strike on a residential block in Zaporizhzhia has increased. 10 people, including a child, have died, 7 more are missing, and 8 suffered injuries. The incident is turning out to have a significant civilian toll.
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Nikopol and Marhanets Shelling
- Nikopol and Marhanets, located on the Dnipro River near the Zaporizhzhia power plant, are hit with shelling on a nightly basis, often in residential areas.
- There are reports that a significant number of Russian artillery pieces were taken out on the southern shores of the reservoir, likely in response to the consistent attacks on these two cities.
- Despite this, Nikopol was hit again as usual.
Offensive Launched Near Avdiivka
Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces have launched a major offensive on the Avdiivka front within the last several hours. Regular and airborne troops supported by heavy armor and combat aircraft are said to be involved. If Russia aims to take the whole Donbas, they will need to capture both Avdiivka and Bakhmut, the two hardest areas to take that have long caused issues for them. Taking the Donbas is impossible without securing these two key locations.
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Crimea Trench Building
Russia seems to be heavily fortifying and building trenches along the beaches of occupied Crimea, possibly expecting a D-Day style landing, though Jonathan doubts this will actually happen. Satellite imagery shows extensive trench networks, dragon's teeth, and other fortifications all along the Crimean coastline, indicating how seriously Russia is taking the defense of the peninsula. The scale of construction is substantial with proper trench systems using wooden supports.
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Military Aid
- German defense manufacturer Rheinmetall is negotiating building a tank factory in Ukraine that could produce up to 400 Panther tanks annually. Having such an obvious target in Ukraine seems risky.
- Norwegian Leopard 2A4NO tanks are being prepared for transfer to Ukraine.
- The first armored vehicles independently purchased by the Serhii Prytula Foundation have arrived in Ukraine, including Spartan APCs, FV434 medical evacuation vehicles and other equipment. While older, they can still be useful, similar to the M113s being used.
- Germany has requested to buy back an undisclosed number of Leopard 2s in storage with the Swiss military. Switzerland has around 96 tanks in reserve. It's unclear if they will agree but it would be very helpful for Ukraine if they could get them.
- The EU will provide Ukraine with 5,700 solar panels to help with Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and improve energy independence.
Ammunition Shortages
Ukraine has asked the EU for 250,000 artillery shells per month. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov says Ukrainian forces are only firing a fifth of the rounds they could due to lack of supplies. This shortage will make it very difficult for Ukraine to be as effective as possible on the battlefield, though Russia likely faces ammunition challenges as well.
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Geopolitics
- Russian President Putin signed a decree stating that if Russian military defense companies fail to meet deadlines, martial law will be declared and the companies placed under direct government control. This indicates Russia is preparing for a long war and taking an authoritarian approach to ensuring production.
- Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was mocked by the audience at the G20 summit in India when he claimed Russia did not start the war in 2022. The laughter in response to the Russian narrative should tell them something.
- An EU diplomat pushed back on the idea that power in Europe is shifting east to countries like Poland, saying "on any other topic other than Ukraine, they don't even pretend to care." While Poland has been very strong on Ukraine, the diplomat argues this does not reflect a broader long-term power shift.
- On the Bryansk incident with alleged Ukrainian "saboteurs," Jonathan remains convinced this was not done at Ukraine's behest. The neo-Nazi Denis Nikitin who led the group has past FSB links. If Ukraine ordered this, they would not have wanted him publicizing it afterwards. At most, it was done independently or with post-hoc FSB involvement to create a provocation.
Fortifications and Offensives
- A map shows the extensive fortifications Russia is building, especially around Zaporizhzhia and along the front lines. They appear to be expecting a Ukrainian attack from the Zaporizhzhia or northern Donetsk directions based on their defenses.
- The head of Ukraine's HUR intelligence believes the decisive battle between Russia and Ukraine will occur this spring and be the last before the war ends. This could indicate confidence in their planned counteroffensives.
- The "I Want to Live" hotline reports nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers have surrendered through it since September 2022. If accurate, this is a massive blow to Russian capacity, though the figures need verification.
Gas Prices
In a final note, natural gas prices in Europe have fallen below 45 euros per megawatt hour, lower than before the war began. This goes against Putin's aim to hold Europe hostage over energy. Declining prices will frustrate Putin as hydrocarbons were one of his key geopolitical weapons to gain leverage and support in Europe.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan asks viewers to like, subscribe and share the video. He appreciates the support and will be back with a frontline update, though it is difficult with it being Saturday.
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