Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"You would if you could, but you aren't, so you can't."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:43⏩
Jonathan begins with a personal anecdote about a car accident he witnessed involving a 91-year-old driver who flipped his car on a quiet suburban street. He describes the scene, the response from emergency services, and the driver's condition. He then apologises for getting sidetracked and transitions to the main topic of the video - the Ukraine war.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Data on Russian Losses
🎦 02:43-09:39⏩
Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day, highlighting:
- 1,670 personnel.
- 7 tanks.
- 31 AFVs.
- 26 artillery systems.
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system.
- 80 vehicles and fuel tanks.
- 1 piece of special equipment.
He delves deeper into the data using a chart from "Dell Stats" to analyse trends in Russian anti-air warfare system losses. He observes:
- A decrease in the number of anti-air systems being destroyed recently.
- This could indicate that the Russians have fewer systems left or that they are better at concealing them.
- He speculates that the decrease is likely due to a depletion of Russian anti-air assets, given that they cannot be replaced at the rate they are being destroyed.
- This has implications for the "air defence coverage of the occupied parts of Ukraine, but also back into Russia".
- He questions whether this means Ukraine has become less effective at targeting these systems or if there are simply fewer targets available.
Analysis of Visually Confirmed Losses (Andrew Perpetua)
🎦 09:39-16:18⏩
Jonathan analyses two days' worth of visually confirmed losses using data from Andrew Perpetua, noting the inclusion of footage from "Magyar" which may skew the timeframe for some losses. Two days ago:
- Russian personnel losses: 128
- Ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses: Approximately 1.33:1 in total equipment and 1.5:1 in combat assets.
- Notable Ukrainian losses: Several APCs, MRAPs, an air defence system (Strela-10), and a damaged M777 howitzer.
- Notable Russian losses: 6 tanks, 3 damaged IFVs, 1 damaged AFV, several APCs, MTLBs, and MRAPs.
Yesterday:
- Russian personnel losses: 118
- Ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses: Approximately 1.66:1 total and similar for combat asset losses.
- Notable Ukrainian losses: A counter-battery radar, an abandoned Leopard 2A6 tank, 4 IFVs, 3 tanks (including the Leopard 2), and around a dozen APCs.
- Notable Russian losses: An engineering vehicle, a UGV mine layer, 3 pieces of artillery (including a destroyed Uragan MLRS and a damaged Grad MLRS), 7 tanks, and 8 IFVs.
Jonathan observes that while the Russians are experiencing greater losses, they are primarily in trucks and civilian vehicles, with combat asset losses remaining fairly consistent for both sides. He points out the high attrition rate of infantry fighting vehicles and APCs for both sides.
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Approximate Number of Missing Russian Soldiers Revealed
🎦 16:18-19:07⏩
Jonathan presents data revealing the approximate number of missing Russian soldiers based on a mistake by Anna Tsivileva, a Russian Deputy Defence Minister and Putin's niece.
- The Russian authorities have received 48,000 DNA test requests to search for missing soldiers.
- This information was accidentally revealed and subsequently ordered to be suppressed.
- While not all missing soldiers are dead, Jonathan points out that Russian units often leave their dead on the battlefield to avoid reporting casualties and paying compensation to families.
- Combining this figure with the conservative estimate of 81,000 Russian deaths reported by Mediazona and BBC Russia, the total number of Russian casualties could be at least 130,000.
- This figure excludes losses from the LPR and DPR, suggesting that actual casualties are likely much higher.
Unsustainable Russian Losses and Recruitment Strategies
🎦 19:07-22:57⏩
Jonathan elaborates on his frequent assertion that Russian losses are "unsustainable", clarifying that this does not preclude Russian territorial gains. He explains that "unsustainable" means that Russia cannot continue its current practices without making significant changes. He provides examples of these changes:
- Reliance on convicts, conscripts, and mercenaries instead of well-trained troops.
- Use of outdated equipment from deep storage.
- A video showing a Russian BMP being led across a minefield by a cyclist - a clear sign of resource scarcity.
Jonathan emphasizes the absurdity of this situation, stating that the Russians "wouldn't be doing that" if they had other options. He argues that these changes in behaviour are indicative of Russia's inability to sustain its previous level of operations.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Targets
🎦 22:57-25:15⏩
Jonathan presents footage of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian building, demonstrating the power of guided glide bombs. He notes:
- Two sections of the building are completely destroyed.
- He speculates that the Ukrainians likely estimated the number of personnel inside and added those to the casualty figures.
- He highlights the similar use of these bombs by the Russians against Ukrainian targets, expressing a desire to understand trends in their usage and whether the Russians are facing limitations in their deployment.
Overnight Drone Strikes and Ukrainian Counter-Attacks
🎦 25:15-27:58⏩
Jonathan reports on a significant wave of overnight drone strikes and potential Ukrainian counter-attacks, including:
- A wave of 50 drones, with 29 shot down, 18 suppressed by electronic warfare, and one diverted towards Russia, leaving two potentially hitting targets.
- Explosions reported near the Diaghilevo airbase in Ryazan Oblast, although the results are unknown.
- Reports of drone attacks on the port of Novorossiysk, where the Black Sea Fleet is currently stationed, with the local governor claiming all drones were shot down. Jonathan expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of these naval drones due to the use of protective booms and Russian countermeasures.
- A strike on the Kadyrov Special Police Regiment in Grozny, Chechnya, with no casualties reported but potentially linked to ongoing internal disputes. Jonathan questions the feasibility of Ukrainian drones reaching such a distant target.
Other News Updates
🎦 27:58-32:29⏩
Jonathan provides updates on various news items:
- Severed internet cables between Finland and Sweden: Initially suspected sabotage, now confirmed to be caused by excavation.
- Russian channel's stance on territorial concessions: A Russian channel argues that the constitution does not permit the exchange of Russian territories, including Kursk, implying that it will be recaptured by force. Jonathan notes the significance of Kursk as a bargaining chip for Ukraine.
- Death of Ukrainian mayor in Russian captivity: Yevgeny Makvayev, mayor of Dnepropetrovsk in Zaporizhia, died after nearly three years in Russian captivity. He was reportedly brutally tortured and suffered life-threatening conditions.
Forced Recruitment of Students in Moscow
🎦 32:29-32:29⏩
- Jonathan highlights forced recruitment efforts in Moscow, a departure from previous patterns, indicating a growing Russian need for troops.
- Reports indicate that students are being targeted, with videos showing forced recruitment and attempts to break into student apartments.
- Jonathan notes the potential implications of targeting students in Moscow, as it could spark unrest among the middle class and elite.
- He links this to Putin's recent increase in the size of the Russian army by 180,000, suggesting that this is likely a replacement for losses rather than a genuine expansion.
Russian Economic Crisis
🎦 32:29-38:11⏩
Jonathan presents a detailed analysis of the Russian economic crisis, drawing on information from various sources, including Tataragami and Vladimir Milov. Key points include:
- Russia's budget deficit: 3.3 trillion rubles
- Key interest rate: 21%, with expectations of further increases.
- Job vacancies: 2 to 3 million, indicative of a labour shortage.
- Hyperinflation versus economic freeze: Russia faces a difficult choice between these two options, with rising interest rates intended to curb inflation but also damaging the real sector of the economy.
- Impact of war on the economy: War-driven military spending fuels inflation and ruble depreciation, making imports more expensive. While a weaker ruble should benefit exports, sanctions and reluctance from countries like China and India to fully open their markets hinder Russian sales.
- Lack of access to international financial markets: Russia cannot borrow from Western governments or the IMF, and China and other global south countries are unwilling to provide substantial loans.
- Depletion of state reserves: The National Wealth Fund is dwindling, and ruble depreciation further erodes its value.
- Labour market crisis: Job vacancies are increasing across multiple industries, and there are proposals to hire teenagers under 18 and pensioners to address the shortage. This precarious labour market situation makes a second wave of mobilization highly unlikely.
Jonathan emphasizes the dire state of the Russian economy, with no positive indicators on the horizon. He sees the economic collapse of Russia as the "biggest hope for Ukraine" and stresses the importance of US sanctions in expediting this outcome.
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Mental Health Centres in Ukraine
🎦 38:11-42:13⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Ukraine, reporting on the launch of 200 mental health centres. He acknowledges the importance of this initiative, recognizing:
- The profound psychological impact of the war on both military personnel and civilians.
- The long-term mental health challenges that Ukraine will face.
He contrasts this with the likely situation in Russia, which he believes will also suffer generational trauma from the war but is unlikely to receive the same level of support. Jonathan highlights the contrasting approaches of Russia's allies and Ukraine's supporters:
- China and India primarily seek economic advantage from Russia, exploiting its weakened position.
- Ukraine's supporters recognize its strategic importance and provide genuine aid to secure a Ukrainian victory, which ultimately benefits their own security.
"Peaky Blinders" Drone Unit
🎦 42:13-43:48⏩
Jonathan concludes the video with a lighthearted segment about a Ukrainian drone unit named after the popular TV show "Peaky Blinders."
- The unit received authentic hats from Stephen Knight, the show's creator, signed by star Cillian Murphy.
- Jonathan expresses admiration for the unit, sharing a photo and praising their "cool as a cucumber" demeanour.
Wrap Up
🎦 43:48-43:49⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers, bids them farewell, and signs off with his signature "toodlepips."
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